Fiscal Buffers For Natural Disasters In Pacific Island Countries
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Fiscal Buffers For Natural Disasters In Pacific Island Countries
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Author : Hidetaka Nishizawa
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2019-07-12
Fiscal Buffers For Natural Disasters In Pacific Island Countries written by Hidetaka Nishizawa and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019-07-12 with Nature categories.
Pacific island countries (PICs) are vulnerable severe natural disasters, especially cyclones, inflicting large losses on their economies. In the aftermath of disasters, PIC governments face revenue losses and spending pressures to address post-disaster relief and recovery efforts. This paper estimates the effects of severe natural disasters on fiscal revenues and expenditure in PICs. These are combined with information on the frequency of large disasters to calculate the rate of budgetary savings needed to build appropriate fiscal buffers. Fiscal buffers provide self-insurance against natural disaster shocks and facilitate quick disbursement for recovery and relief efforts, and protection of spending on essential services and infrastructure. The estimates can provide a benchmark for policymakers, and should be adjusted to take into account other sources of financing, as well as budget risks from less severe as well as more frequent disasters.
A Possible Approach To Fiscal Rules In Small Islands Incorporating Natural Disasters And Climate Change
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Author : Ryota Nakatani
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2019-09-06
A Possible Approach To Fiscal Rules In Small Islands Incorporating Natural Disasters And Climate Change written by Ryota Nakatani and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019-09-06 with Business & Economics categories.
A big challenge for the economic development of small island countries is dealing with external shocks. The Pacific Islands are vulnerable to natural disasters, climate change, commodity price changes, and uncertain donor grants. The question that arises is how should small developing countries formulate a fiscal policy to achieve economic stability and fiscal sustainability when prone to various shocks? We study how natural disasters affect long-term debt dynamics and propose fiscal policy rules that could help insulate the economy from such unexpected shocks. We propose fiscal rules to address these shocks and uncertainties using the example of Papua New Guinea. Our study finds the advantages of expenditure rules, especially a recurrent expenditure rule based on non-resource and non-grant revenue, interdependently determined by government debt and budget balance targets with expected disaster shocks. This paper contributes to the literature and policy dialogue by theoretically analyzing the impact of natural disasters on debt sustainability and proposing fiscal rules against natural disasters and climate changes. Our fiscal policy framework is practically applicable for many developing countries facing increasing frequency and impact of natural disasters and climate change. Our rules-based fiscal framework is crucial for sustainable and countercyclical macroeconomic policies to build resilience against devastating natural hazards.
The Economic Impact Of Natural Disasters In Pacific Island Countries Adaptation And Preparedness
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Author : Dongyeol Lee
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2018-05-10
The Economic Impact Of Natural Disasters In Pacific Island Countries Adaptation And Preparedness written by Dongyeol Lee and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018-05-10 with Nature categories.
Pacific island countries are highly vulnerable to various natural disasters which are destructive, unpredictable and occur frequently. The frequency and scale of these shocks heightens the importance of medium-term economic and fiscal planning to minimize the adverse impact of disasters on economic development. This paper identifies the intensity of natural disasters for each country in the Pacific based on the distribution of damage and population affected by disasters, and estimates the impact of disasters on economic growth and international trade using a panel regression. The results show that “severe” disasters have a significant and negative impact on economic growth and lead to a deterioration of the fiscal and trade balance. We also find that the negative impact on growth is stronger for more intense disasters. Going further this paper proposes a simple and consistent method to adjust IMF staff’s economic projections and debt sustainability analysis for disaster shocks for the Pacific islands. Better incorporating the economic impact of natural disasters in the medium- and long-term economic planning would help policy makers improve fiscal policy decisions and to be better adapted and prepared for natural disasters.
Enhancing Macroeconomic Resilience To Natural Disasters And Climate Change In The Small States Of The Pacific
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Author : Ezequiel Cabezon
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2015-06-19
Enhancing Macroeconomic Resilience To Natural Disasters And Climate Change In The Small States Of The Pacific written by Ezequiel Cabezon and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2015-06-19 with Nature categories.
Natural disasters and climate change are interrelated macro-critical issues affecting all Pacific small states to varying degrees. In addition to their devastating human costs, these events damage growth prospects and worsen countries’ fiscal positions. This is the first cross-country IMF study assessing the impact of natural disasters on growth in the Pacific islands as a group. A panel VAR analysis suggests that, for damage and losses equivalent to 1 percent of GDP, growth drops by 0.7 percentage point in the year of the disaster. We also find that, during 1980-2014, trend growth was 0.7 percentage point lower than it would have been without natural disasters. The paper also discusses a multi-pillar framework to enhance resilience to natural disasters at the national, regional, and multilateral levels and the importance of enhancing countries’ risk-management capacities. It highlights how this approach can provide a more strategic and less ad hoc framework for strengthening both ex ante and ex post resilience and what role the IMF can play.
Economic And Fiscal Impacts Of Disasters In The Pacific
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Author : Asian Development Bank
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2018-04
Economic And Fiscal Impacts Of Disasters In The Pacific written by Asian Development Bank and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018-04 with Business & Economics categories.
Pacific island countries need to build their fiscal and economic resilience to climate change and natural disasters as these have lasting consequences on their livelihoods, economies, and fiscal balances. Climate change and natural disasters can have lasting consequences on livelihoods, economies, and fiscal balances-spanning immediate reconstruction costs and fiscal shocks to long-term halts in tourism and agriculture economies. Globally, the most exposed to these impacts are the Pacific island countries. The Asian Development Bank is working closely with its Pacific developing member countries to prepare for and respond to the effects of climate change and natural hazards. This publication examines the often-overlooked dimension of resilience planning-how to brace economies for shocks caused by climate change and hazard events. It analyzes the exposure and vulnerability of Pacific economies to disaster events and outlines key resources for building fiscal and economic resilience.
Excerpt Resilience And Growth In The Small States Of The Pacific
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Author : Hoe Ee Khor
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2016-04-07
Excerpt Resilience And Growth In The Small States Of The Pacific written by Hoe Ee Khor and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016-04-07 with Nature categories.
This is a prepublication excerpt of Resilience and Growth in the Small States of the Pacific.
Solomon Islands
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Author : International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2020-02-18
Solomon Islands written by International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020-02-18 with Business & Economics categories.
This 2019 Article IV Consultation with the Solomon Islands highlights that the country has made substantial progress since the Tensions in the early 2000s but faces considerable economic and governance challenges and is highly vulnerable to natural disasters. Finding new sources of growth is becoming urgent with the decline in logging. The consultation focused on similar issues to last year—restoring fiscal buffers to build resilience, strengthening public financial management and public investment management, setting a medium-term fiscal strategy, improving governance, improving exchange rate management and building conditions for sustainable growth. The report recommends developing a holistic approach to medium-term fiscal policy by setting a realistic spending envelope and establishing a medium-term revenue strategy. Together with strengthened budget planning and expenditure control, this would provide greater budget predictability and support natural disaster contingency planning. It is also imperative to strengthen enforcement of governance standards, apply the mining fiscal regime rigorously, improve transparency and advance the anti-corruption agenda.
Traditional Disaster Reduction In Pacific Island Communities
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Author : John R. Campbell
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2006
Traditional Disaster Reduction In Pacific Island Communities written by John R. Campbell and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2006 with Disaster relief categories.
Vanuatu
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Author : International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2019-06-13
Vanuatu written by International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019-06-13 with Business & Economics categories.
Four years after Cyclone Pam struck Vanuatu causing extensive damages, reconstruction is near completion with full recovery in sight. The authorities are now focused on implementing their broader development plans that were slowed by the rebuilding process, which will require fiscal discipline and reforms to maintain debt sustainability. The authorities should continue their constructive engagement with development partners for technical assistance, capacity development, and concessional and grant-based funding. In parallel continuing to reform and strengthen the governance of institutions and removing vulnerabilities to corruption will be important.
A Possible Approach To Fiscal Rules In Small Islands Incorporating Natural Disasters And Climate Change
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Author : Ryota Nakatani
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2019-09-06
A Possible Approach To Fiscal Rules In Small Islands Incorporating Natural Disasters And Climate Change written by Ryota Nakatani and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019-09-06 with Business & Economics categories.
A big challenge for the economic development of small island countries is dealing with external shocks. The Pacific Islands are vulnerable to natural disasters, climate change, commodity price changes, and uncertain donor grants. The question that arises is how should small developing countries formulate a fiscal policy to achieve economic stability and fiscal sustainability when prone to various shocks? We study how natural disasters affect long-term debt dynamics and propose fiscal policy rules that could help insulate the economy from such unexpected shocks. We propose fiscal rules to address these shocks and uncertainties using the example of Papua New Guinea. Our study finds the advantages of expenditure rules, especially a recurrent expenditure rule based on non-resource and non-grant revenue, interdependently determined by government debt and budget balance targets with expected disaster shocks. This paper contributes to the literature and policy dialogue by theoretically analyzing the impact of natural disasters on debt sustainability and proposing fiscal rules against natural disasters and climate changes. Our fiscal policy framework is practically applicable for many developing countries facing increasing frequency and impact of natural disasters and climate change. Our rules-based fiscal framework is crucial for sustainable and countercyclical macroeconomic policies to build resilience against devastating natural hazards.