The Role Of Speculation In Oil Markets
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Oil Price Volatility And The Role Of Speculation
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Author : Samya Beidas-Strom
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2014-12-12
Oil Price Volatility And The Role Of Speculation written by Samya Beidas-Strom and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014-12-12 with Business & Economics categories.
How much does speculation contribute to oil price volatility? We revisit this contentious question by estimating a sign-restricted structural vector autoregression (SVAR). First, using a simple storage model, we show that revisions to expectations regarding oil market fundamentals and the effect of mispricing in oil derivative markets can be observationally equivalent in a SVAR model of the world oil market à la Kilian and Murphy (2013), since both imply a positive co-movement of oil prices and inventories. Second, we impose additional restrictions on the set of admissible models embodying the assumption that the impact from noise trading shocks in oil derivative markets is temporary. Our additional restrictions effectively put a bound on the contribution of speculation to short-term oil price volatility (lying between 3 and 22 percent). This estimated short-run impact is smaller than that of flow demand shocks but possibly larger than that of flow supply shocks.
The Role Of Speculation In Oil Markets
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Author : Bassam Fattouh
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2012
The Role Of Speculation In Oil Markets written by Bassam Fattouh and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012 with Petroleum products categories.
The Role Of Market Speculation In Rising Oil And Gas Prices
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Author :
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2006
The Role Of Market Speculation In Rising Oil And Gas Prices written by and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2006 with Natural gas categories.
Speculative Investment In Energy Markets
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Author : United States. Congress. Senate. Committee on Energy and Natural Resources. Subcommittee on Energy
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2008
Speculative Investment In Energy Markets written by United States. Congress. Senate. Committee on Energy and Natural Resources. Subcommittee on Energy and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2008 with Business & Economics categories.
Quantifying The Speculative Component In The Real Price Of Oil
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Author : Lutz Kilian
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2013
Quantifying The Speculative Component In The Real Price Of Oil written by Lutz Kilian and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013 with Petroleum industry and trade categories.
One of the central questions of policy interest in recent years has been how many dollars of the inflation-adjusted price of oil must be attributed to speculative demand for oil stocks at each point in time. We develop statistical tools that allow us to address this question, and we use these tools to explore how the use of two alternative proxies for global crude oil inventories affects the empirical evidence for speculation. Notwithstanding some differences, overall these inventory proxies yield similar results. While there is evidence of speculative demand raising the price in mid-2008 by between 5 and 14 dollars, depending on the inventory specification, there is no evidence of speculative demand pressures between early 2003 and early 2008. As a result, current policy efforts aimed at tightening the regulation of oil derivatives markets cannot be expected to lower the real price of oil in the physical market. We also provide evidence that the Libyan crisis in 2011 shifted expectations in oil markets, resulting in a price increase of between 3 and 13 dollars, depending on the inventory specification. With regard to tensions with Iran in 2012, the implied price premium ranges from 0 to 9 dollars.
Speculation In The Crude Oil Market
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Author : United States. Congress. Senate. Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs. Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2008
Speculation In The Crude Oil Market written by United States. Congress. Senate. Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs. Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2008 with Electronic government information categories.
On The Sources And Consequences Of Oil Price Shocks
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Author : Deren Unalmis
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2012-11-08
On The Sources And Consequences Of Oil Price Shocks written by Deren Unalmis and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-11-08 with Business & Economics categories.
Building on recent work on the role of speculation and inventories in oil markets, we embed a competitive oil storage model within a DSGE model of the U.S. economy. This enables us to formally analyze the impact of a (speculative) storage demand shock and to assess how the effects of various demand and supply shocks change in the presence of oil storage facility. We find that business-cycle driven oil demand shocks are the most important drivers of U.S. oil price fluctuations during 1982-2007. Disregarding the storage facility in the model causes a considerable upward bias in the estimated role of oil supply shocks in driving oil price fluctuations. Our results also confirm that a change in the composition of shocks helps explain the resilience of the macroeconomic environment to the oil price surge after 2003. Finally, speculative storage is shown to have a mitigating or amplifying role depending on the nature of the shock.
Understanding Oil Prices
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Author : Salvatore Carollo
language : en
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Release Date : 2011-11-22
Understanding Oil Prices written by Salvatore Carollo and has been published by John Wiley & Sons this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2011-11-22 with Business & Economics categories.
It’s a fair bet that most of what you think you know about oil prices is wrong. Despite the massive price fluctuations of the past decade, the received wisdom on the subject has remained fundamentally unchanged since the 1970s. When asked, most people – including politicians, financial analysts and pundits – will respond with a tired litany of reasons ranging from increased Chinese and Indian competition for diminishing resources and tensions in the Middle East, to manipulation by OPEC and exorbitant petrol taxes in the EU. Yet the facts belie these explanations. For instance, what really happened in late 2008 when, in just a few weeks, oil prices plummeted from $144 dollars to $37 dollars a barrel? Did Chinese and Indian demand suddenly dry up? Did Middle East conflicts magically resolve themselves? Did OPEC flood the market with crude? In each case the answer is a definitive no – quite the opposite in fact. Industry expert Salvatore Carollo explains that the truth behind today’s increasingly volatile oil market is that over the past two decades oil prices have come untethered from all classical notions of supply and demand and have transcended any country’s, consortium’s, cartel’s, or corporate entity’s powers to control them. At play is a subtler, more complex game than most analysts realise (or are unwilling to admit to), a very dangerous game involving runaway financial speculation, self-defeating government policymaking and a concerted disinvestment in refinery capacity among the oil majors. In Understanding Oil Prices Carollo identifies the key players in this dangerous game, exploring their competing interests and motivations, their moves and countermoves. Beginning with the 1976 oil embargo and moving through the 1986 Chernobyl incident, the implementation of the US Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990, and the precipitous expansion of the oil futures market since the turn of the century, he traces the vast structural changes which have occurred within the oil industry over the past four decades, identifying their economic, social and geopolitical drivers, and analysing their fallout in the global economy. He explores the oil industry’s decision to scale down refining capacity in the face of increasing demand and the effects of global shortages of petrol, diesel, jet fuel, fuel oil, chemical feedstocks, lubricants and other essential finished products, and describes how, beginning in the year 2000, the oil futures market detached itself almost completely from the crude market, leading to the assetization of oil, and the crippling impact reckless speculation in oil futures has had on the global economy. Finally he proposes new, more sophisticated models that economists and financial analysts can use to make sense of today’s oil market, while offering industry leaders and government policymakers prescriptions for stabilising the market to ensure a relatively steady flow of affordable oil. A concise, authoritative guide to understanding the complex, oft misunderstood oil markets, Understanding Oil Prices is an important resource for energy market participants, commodity traders and investors, as well as business journalists and government policymakers alike.
Trading In Oil Futures And Options
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Author : Sally Clubley
language : en
Publisher: CRC Press
Release Date : 1998-10-15
Trading In Oil Futures And Options written by Sally Clubley and has been published by CRC Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1998-10-15 with Business & Economics categories.
Trading in Oil Futures and Options, thoroughly revised and updated, provides practical advice on when to make the decision to use futures; choosing a broker; and the mechanics of futures trading. This new edition has been extended to include all oil market trading instruments, and also gas and electricity derivatives. Updates the only comprehensive guide to oil futures and options Presents an international outlook on the topic Features a chapter on technical analysis and an appendix on the costs of futures trading
Fundamentals Speculation And The Pricing Of Crude Oil Futures
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Author : Thomas Hoehl
language : en
Publisher: GRIN Verlag
Release Date : 2011-11
Fundamentals Speculation And The Pricing Of Crude Oil Futures written by Thomas Hoehl and has been published by GRIN Verlag this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2011-11 with Business & Economics categories.
Master's Thesis from the year 2011 in the subject Economics - Finance, grade: 8,0, Maastricht University (School of Business and Economics), language: English, abstract: This study finds that while a large part of the variation in crude oil futures prices is driven by fundamental factors, financial investment and speculation has the potential to aggravate reactions to changing fundamental variables and furthermore move prices on its own. The evidence is gathered by performing linear regressions and Granger Causality tests on futures returns, position data of different categories of futures traders on the New York Mercantile Exchange and proxies for relevant fundamental factors such as equity and exchange rate returns gathered from August 2006 to December 2010. While higher prices for crude oil naturally come along with increasing physical demand and finite world supply, future regulation might temper market volatility and guarantee that prices reflect a sustainable physical market equilibrium. The study also gives an overview of commodity market regulation and position limits on futures markets.