Implications Of Modern Decision Science For Military Decision Support Systems
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Implications Of Modern Decision Science For Military Decision Support Systems
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Author : Paul K. Davis
language : en
Publisher: Rand Corporation
Release Date : 2005
Implications Of Modern Decision Science For Military Decision Support Systems written by Paul K. Davis and has been published by Rand Corporation this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2005 with Computers categories.
A selective review of modern decision science and implications for decision-support systems. The study suggests ways to synthesize lessons from research on heuristics and biases with those from "naturalistic research." It also discusses modern tools, such as increasingly realistic simulations, multiresolution modeling, and exploratory analysis, which can assist decisionmakers in choosing strategies that are flexible, adaptive, and robust.
Applied Cognitive Science And Technology
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Author : Sumitava Mukherjee
language : en
Publisher: Springer Nature
Release Date : 2023-08-23
Applied Cognitive Science And Technology written by Sumitava Mukherjee and has been published by Springer Nature this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2023-08-23 with Psychology categories.
This book fills the long-pending gap in consolidating research on applied cognitive science and technology. It explores the broader implications of interactions between human cognition and technology by touching upon artificial intelligence (AI) and artificial agents, decision support and assistance support systems, cybersecurity threats, computational modeling of cognition through artificial neural networks and machine learning, human factors, engineering design, and social media interfaces. With an interdisciplinary scope that addresses psychological and technological issues, this unique book shows how cognitive science is furthered by technology(or platforms) while simultaneously illustrating how the study of cognitive processes is helping shape technological products. Accordingly, it offers a valuable resource for researchers and practitioners in a broad array of fields, such as psychology, science, engineering and management.
Analysis Analysis Practices And Implications For Modeling And Simulation
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Author : Paul K. Davis
language : en
Publisher: Rand Corporation
Release Date : 2007
Analysis Analysis Practices And Implications For Modeling And Simulation written by Paul K. Davis and has been published by Rand Corporation this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2007 with Technology & Engineering categories.
An examination of analysis and analysis practices for defense planning, the paper1s purpose is to delineate priorities for the way ahead, i.e., for investments and other actions to ensure that future models and simulations will serve the needs of decisionmakers. The analysis in question is accomplished for Quadrennial Reviews and for continuing work on capability assessments, requirements analysis, and program analysis.
Intelligent Decision Making An Ai Based Approach
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Author : Gloria Phillips-Wren
language : en
Publisher: Springer
Release Date : 2008-02-27
Intelligent Decision Making An Ai Based Approach written by Gloria Phillips-Wren and has been published by Springer this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2008-02-27 with Technology & Engineering categories.
Intelligent Decision Support Systems have the potential to transform human decision making by combining research in artificial intelligence, information technology, and systems engineering. The field of intelligent decision making is expanding rapidly due, in part, to advances in artificial intelligence and network-centric environments that can deliver the technology. Communication and coordination between dispersed systems can deliver just-in-time information, real-time processing, collaborative environments, and globally up-to-date information to a human decision maker. At the same time, artificial intelligence techniques have demonstrated that they have matured sufficiently to provide computational assistance to humans in practical applications. This book includes contributions from leading researchers in the field beginning with the foundations of human decision making and the complexity of the human cognitive system. Researchers contrast human and artificial intelligence, survey computational intelligence, present pragmatic systems, and discuss future trends. This book will be an invaluable resource to anyone interested in the current state of knowledge and key research gaps in the rapidly developing field of intelligent decision support.
Theory And Methods For Supporting High Level Military Decisionmaking
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Author : Paul K. Davis
language : en
Publisher: Rand Corporation
Release Date : 2007
Theory And Methods For Supporting High Level Military Decisionmaking written by Paul K. Davis and has been published by Rand Corporation this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2007 with Business & Economics categories.
This report describes an approach to high-level decision support for a Joint Forces Air Component Commander in combat operations or a Chief of Staff in defense planning. Its central theme is the fundamental importance of dealing effectively with uncertainty, whether in effects-based operations, building the Air Force's Commander's Predictive Environment, or planning future forces with the methods of capabilities-based planning. Because many features of the future cannot be predicted with reasonable confidence, it is better to proceed with the expectation of surprise developments and to have skill in recognizing adaptations and making them than it is to treat uncertainty merely as an annoyance. This report sketches the framework of a high-level decision-support environment that is top-down, expresses concepts in simple and intuitive language, deals explicitly with risk and uncertainty, and provides the capability for decisionmakers to readily discover and question the bases for key assumptions and assessments. It can accommodate both "rational-analytic" and "naturalistic" decisionmakers, allowing them to produce strategies that are flexible, adaptive, and robust (FAR). Two explicit methods and their related tools are described. The first involves portfolio-style thinking and analysis, a good mechanism for balancing risks and other considerations in choosing a course of action. The second is a novel modification of foresight exercises that addresses the need to include humans effectively in dealing with uncertainty. A more extensive discussion of available methods and enabling technologies is also presented, along with some recommendations about investment priorities.
Enhancing Strategic Planning With Massive Scenario Generation
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Author : Paul K. Davis
language : en
Publisher: Rand Corporation
Release Date : 2007
Enhancing Strategic Planning With Massive Scenario Generation written by Paul K. Davis and has been published by Rand Corporation this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2007 with Technology & Engineering categories.
This report extends research on using scenarios for strategic planning, with experiments in what can be called massive scenario generation (MSG), a computationally intensive technique that seeks to combine virtues of human- and model-based exploration of "the possibility space." The authors measure particular approaches to MSG against four metrics: not needing a good initial model; the dimensionality of the possibility space considered; the degree of exploration of that space; and the quality of resulting knowledge. The authors then describe two MSG experiments for contrasting cases, one that began with a reasonable but untested analytical model, and one that began without an analytical model, but with a thoughtful list of the conditions that might characterize and distinguish among circumstances in the situation considered, a list derived from a combination of single-analyst thinking and group brainstorming. The authors experimented with a variety of methods and tools for interpreting and making sense of the "data" arising from MSG, using ordinary linear sensitivity analysis, a generalization using analyst-inspired aggregation fragments, some advanced filtering methods drawing on data-mining and machine-learning methods, and motivated metamodeling. On the basis of this preliminary work, we conclude that MSG has the potential to expand the scope of what are recognized as possible developments, provide an understanding of how those developments might come about, and help identify aspects of the world that should be studied more carefully, tested, or monitored. It should assist planners by enriching their mental library of the patterns used to guide reasoning and action at the time of crisis or decision and should help them identify anomalous situations requiring unusual actions. Finally, it should identify crucial issues worthy of testing or experimentation in games or other venues and, in some cases, suggest better ways to design mission rehearsals. If MSG can be built into training, education, research, and socialization exercises, it should leave participants with a wider and better sense of the possible, while developing skill at problem-solving in situations other than those of the "best estimate." Much development is needed, but prospects are encouraging.
Social Science For Counterterrorism
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Author : Paul K. Davis
language : en
Publisher: Rand Corporation
Release Date : 2009
Social Science For Counterterrorism written by Paul K. Davis and has been published by Rand Corporation this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2009 with Political Science categories.
Employs an interdisciplinary, social science approach to various counterterrorism questions, problems, and policies.
Advances In Culturally Aware Intelligent Systems And In Cross Cultural Psychological Studies
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Author : Colette Faucher
language : en
Publisher: Springer
Release Date : 2017-11-03
Advances In Culturally Aware Intelligent Systems And In Cross Cultural Psychological Studies written by Colette Faucher and has been published by Springer this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017-11-03 with Technology & Engineering categories.
This book offers valuable new insights into the design of culturally-aware systems. In its first part, it is devoted to presenting selected Culturally-Aware Intelligent Systems devised in the field of Artificial Intelligence and its second part consists of two sub-parts that offer a source of inspiration for building modelizations of Culture and of its influence on the human mind and behavior, to be used in new Culturally-Aware Intelligent Systems. Those sub-parts present the results of experiments conducted in two fields that study Culture and its influence on the human mind’s functions: Cultural Neuroscience and Cross-Cultural Psychology. In this era of globalization, people from different countries and cultures have the opportunity to interact directly or indirectly in a wide variety of contexts. Despite differences in their ways of thinking and reasoning, their behaviors, their values, lifestyles, customs and habits, languages, religions – in a word, their cultures – they must be able to collaborate on projects, to understand each other’s views, to communicate in such a way that they don’t offend each other, to anticipate the effects of their actions on others, and so on. As such, it is of primary importance to understand how culture affects people’s mental activities, such as perception, interpretation, reasoning, emotion and behavior, in order to anticipate possible misunderstandings due to differences in handling the same situation, and to try and resolve them. Artificial Intelligence, and more specifically, the field of Intelligent Systems design, aims at building systems that mimic the behavior of human beings in order to complete tasks more efficiently than humans could by themselves. Consequently, in the last decade, experts and scholars in the field of Intelligent Systems have been increasingly tackling the notion of cultural awareness. A Culturally-Aware Intelligent System can be defined as a system where Culture-related or, more generally, socio-cultural information is modeled and used to design the human-machine interface, or to provide support with the task carried out by the system, be it reasoning, simulation or any other task involving cultural knowledge.
U S Air Force Strategic Deterrence Analytic Capabilities
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Author : National Research Council
language : en
Publisher: National Academies Press
Release Date : 2015-01-02
U S Air Force Strategic Deterrence Analytic Capabilities written by National Research Council and has been published by National Academies Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2015-01-02 with Technology & Engineering categories.
Since the early 1960s, the U.S. strategic nuclear posture has been composed of a triad of nuclear-certified long-range bombers, intercontinental ballistic missiles, and submarine-launched ballistic missiles. Since the early 1970s, U.S. nuclear forces have been subject to strategic arms control agreements. The large numbers and diversified nature of the U.S. nonstrategic (tactical) nuclear forces, which cannot be ignored as part of the overall nuclear deterrent, have decreased substantially since the Cold War. While there is domestic consensus today on the need to maintain an effective deterrent, there is no consensus on precisely what that requires, especially in a changing geopolitical environment and with continued reductions in nuclear arms. This places a premium on having the best possible analytic tools, methods, and approaches for understanding how nuclear deterrence and assurance work, how they might fail, and how failure can be averted by U.S. nuclear forces. U.S. Air Force Strategic Deterrence Analytic Capabilities identifies the broad analytic issues and factors that must be considered in seeking nuclear deterrence of adversaries and assurance of allies in the 21st century. This report describes and assesses tools, methods - including behavioral science-based methods - and approaches for improving the understanding of how nuclear deterrence and assurance work or may fail in the 21st century and the extent to which such failures might be averted or mitigated by the proper choice of nuclear systems, technological capabilities, postures, and concepts of operation of American nuclear forces. The report recommends criteria and a framework for validating the tools, methods, and approaches and for identifying those most promising for Air Force usage.
All The Facts
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Author : James W. Cortada
language : en
Publisher: Oxford University Press
Release Date : 2016-03-16
All The Facts written by James W. Cortada and has been published by Oxford University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016-03-16 with History categories.
All the Facts presents a history of the role of information in the United States since 1870, when the nation began a nearly 150-year period of economic prosperity and technological and scientific transformations. James Cortada argues that citizens and their institutions used information extensively as tools to augment their work and private lives and that they used facts to help shape how the nation evolved during these fourteen decades. He argues that information's role has long been a critical component of the work, play, culture, and values of this nation, and no more so than during the twentieth century when its function in society expanded dramatically. While elements of this story have been examined by thousands of scholars---such as the role of radio, newspapers, books, computers, and the Internet, about such institutions as education, big business, expanded roles of governments from town administration to the state house, from agriculture to the services and information industries---All the Facts looks at all of these elements holistically, providing a deeper insight into the way the United States evolved over time. An introduction and 11 chapters describe what this information ecosystem looked like, how it evolved, and how it was used. For another vast layer of information about this subject the reader is directed to the detailed bibliographic essay in the back of this book. It includes a narrative history, case studies in the form of sidebars, and stories illustrating key points. Readers will find, for example, the story of how the US postal system helped create today's information society, along with everything from books and newspapers to TV, computers, and the Internet. The build-up to what many today call the Information Age took a long time to achieve and continues to build momentum. The implications for the world, and not just for the United States, are as profound as any mega-trend one could identify in the history of humankind. All the Facts presents this development thoroughly in an easy-to-digest format that any lover of history, technology, or the history of information and business will enjoy.