Improving Bayesian Reasoning What Works And Why
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Improving Bayesian Reasoning What Works And Why
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Author : Gorka Navarrete
language : en
Publisher: Frontiers Media SA
Release Date : 2016-02-02
Improving Bayesian Reasoning What Works And Why written by Gorka Navarrete and has been published by Frontiers Media SA this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016-02-02 with Psychology categories.
We confess that the first part of our title is somewhat of a misnomer. Bayesian reasoning is a normative approach to probabilistic belief revision and, as such, it is in need of no improvement. Rather, it is the typical individual whose reasoning and judgments often fall short of the Bayesian ideal who is the focus of improvement. What have we learnt from over a half-century of research and theory on this topic that could explain why people are often non-Bayesian? Can Bayesian reasoning be facilitated, and if so why? These are the questions that motivate this Frontiers in Psychology Research Topic. Bayes' theorem, named after English statistician, philosopher, and Presbyterian minister, Thomas Bayes, offers a method for updating one’s prior probability of an hypothesis H on the basis of new data D such that P(H|D) = P(D|H)P(H)/P(D). The first wave of psychological research, pioneered by Ward Edwards, revealed that people were overly conservative in updating their posterior probabilities (i.e., P(D|H)). A second wave, spearheaded by Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky, showed that people often ignored prior probabilities or base rates, where the priors had a frequentist interpretation, and hence were not Bayesians at all. In the 1990s, a third wave of research spurred by Leda Cosmides and John Tooby and by Gerd Gigerenzer and Ulrich Hoffrage showed that people can reason more like a Bayesian if only the information provided takes the form of (non-relativized) natural frequencies. Although Kahneman and Tversky had already noted the advantages of frequency representations, it was the third wave scholars who pushed the prescriptive agenda, arguing that there are feasible and effective methods for improving belief revision. Most scholars now agree that natural frequency representations do facilitate Bayesian reasoning. However, they do not agree on why this is so. The original third wave scholars favor an evolutionary account that posits human brain adaptation to natural frequency processing. But almost as soon as this view was proposed, other scholars challenged it, arguing that such evolutionary assumptions were not needed. The dominant opposing view has been that the benefit of natural frequencies is mainly due to the fact that such representations make the nested set relations perfectly transparent. Thus, people can more easily see what information they need to focus on and how to simply combine it. This Research Topic aims to take stock of where we are at present. Are we in a proto-fourth wave? If so, does it offer a synthesis of recent theoretical disagreements? The second part of the title orients the reader to the two main subtopics: what works and why? In terms of the first subtopic, we seek contributions that advance understanding of how to improve people’s abilities to revise their beliefs and to integrate probabilistic information effectively. The second subtopic centers on explaining why methods that improve non-Bayesian reasoning work as well as they do. In addressing that issue, we welcome both critical analyses of existing theories as well as fresh perspectives. For both subtopics, we welcome the full range of manuscript types.
Bayesian Rationality
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Author : Mike Oaksford
language : en
Publisher: Oxford University Press
Release Date : 2007-02-22
Bayesian Rationality written by Mike Oaksford and has been published by Oxford University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2007-02-22 with Philosophy categories.
For almost 2,500 years, the Western concept of what is to be human has been dominated by the idea that the mind is the seat of reason - humans are, almost by definition, the rational animal. In this text a more radical suggestion for explaining these puzzling aspects of human reasoning is put forward.
Psychology And Mathematics Education
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Author : Gila Hanna
language : en
Publisher: Frontiers Media SA
Release Date : 2023-09-05
Psychology And Mathematics Education written by Gila Hanna and has been published by Frontiers Media SA this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2023-09-05 with Science categories.
Modern Mathematics is constructed rigorously through proofs, based on truths, which are either axioms or previously proven theorems. Thus, it is par excellence a model of rational inquiry. Links between Cognitive Psychology and Mathematics Education have been particularly strong during the last decades. Indeed, the Enlightenment view of the rational human mind that reasons, makes decisions and solves problems based on logic and probabilities, was shaken during the second half of the twentieth century. Cognitive psychologists discovered that humans' thoughts and actions often deviate from rules imposed by strict normative theories of inference. Yet, these deviations should not be called "errors": as Cognitive Psychologists have demonstrated, these deviations may be either valid heuristics that succeed in the environments in which humans have evolved, or biases that are caused by a lack of adaptation to abstract information formats. Humans, as the cognitive psychologist and economist Herbert Simon claimed, do not usually optimize, but rather satisfice, even when solving problem. This Research Topic aims at demonstrating that these insights have had a decisive impact on Mathematics Education. We want to stress that we are concerned with the view of bounded rationality that is different from the one espoused by the heuristics-and-biases program. In Simon’s bounded rationality and its direct descendant ecological rationality, rationality is understood in terms of cognitive success in the world (correspondence) rather than in terms of conformity to content-free norms of coherence (e.g., transitivity).
Bayesian Reasoning And Machine Learning
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Author : David Barber
language : en
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Release Date : 2012-02-02
Bayesian Reasoning And Machine Learning written by David Barber and has been published by Cambridge University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-02-02 with Computers categories.
A practical introduction perfect for final-year undergraduate and graduate students without a solid background in linear algebra and calculus.
Judgment And Decision Making Under Uncertainty Descriptive Normative And Prescriptive Perspectives
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Author : David R. Mandel
language : en
Publisher: Frontiers Media SA
Release Date : 2019-09-26
Judgment And Decision Making Under Uncertainty Descriptive Normative And Prescriptive Perspectives written by David R. Mandel and has been published by Frontiers Media SA this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019-09-26 with categories.
Researching National Security Intelligence
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Author : Stephen Coulthart
language : en
Publisher: Georgetown University Press
Release Date : 2019-11-01
Researching National Security Intelligence written by Stephen Coulthart and has been published by Georgetown University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019-11-01 with Political Science categories.
Researchers in the rapidly growing field of intelligence studies face unique and difficult challenges ranging from finding and accessing data on secret activities, to sorting through the politics of intelligence successes and failures, to making sense of complex socio-organizational or psychological phenomena. The contributing authors to Researching National Security Intelligence survey the state of the field and demonstrate how incorporating multiple disciplines helps to generate high-quality, policy-relevant research. Following this approach, the volume provides a conceptual, empirical, and methodological toolkit for scholars and students informed by many disciplines: history, political science, public administration, psychology, communications, and journalism. This collection of essays written by an international group of scholars and practitioners propels intelligence studies forward by demonstrating its growing depth, by suggesting new pathways to the creation of knowledge, and by identifying how scholarship can enhance practice and accountability.
Cognitive Psychology
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Author : Michael W. Eysenck
language : en
Publisher: Psychology Press
Release Date : 2020-03-09
Cognitive Psychology written by Michael W. Eysenck and has been published by Psychology Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020-03-09 with Psychology categories.
The fully updated eighth edition of Cognitive Psychology: A Student’s Handbook provides comprehensive yet accessible coverage of all the key areas in the field ranging from visual perception and attention through to memory and language. Each chapter is complete with key definitions, practical real-life applications, chapter summaries and suggested further reading to help students develop an understanding of this fascinating but complex field. The new edition includes: an increased emphasis on neuroscience updated references to reflect the latest research applied ‘in the real world’ case studies and examples. Widely regarded as the leading undergraduate textbook in the field of cognitive psychology, this new edition comes complete with an enhanced accompanying companion website. The website includes a suite of learning resources including simulation experiments, multiple-choice questions, and access to Primal Pictures’ interactive 3D atlas of the brain. The companion website can be accessed at: www.routledge.com/cw/eysenck.
Bayesian Reasoning And Gaussian Processes For Machine Learning Applications
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Author : Hemachandran K
language : en
Publisher: CRC Press
Release Date : 2022-04-14
Bayesian Reasoning And Gaussian Processes For Machine Learning Applications written by Hemachandran K and has been published by CRC Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2022-04-14 with Business & Economics categories.
This book introduces Bayesian reasoning and Gaussian processes into machine learning applications. Bayesian methods are applied in many areas, such as game development, decision making, and drug discovery. It is very effective for machine learning algorithms in handling missing data and extracting information from small datasets. Bayesian Reasoning and Gaussian Processes for Machine Learning Applications uses a statistical background to understand continuous distributions and how learning can be viewed from a probabilistic framework. The chapters progress into such machine learning topics as belief network and Bayesian reinforcement learning, which is followed by Gaussian process introduction, classification, regression, covariance, and performance analysis of Gaussian processes with other models. FEATURES Contains recent advancements in machine learning Highlights applications of machine learning algorithms Offers both quantitative and qualitative research Includes numerous case studies This book is aimed at graduates, researchers, and professionals in the field of data science and machine learning.
Modeling And Reasoning With Bayesian Networks
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Author : Adnan Darwiche
language : en
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Release Date : 2009-04-06
Modeling And Reasoning With Bayesian Networks written by Adnan Darwiche and has been published by Cambridge University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2009-04-06 with Computers categories.
This book provides a thorough introduction to the formal foundations and practical applications of Bayesian networks. It provides an extensive discussion of techniques for building Bayesian networks that model real-world situations, including techniques for synthesizing models from design, learning models from data, and debugging models using sensitivity analysis. It also treats exact and approximate inference algorithms at both theoretical and practical levels. The author assumes very little background on the covered subjects, supplying in-depth discussions for theoretically inclined readers and enough practical details to provide an algorithmic cookbook for the system developer.
Improving Statistical Reasoning
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Author : Peter Sedlmeier
language : en
Publisher: Psychology Press
Release Date : 1999-06
Improving Statistical Reasoning written by Peter Sedlmeier and has been published by Psychology Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1999-06 with Psychology categories.
This book describes an approach to understanding, modeling, and improving the probabilistic reasoning of ordinary adults, comparing their reasoning to that of "experts." For specialists in judgment and decision making and all cognitive scientists.