Imf Supported Programs
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Imf Supported Programs In Low Income Countries
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Author : Mr.Christian Mumssen
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2014-01-15
Imf Supported Programs In Low Income Countries written by Mr.Christian Mumssen and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014-01-15 with Business & Economics categories.
This paper studies the short and longer-term impact of IMF engagement in Low-Income Countries (LICs) over nearly three decades. In contrast to earlier studies, we focus on a sample composed exclusively of LICs and disentangle the different effects of IMF longer-term engagement and short-term financing using a propensity score matching approach to control for selection bias. Our results indicate that longer-term IMF support (at least five years of program engagement per decade) helped LICs sustain economic growth and boost resilience by building fiscal buffers. Interestingly, the size of IMF financing has no significant impact on economic growth, possibly pointing to the prominent role of IMF policy advice and institutional capacity building in the context of longer-term engagement. We also present evidence that the short-term IMF engagement through augmentations of existing programs or short-term and emergency facilities is positively associated with a wide range of macroeconomic outcomes. Notably, the IMF financial support has the greatest impact on short-term growth when LICs are faced with substantial macroeconomic imbalances or exogenous shocks.
Growth And Adjustment In Imf Supported Programs
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Author : International Monetary Fund. Independent Evaluation Office
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2021-09-09
Growth And Adjustment In Imf Supported Programs written by International Monetary Fund. Independent Evaluation Office and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021-09-09 with Business & Economics categories.
This evaluation assesses how well IMF-supported programs helped to sustain economic growth while delivering adjustment needed for external viability over the period 2008–19. The evaluation finds that the Fund’s increasing attention to growth in the programs has delivered some positive results. Specifically, it does not find evidence of a consistent bias towards excessive austerity in IMF-supported programs. Indeed, programs have yielded growth benefits relative to a counterfactual of no Fund engagement and boosted post-program growth performance. Notwithstanding these positive findings, program growth outcomes consistently fell short of program projections. Such shortfalls imply less protection of incomes than intended, fuel adjustment fatigue and public opposition to reforms, and jeopardize progress towards external viability. The evaluation examines how different policy instruments were applied to support better growth outcomes while achieving needed adjustment. Fiscal policies typically incorporated growth-friendly measures but with mixed success. Despite some success in promoting reforms and growth, structural conditionalities were of relatively low depth and their potential growth benefits were not fully realized. Use of the exchange rate as a policy tool to support growth and external adjustment during programs was quite limited. Lastly, market debt operations were useful in some cases to restore debt sustainability and renew market access, yet sometimes were too little and too late to deliver the intended benefits. The evaluation concludes that the IMF should seek to further enhance program countries’ capacity to sustain activity while undertaking needed adjustment during the program and to enhance growth prospects beyond the program. Following this conclusion, the report sets out three recommendations aimed at strengthening attention to growth implications of IMF-supported programs, including the social and distributional consequences.
Imf Supported Programs
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Author : Mr.Ashoka Mody
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2006-04-03
Imf Supported Programs written by Mr.Ashoka Mody and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2006-04-03 with Business & Economics categories.
Research work by the IMF’s staff on the effectiveness of the country programs the organization supports, which has long been carried out, has intensified in recent years. IMF analysts have sought to “open up the black box” by more closely examining program design and implementation, as well as how these influence programs’ effectiveness. Their efforts have also focused on identifying the lending, signaling, and monitoring features of the IMF that may affect member countries’ economic performance. This book reports on a large portion of both the new and the continuing research. It concludes that IMF programs work best where domestic politics and institutions permit the timely implementation of the necessary measures and when a country is vulnerable to, but not yet in, a crisis. It points to the need for a wider recognition of the substantial diversity among IMF member countries and for programs to be tailored accordingly while broadly maintaining the IMF’s general principle of uniformity of treatment.
Structural Conditionality In Imf Supported Programs
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Author : International Monetary Fund. Independent Evaluation Office
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2008-04-30
Structural Conditionality In Imf Supported Programs written by International Monetary Fund. Independent Evaluation Office and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2008-04-30 with Business & Economics categories.
This evaluation examines factors influencing the effectiveness of the IMF structural conditionality in bringing about structural reform. It assesses the impact of the streamlining initiative launched in 2000 and of the 2002 Conditionality Guidelines. These guidelines aimed at reducing the volume and scope of structural conditionality by requiring “parsimony” in the use of conditions and stipulated that conditions must be “critical” to the achievement of the program goals. The evaluation finds that during the period 1995–2004, there was extensive use of structural conditionality in IMF-supported programs, with an average of 17 conditions per program/year.
Imf Supported Programs And Income Convergence In Low Income Countries
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Author : Tejesh Pradhan
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2018-12-13
Imf Supported Programs And Income Convergence In Low Income Countries written by Tejesh Pradhan and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018-12-13 with Business & Economics categories.
Continuing the empirical debate on the effects of IMF-supported programs on participating countries’ macroeconomic performance, we focus on the issue of whether these programs accelerate conditional ß-convergence among low-income countries (LICs). We use an unbalanced panel dataset for 85 LICs over the period 1986-2015 and employ two different econometric methods to address the selection bias problem. Our empirical results suggest that the rate of conditional income per capita convergence is faster among LICs with extended IMF support than that in countries without support or with intermittent support.
Fiscal Adjustment In Imf Supported Programs
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Author : International Monetary Fund. Independent Evaluation Office
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2003-11-17
Fiscal Adjustment In Imf Supported Programs written by International Monetary Fund. Independent Evaluation Office and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2003-11-17 with Business & Economics categories.
Using a cross-country sample of 169 IMF-supported programs and detailed studies of 15 programs, this evaluation report examines various aspects of fiscal adjustment in IMF-supported programs. It presents evidence that does not support some critics’ view that IMF-supported programs typically adopt a one-size-fits-all approach to fiscal adjustment, nor the perception that programs always involve austerity by targeting reductions in public spending. The report also proposes a number of recommendations for IMF surveillance and program design in the future.
Do Imf Supported Programs Catalyze Donor Assistance To Low Income Countries
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Author : Yasemin Bal-Gunduz
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2014-11-12
Do Imf Supported Programs Catalyze Donor Assistance To Low Income Countries written by Yasemin Bal-Gunduz and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014-11-12 with Business & Economics categories.
This study explores whether IMF-supported programs in low-income countries (LICs) catalyze Official Development Assistance (ODA). Based on a comprehensive set of ODA measures and using Propensity Score Matching approach to address selection bias, we show that programs addressing policy or exogenous shocks have a significant catalytic impact on both the size and the modality of ODA. Moreover, the impact is greatest when LICs are faced with substantial macroeconomic imbalances or large shocks. Nevertheless, when countries attracting similar donor assistance before shocks are matched results for bilateral ODA turn insignificant, suggesting that the catalytic impact is attributed primarily to multilateral ODA.
Designing Expenditure Policy Conditionality In Imf Supported Programs
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Author : Emine Hanedar
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2025-01-24
Designing Expenditure Policy Conditionality In Imf Supported Programs written by Emine Hanedar and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2025-01-24 with Business & Economics categories.
This gap-filling paper provides granular advice on how to design quantitative and structural conditionality of IMF-supported programs in six expenditure policy areas: social assistance, energy subsidies, pension spending, health spending, education spending, and wage bill management. Such granular advice is based on a stocktaking exercise: an analysis of 105 programs approved between 2002 and July 2021 containing a ca. 1400 conditions. Conditions are key to identify outcomes or actions seen as critical for program success or monitoring, and so are essential for financial support countries can receive from the Fund.
Does Conditionality In Imf Supported Programs Promote Revenue Reform
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Author : Ernesto Crivelli
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2014-11-19
Does Conditionality In Imf Supported Programs Promote Revenue Reform written by Ernesto Crivelli and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014-11-19 with Business & Economics categories.
This paper studies whether revenue conditionality in Fund-supported programs had any impact on the revenue performance of 126 low- and middle-income countries during 1993-2013. The results indicate that such conditionality had a positive impact on tax revenue, with strongest improvement felt on taxes on goods and services, including the VAT. Revenue conditionality matters more for low-income countries, particularly those where revenue ratios are below the group average. Moreover, revenue conditionality appears to be more effective when targeted to a specific tax. These results hold after controlling for potential endogeneity, sample selection bias, and when revenues are adjusted for economic cycle.
Predicting Imf Supported Programs A Machine Learning Approach
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Author : Tsendsuren Batsuuri
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2024-03-08
Predicting Imf Supported Programs A Machine Learning Approach written by Tsendsuren Batsuuri and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2024-03-08 with Business & Economics categories.
This study applies state-of-the-art machine learning (ML) techniques to forecast IMF-supported programs, analyzes the ML prediction results relative to traditional econometric approaches, explores non-linear relationships among predictors indicative of IMF-supported programs, and evaluates model robustness with regard to different feature sets and time periods. ML models consistently outperform traditional methods in out-of-sample prediction of new IMF-supported arrangements with key predictors that align well with the literature and show consensus across different algorithms. The analysis underscores the importance of incorporating a variety of external, fiscal, real, and financial features as well as institutional factors like membership in regional financing arrangements. The findings also highlight the varying influence of data processing choices such as feature selection, sampling techniques, and missing data imputation on the performance of different ML models and therefore indicate the usefulness of a flexible, algorithm-tailored approach. Additionally, the results reveal that models that are most effective in near and medium-term predictions may tend to underperform over the long term, thus illustrating the need for regular updates or more stable – albeit potentially near-term suboptimal – models when frequent updates are impractical.