Fundamentals Speculation And The Pricing Of Crude Oil Futures
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Fundamentals Speculation And The Pricing Of Crude Oil Futures
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Author : Thomas Hoehl
language : en
Publisher: GRIN Verlag
Release Date : 2011-11
Fundamentals Speculation And The Pricing Of Crude Oil Futures written by Thomas Hoehl and has been published by GRIN Verlag this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2011-11 with Business & Economics categories.
Master's Thesis from the year 2011 in the subject Economics - Finance, grade: 8,0, Maastricht University (School of Business and Economics), language: English, abstract: This study finds that while a large part of the variation in crude oil futures prices is driven by fundamental factors, financial investment and speculation has the potential to aggravate reactions to changing fundamental variables and furthermore move prices on its own. The evidence is gathered by performing linear regressions and Granger Causality tests on futures returns, position data of different categories of futures traders on the New York Mercantile Exchange and proxies for relevant fundamental factors such as equity and exchange rate returns gathered from August 2006 to December 2010. While higher prices for crude oil naturally come along with increasing physical demand and finite world supply, future regulation might temper market volatility and guarantee that prices reflect a sustainable physical market equilibrium. The study also gives an overview of commodity market regulation and position limits on futures markets.
Oil Price Volatility And The Role Of Speculation
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Author : Samya Beidas-Strom
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2014-12-12
Oil Price Volatility And The Role Of Speculation written by Samya Beidas-Strom and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014-12-12 with Business & Economics categories.
How much does speculation contribute to oil price volatility? We revisit this contentious question by estimating a sign-restricted structural vector autoregression (SVAR). First, using a simple storage model, we show that revisions to expectations regarding oil market fundamentals and the effect of mispricing in oil derivative markets can be observationally equivalent in a SVAR model of the world oil market à la Kilian and Murphy (2013), since both imply a positive co-movement of oil prices and inventories. Second, we impose additional restrictions on the set of admissible models embodying the assumption that the impact from noise trading shocks in oil derivative markets is temporary. Our additional restrictions effectively put a bound on the contribution of speculation to short-term oil price volatility (lying between 3 and 22 percent). This estimated short-run impact is smaller than that of flow demand shocks but possibly larger than that of flow supply shocks.
The Role Of Speculation In Oil Markets
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Author : Bassam Fattouh
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2012
The Role Of Speculation In Oil Markets written by Bassam Fattouh and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012 with Petroleum products categories.
The Role Of Market Speculation In Rising Oil And Gas Prices
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Author :
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2006
The Role Of Market Speculation In Rising Oil And Gas Prices written by and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2006 with Natural gas categories.
Understanding Oil Prices
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Author : Salvatore Carollo
language : en
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Release Date : 2011-11-22
Understanding Oil Prices written by Salvatore Carollo and has been published by John Wiley & Sons this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2011-11-22 with Business & Economics categories.
It’s a fair bet that most of what you think you know about oil prices is wrong. Despite the massive price fluctuations of the past decade, the received wisdom on the subject has remained fundamentally unchanged since the 1970s. When asked, most people – including politicians, financial analysts and pundits – will respond with a tired litany of reasons ranging from increased Chinese and Indian competition for diminishing resources and tensions in the Middle East, to manipulation by OPEC and exorbitant petrol taxes in the EU. Yet the facts belie these explanations. For instance, what really happened in late 2008 when, in just a few weeks, oil prices plummeted from $144 dollars to $37 dollars a barrel? Did Chinese and Indian demand suddenly dry up? Did Middle East conflicts magically resolve themselves? Did OPEC flood the market with crude? In each case the answer is a definitive no – quite the opposite in fact. Industry expert Salvatore Carollo explains that the truth behind today’s increasingly volatile oil market is that over the past two decades oil prices have come untethered from all classical notions of supply and demand and have transcended any country’s, consortium’s, cartel’s, or corporate entity’s powers to control them. At play is a subtler, more complex game than most analysts realise (or are unwilling to admit to), a very dangerous game involving runaway financial speculation, self-defeating government policymaking and a concerted disinvestment in refinery capacity among the oil majors. In Understanding Oil Prices Carollo identifies the key players in this dangerous game, exploring their competing interests and motivations, their moves and countermoves. Beginning with the 1976 oil embargo and moving through the 1986 Chernobyl incident, the implementation of the US Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990, and the precipitous expansion of the oil futures market since the turn of the century, he traces the vast structural changes which have occurred within the oil industry over the past four decades, identifying their economic, social and geopolitical drivers, and analysing their fallout in the global economy. He explores the oil industry’s decision to scale down refining capacity in the face of increasing demand and the effects of global shortages of petrol, diesel, jet fuel, fuel oil, chemical feedstocks, lubricants and other essential finished products, and describes how, beginning in the year 2000, the oil futures market detached itself almost completely from the crude market, leading to the assetization of oil, and the crippling impact reckless speculation in oil futures has had on the global economy. Finally he proposes new, more sophisticated models that economists and financial analysts can use to make sense of today’s oil market, while offering industry leaders and government policymakers prescriptions for stabilising the market to ensure a relatively steady flow of affordable oil. A concise, authoritative guide to understanding the complex, oft misunderstood oil markets, Understanding Oil Prices is an important resource for energy market participants, commodity traders and investors, as well as business journalists and government policymakers alike.
Fundamentals Of Petroleum Trading
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Author : Hossein Razavi
language : en
Publisher: Praeger
Release Date : 1991-08-26
Fundamentals Of Petroleum Trading written by Hossein Razavi and has been published by Praeger this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1991-08-26 with Business & Economics categories.
Until as recently as the late 1970s, the main channel for oil distribution was the integrated system of the major oil companies, while the volume of spot trading was limited to roughly 5 percent of the total oil trade. Today, spot and spot-related deals account for 80 to 85 percent of internationally traded petroleum, and have ushered in a new era of petroleum trading. In this work, Hossein Razavi and Fereidun Fesharaki offer a detailed study of the workings and issues surrounding today's oil trading market as they apply to all parties involved in the production, distribution, and consumption of petroleum. They provide a complete description of petroleum spot markets, futures, and options trading, and their interlinkages with contract sales. Razavi and Fesharaki cover a wide range of topics, and challenge the generally accepted view that spot and futures trading have wrested the power of price setting away from OPEC. They claim that prices are still determined by supply, which OPEC continues to influence. The book is divided into four sections, beginning with an overview of recent developments in spot, futures, and contract trading. Section two provides an analysis of spot and spot-related deals, while the third section describes the mechanics, organization, and evolution of petroleum futures markets and options trading. The work concludes with an in-depth section on interlinkages, examining the interactions among various segments of the market, including spot and futures trading, petroleum stock building, and OPEC. This book will be a valuable resource tool for libraries as well as a wide range of users, from oil industry professionals and financial analysts to students of energy-related topics.
Crude Oil Prices As Determined By Opec And Market Fundamentals
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Author : Paul W. MacAvoy
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1982
Crude Oil Prices As Determined By Opec And Market Fundamentals written by Paul W. MacAvoy and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1982 with Technology & Engineering categories.
Peaks Spikes And Barrels
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Author : Ms.Malika Pant
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2010-08-01
Peaks Spikes And Barrels written by Ms.Malika Pant and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2010-08-01 with Business & Economics categories.
Global oil markets were roiled by sharp price swings in 2008, and economists are still divided over the reasons for the unusual volatility. Those emphasizing fundamentals point to inelastic supply and demand curves, others view the phenomenon mostly as a result of financial investors flocking into commodity markets. This paper attempts to infer the strength of these competing hypotheses, using a simultaneous equation model that enables us to undertake a separate analysis of supply and demand factors. The model broadly captures both the surge and subsequent fall in prices, with a particularly strong impact of demand factors. The model captures a strong effect of a measure for global liquidity but does not find support for a speculative motive.
Trading In Oil Futures And Options
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Author : Sally Clubley
language : en
Publisher: CRC Press
Release Date : 1998-10-15
Trading In Oil Futures And Options written by Sally Clubley and has been published by CRC Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1998-10-15 with Business & Economics categories.
Trading in Oil Futures and Options, thoroughly revised and updated, provides practical advice on when to make the decision to use futures; choosing a broker; and the mechanics of futures trading. This new edition has been extended to include all oil market trading instruments, and also gas and electricity derivatives. Updates the only comprehensive guide to oil futures and options Presents an international outlook on the topic Features a chapter on technical analysis and an appendix on the costs of futures trading
Monetary Policy And Crude Oil
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Author : Basil Oberholzer
language : en
Publisher: Edward Elgar Publishing
Release Date : 2017-07-28
Monetary Policy And Crude Oil written by Basil Oberholzer and has been published by Edward Elgar Publishing this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017-07-28 with categories.
The global crude oil market is critically important in many respects. It is the fuel that drives the global economy and, as such, is the focus of climate policies. Moreover, crude oil is the basis of a tradable financial asset. It is therefore connected to several outstanding macroeconomic developments of recent years, including financial market fluctuations, the financial crisis and the exceptional conduct of monetary policy. This book investigates the impacts of monetary policy and the financial system on the global crude oil market. Furthermore, it outlines how monetary policy may also be used to guarantee stability and to contribute to ecological sustainability.