Foundations Of Decision Analysis
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Foundations Of Decision Analysis
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Author : Ronald A. Howard
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2015-01-21
Foundations Of Decision Analysis written by Ronald A. Howard and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2015-01-21 with Decision making categories.
For courses in Decision Making and Engineering. The Fundamentals of Analyzing and Making Decisions Foundations of Decision Analysis is a groundbreaking text that explores the art of decision making, both in life and in professional settings. By exploring themes such as dealing with uncertainty and understanding the distinction between a decision and its outcome, the First Edition teaches readers to achieve clarity of action in any situation. The book treats decision making as an evolutionary process from a scientific standpoint. Strategic decision-making analysis is presented as a tool to help students understand, discuss, and settle on important life choices. Through this text, readers will understand the specific thought process that occurs behind approaching any decision to make easier and better life choices for themselves.
Handbook Of Decision Analysis
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Author : Gregory S. Parnell
language : en
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Release Date : 2013-01-24
Handbook Of Decision Analysis written by Gregory S. Parnell and has been published by John Wiley & Sons this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-01-24 with Business & Economics categories.
A ONE-OF-A-KIND GUIDE TO THE BEST PRACTICES IN DECISION ANALYSIS Decision analysis provides powerful tools for addressing complex decisions that involve uncertainty and multiple objectives, yet most training materials on the subject overlook the soft skills that are essential for success in the field. This unique resource fills this gap in the decision analysis literature and features both soft personal/interpersonal skills and the hard technical skills involving mathematics and modeling. Readers will learn how to identify and overcome the numerous challenges of decision making, choose the appropriate decision process, lead and manage teams, and create value for their organization. Performing modeling analysis, assessing risk, and implementing decisions are also addressed throughout. Additional features include: Key insights gleaned from decision analysis applications and behavioral decision analysis research Integrated coverage of the techniques of single- and multiple-objective decision analysis Multiple qualitative and quantitative techniques presented for each key decision analysis task Three substantive real-world case studies illustrating diverse strategies for dealing with the challenges of decision making Extensive references for mathematical proofs and advanced topics The Handbook of Decision Analysis is an essential reference for academics and practitioners in various fields including business, operations research, engineering, and science. The book also serves as a supplement for courses at the upper-undergraduate and graduate levels.
Foundations Of Risk Analysis
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Author : Terje Aven
language : en
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Release Date : 2012-02-02
Foundations Of Risk Analysis written by Terje Aven and has been published by John Wiley & Sons this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-02-02 with Mathematics categories.
Foundations of Risk Analysis presents the issues core to risk analysis – understanding what risk means, expressing risk, building risk models, addressing uncertainty, and applying probability models to real problems. The author provides the readers with the knowledge and basic thinking they require to successfully manage risk and uncertainty to support decision making. This updated edition reflects recent developments on risk and uncertainty concepts, representations and treatment. New material in Foundations of Risk Analysis includes: An up to date presentation of how to understand, define and describe risk based on research carried out in recent years. A new definition of the concept of vulnerability consistent with the understanding of risk. Reflections on the need for seeing beyond probabilities to measure/describe uncertainties. A presentation and discussion of a method for assessing the importance of assumptions (uncertainty factors) in the background knowledge that the subjective probabilities are based on A brief introduction to approaches that produce interval (imprecise) probabilities instead of exact probabilities. In addition the new version provides a number of other improvements, for example, concerning the use of cost-benefit analyses and the As Low As Reasonably Practicable (ALARP) principle. Foundations of Risk Analysis provides a framework for understanding, conducting and using risk analysis suitable for advanced undergraduates, graduates, analysts and researchers from statistics, engineering, finance, medicine and the physical sciences, as well as for managers facing decision making problems involving risk and uncertainty.
Foundations Of Decision Analysis Global Edition
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Author : Ali E. Abbas
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2015-01-28
Foundations Of Decision Analysis Global Edition written by Ali E. Abbas and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2015-01-28 with categories.
This text explores the art of decision making, both in life and in professional settings. By exploring themes such as dealing with uncertainty and understanding the distinction between a decision and its outcome, the first edition teaches students to achieve clarity of action in any situation. The book treats decision making as an evolutionary process from a scientific standpoint. Strategic decision-making analysis is presented as a tool to help students understand, discuss, and settle on important life choices. Through this text, students will understand the specific thought process that occurs behind approaching any decision to make easier and better life choices for themselves.
Bayesian Decision Analysis
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Author : Jim Q. Smith
language : en
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Release Date : 2010-09-23
Bayesian Decision Analysis written by Jim Q. Smith and has been published by Cambridge University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2010-09-23 with Mathematics categories.
Bayesian decision analysis supports principled decision making in complex domains. This textbook takes the reader from a formal analysis of simple decision problems to a careful analysis of the sometimes very complex and data rich structures confronted by practitioners. The book contains basic material on subjective probability theory and multi-attribute utility theory, event and decision trees, Bayesian networks, influence diagrams and causal Bayesian networks. The author demonstrates when and how the theory can be successfully applied to a given decision problem, how data can be sampled and expert judgements elicited to support this analysis, and when and how an effective Bayesian decision analysis can be implemented. Evolving from a third-year undergraduate course taught by the author over many years, all of the material in this book will be accessible to a student who has completed introductory courses in probability and mathematical statistics.
The Foundations Of Causal Decision Theory
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Author : James M. Joyce
language : en
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Release Date : 1999-04-13
The Foundations Of Causal Decision Theory written by James M. Joyce and has been published by Cambridge University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1999-04-13 with Science categories.
This book defends the view that any adequate account of rational decision making must take a decision maker's beliefs about causal relations into account. The early chapters of the book introduce the non-specialist to the rudiments of expected utility theory. The major technical advance offered by the book is a 'representation theorem' that shows that both causal decision theory and its main rival, Richard Jeffrey's logic of decision, are both instances of a more general conditional decision theory. The book solves a long-standing problem for Jeffrey's theory by showing for the first time how to obtain a unique utility and probability representation for preferences and judgements of comparative likelihood. The book also contains a major new discussion of what it means to suppose that some event occurs or that some proposition is true. The most complete and robust defence of causal decision theory available.
Risk Analysis Foundations Models And Methods
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Author : Louis Anthony Cox Jr.
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2012-12-06
Risk Analysis Foundations Models And Methods written by Louis Anthony Cox Jr. and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-12-06 with Business & Economics categories.
Risk Analysis: Foundations, Models, and Methods fully addresses the questions of "What is health risk analysis?" and "How can its potentialities be developed to be most valuable to public health decision-makers and other health risk managers?" Risk analysis provides methods and principles for answering these questions. It is divided into methods for assessing, communicating, and managing health risks. Risk assessment quantitatively estimates the health risks to individuals and to groups from hazardous exposures and from the decisions or activities that create them. It applies specialized models and methods to quantify likely exposures and their resulting health risks. Its goal is to produce information to improve decisions. It does this by relating alternative decisions to their probable consequences and by identifying those decisions that make preferred outcomes more likely. Health risk assessment draws on explicit engineering, biomathematical, and statistical consequence models to describe or simulate the causal relations between actions and their probable effects on health. Risk communication characterizes and presents information about health risks and uncertainties to decision-makers and stakeholders. Risk management applies principles for choosing among alternative decision alternatives or actions that affect exposure, health risks, or their consequences.
Value Of Information In The Earth Sciences
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Author : Jo Eidsvik
language : en
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Release Date : 2015-11-19
Value Of Information In The Earth Sciences written by Jo Eidsvik and has been published by Cambridge University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2015-11-19 with Business & Economics categories.
This book presents a unified framework for assessing the value of potential data-gathering schemes, with a focus on the Earth sciences.
Portfolio Decision Analysis
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Author : Ahti Salo
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2011-08-12
Portfolio Decision Analysis written by Ahti Salo and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2011-08-12 with Business & Economics categories.
Portfolio Decision Analysis: Improved Methods for Resource Allocation provides an extensive, up-to-date coverage of decision analytic methods which help firms and public organizations allocate resources to 'lumpy' investment opportunities while explicitly recognizing relevant financial and non-financial evaluation criteria and the presence of alternative investment opportunities. In particular, it discusses the evolution of these methods, presents new methodological advances and illustrates their use across several application domains. The book offers a many-faceted treatment of portfolio decision analysis (PDA). Among other things, it (i) synthesizes the state-of-play in PDA, (ii) describes novel methodologies, (iii) fosters the deployment of these methodologies, and (iv) contributes to the strengthening of research on PDA. Portfolio problems are widely regarded as the single most important application context of decision analysis, and, with its extensive and unique coverage of these problems, this book is a much-needed addition to the literature. The book also presents innovative treatments of new methodological approaches and their uses in applications. The intended audience consists of practitioners and researchers who wish to gain a good understanding of portfolio decision analysis and insights into how PDA methods can be leveraged in different application contexts. The book can also be employed in courses at the post-graduate level.
Foundations Of Decision Support Systems
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Author : Robert H. Bonczek
language : en
Publisher: Academic Press
Release Date : 2014-05-10
Foundations Of Decision Support Systems written by Robert H. Bonczek and has been published by Academic Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014-05-10 with Business & Economics categories.
Foundations of Decision Support Systems focuses on the frameworks, strategies, and techniques involved in decision support systems (DSS). The publication first takes a look at information processing, decision making, and decision support; frameworks for organizational information processing and decision making; and representative decision support systems. Discussions focus on classification scheme for DSS, abilities required for decision making, division of information-processing labor within an organization, and decision support. The text then elaborates on ideas in decision support, formalizations of purposive systems, and conceptual and operational constructs for building a data base knowledge system. The book takes a look at building a data base knowledge system, language systems for data base knowledge systems, and problem-processing systems for data base knowledge systems. Topics include problem processors for computationally oriented DSS, major varieties of logical data structures, and indirect associations among concepts. The manuscript also examines operationalizing modeling knowledge in terms of predicate calculus; combining the data base and formal logic approaches; and the language and knowledge systems of a DSS based on formal logic. The publication is a valuable reference for researchers interested in decision support systems.