How To Predict The Unpredictable
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Predicting The Unpredictable
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Author : Susan Elizabeth Hough
language : en
Publisher: Princeton University Press
Release Date : 2016-11-08
Predicting The Unpredictable written by Susan Elizabeth Hough and has been published by Princeton University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016-11-08 with Science categories.
Why seismologists still can't predict earthquakes An earthquake can strike without warning and wreak horrific destruction and death, whether it's the catastrophic 2010 quake that took a devastating toll on the island nation of Haiti or a future great earthquake on the San Andreas Fault in California, which scientists know is inevitable. Yet despite rapid advances in earthquake science, seismologists still can’t predict when the Big One will hit. Predicting the Unpredictable explains why, exploring the fact and fiction behind the science—and pseudoscience—of earthquake prediction. Susan Hough traces the continuing quest by seismologists to forecast the time, location, and magnitude of future quakes. She brings readers into the laboratory and out into the field—describing attempts that have raised hopes only to collapse under scrutiny, as well as approaches that seem to hold future promise. She also ventures to the fringes of pseudoscience to consider ideas outside the scientific mainstream. An entertaining and accessible foray into the world of earthquake prediction, Predicting the Unpredictable illuminates the unique challenges of predicting earthquakes.
How To Predict The Unpredictable
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Author : William Poundstone
language : en
Publisher: Simon and Schuster
Release Date : 2014-09-04
How To Predict The Unpredictable written by William Poundstone and has been published by Simon and Schuster this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014-09-04 with Business & Economics categories.
We are hard-wired to believe that the world is more predictable than it is. We chase ‘winning streaks’ that are often just illusions, and we are all too predictable exactly when we try hardest not to be. In the 1970s, Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky coined the phrase ‘representativeness’ to describe the psychology of this behaviour. Since then representativeness has been used by auditors to catch people fiddling their tax returns and by hedge fund managers to reap billions from the emotions of small investors. Now Poundstone for the first time makes these techniques fun, easy, and profitable for everyone, in the everyday situations that matter. You’ll learn how to tackle multiple choice tests, what internet passwords to avoid, how to up your odds of winning the office Premier League sweepstakes, and the best ways to invest your money.
How To Predict Everything
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Author : William Poundstone
language : en
Publisher: Simon and Schuster
Release Date : 2019-06-06
How To Predict Everything written by William Poundstone and has been published by Simon and Schuster this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019-06-06 with Mathematics categories.
How do you predict something that has never happened before? There's a useful calculation being employed by Wall Street, Silicon Valley and maths professors all over the world, and it predicts that the human species will become extinct in 760 years. Unfortunately, there is disagreement over how to apply the formula, and some argue that we might only have twenty years left. Originally devised by British clergyman Thomas Bayes, the theorem languished in obscurity for two hundred years before being resurrected as the lynchpin of the digital economy. With brief detours into archaeology, philology, and overdue library books, William Poundstone explains how we can use it to predict pretty much anything. What is the chance that there are multiple universes? How long will Hamilton run? Will the US stock market continue to perform as well this century as it has for the last hundred years? And are we really all doomed?
Predicting The Unpredictable
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Author : Susan Elizabeth Hough
language : en
Publisher: Princeton University Press
Release Date : 2016-10-25
Predicting The Unpredictable written by Susan Elizabeth Hough and has been published by Princeton University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016-10-25 with Science categories.
Why seismologists still can't predict earthquakes An earthquake can strike without warning and wreak horrific destruction and death, whether it's the catastrophic 2010 quake that took a devastating toll on the island nation of Haiti or a future great earthquake on the San Andreas Fault in California, which scientists know is inevitable. Yet despite rapid advances in earthquake science, seismologists still can’t predict when the Big One will hit. Predicting the Unpredictable explains why, exploring the fact and fiction behind the science—and pseudoscience—of earthquake prediction. Susan Hough traces the continuing quest by seismologists to forecast the time, location, and magnitude of future quakes. She brings readers into the laboratory and out into the field—describing attempts that have raised hopes only to collapse under scrutiny, as well as approaches that seem to hold future promise. She also ventures to the fringes of pseudoscience to consider ideas outside the scientific mainstream. An entertaining and accessible foray into the world of earthquake prediction, Predicting the Unpredictable illuminates the unique challenges of predicting earthquakes.
Studies In The Methodology And Foundations Of Science
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Author : Patrick Suppes
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2013-03-09
Studies In The Methodology And Foundations Of Science written by Patrick Suppes and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-03-09 with Science categories.
The twenty-three papers collected in tbis volume represent an important part of my published work up to the date of this volume. I have not arranged the paper chronologically, but under four main headings. Part I contains five papers on methodology concerned with models and measurement in the sciences. This part also contains the first paper I published, 'A Set of Independent Axioms for Extensive Quantities', in Portugaliae Mathematica in 1951. Part 11 also is concerned with methodology and ineludes six papers on probability and utility. It is not always easy to separate papers on probability and utility from papers on measurement, because of the elose connection between the two subjects, but Artieles 6 and 8, even though they have elose relations to measurement, seem more properly to belong in Part 11, because they are concerned with substantive questions about probability and utility. The last two parts are concerned with the foundations of physics and the foundations of psychology. I have used the term foundations rather than philosophy, because the papers are mainly concerned with specific axiomatic formulations for particular parts of physics or of psychology, and it seems to me that the termfoundations more appropriately describes such constructive axiomatic ventures. Part 111 contains four papers on the foundations of physics. The first paper deals with foundations of special relativity and the last three with the role ofprobability in quantum mechanics.
Superforecasting
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Author : Philip Tetlock
language : en
Publisher: Random House
Release Date : 2015-09-24
Superforecasting written by Philip Tetlock and has been published by Random House this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2015-09-24 with Social Science categories.
The international bestseller 'A manual for thinking clearly in an uncertain world. Read it.' Daniel Kahneman, author of Thinking, Fast and Slow _________________________ What if we could improve our ability to predict the future? Everything we do involves forecasts about how the future will unfold. Whether buying a new house or changing job, designing a new product or getting married, our decisions are governed by implicit predictions of how things are likely to turn out. The problem is, we're not very good at it. In a landmark, twenty-year study, Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed that the average expert was only slightly better at predicting the future than a layperson using random guesswork. Tetlock's latest project – an unprecedented, government-funded forecasting tournament involving over a million individual predictions – has since shown that there are, however, some people with real, demonstrable foresight. These are ordinary people, from former ballroom dancers to retired computer programmers, who have an extraordinary ability to predict the future with a degree of accuracy 60% greater than average. They are superforecasters. In Superforecasting, Tetlock and his co-author Dan Gardner offer a fascinating insight into what we can learn from this elite group. They show the methods used by these superforecasters which enable them to outperform even professional intelligence analysts with access to classified data. And they offer practical advice on how we can all use these methods for our own benefit – whether in business, in international affairs, or in everyday life. _________________________ 'The techniques and habits of mind set out in this book are a gift to anyone who has to think about what the future might bring. In other words, to everyone.' Economist 'A terrific piece of work that deserves to be widely read . . . Highly recommended.' Independent 'The best thing I have read on predictions . . . Superforecasting is an indispensable guide to this indispensable activity.' The Times
Organizational Myopia
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Author : Maurizio Catino
language : en
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Release Date : 2013-02-14
Organizational Myopia written by Maurizio Catino and has been published by Cambridge University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-02-14 with Business & Economics categories.
The book examines the mechanisms that generate myopia in organizations and explores how organizations can foresee and contain unexpected events.
Future Babble
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Author : Dan Gardner
language : en
Publisher: McClelland & Stewart
Release Date : 2010-10-12
Future Babble written by Dan Gardner and has been published by McClelland & Stewart this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2010-10-12 with Social Science categories.
In 2008, as the price of oil surged above $140 a barrel, experts said it would soon hit $200; a few months later it plunged to $30. In 1967, they said the USSR would have one of the fastest-growing economies in the year 2000; in 2000, the USSR did not exist. In 1911, it was pronounced that there would be no more wars in Europe; we all know how that turned out. Face it, experts are about as accurate as dart-throwing monkeys. And yet every day we ask them to predict the future — everything from the weather to the likelihood of a catastrophic terrorist attack. Future Babble is the first book to examine this phenomenon, showing why our brains yearn for certainty about the future, why we are attracted to those who predict it confidently, and why it’s so easy for us to ignore the trail of outrageously wrong forecasts. In this fast-paced, example-packed, sometimes darkly hilarious book, journalist Dan Gardner shows how seminal research by UC Berkeley professor Philip Tetlock proved that pundits who are more famous are less accurate — and the average expert is no more accurate than a flipped coin. Gardner also draws on current research in cognitive psychology, political science, and behavioral economics to discover something quite reassuring: The future is always uncertain, but the end is not always near.
Predicting The Unpredictable
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Author : Terence C. Mills
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1992
Predicting The Unpredictable written by Terence C. Mills and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1992 with Business & Economics categories.
The author discusses how research in financial markets has evolved and whether the application of theories can ever be translated into 'excess profits'.
The Strategy Paradox
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Author : Michael E. Raynor
language : en
Publisher: Broadway Business
Release Date : 2007
The Strategy Paradox written by Michael E. Raynor and has been published by Broadway Business this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2007 with Risk management categories.
With detailed case studies of successes and failures at Sony, Microsoft, AT&T, and other major companies, Raynor presents a concrete framework for strategic action that allows companies to seize today's opportunities while simultaneously preparing for tomorrow's promise.