Inflation Dynamic
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Inflation Dynamic
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Author : Weshah Razzak
language : en
Publisher: Taylor & Francis
Release Date : 2023-06-16
Inflation Dynamic written by Weshah Razzak and has been published by Taylor & Francis this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2023-06-16 with Business & Economics categories.
This book explains inflation dynamic, using time series data from 1960 for 42 countries. These countries are different in every aspect, historically, culturally, socially, politically, institutionally, and economically. They are chosen on the basis of the data availability only and cover the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, Africa, Asia, the Caribbean, Europe, Australasia, and the United States. Inflation reached double digits in the developed countries in the 1970s and 80s, and then central banks, successfully stabilized it by anchoring inflation expectations for decades, until now. Conditional on common and country-specific shocks such as oil price shocks, financial and banking and political crises, wars, pandemics, natural disasters etc., the book tests various theoretical models about the long and short run relationships between money and prices, money growth and inflation, money growth and real output, expected inflation; the output gap, fiscal policy, and inflation, using a number of parametric and non-parametric methods, and pays attention to specifications and estimations problems. In addition, it explains why policymakers in inflation – targeting countries, e.g. the U.S., failed to anticipate the recent sudden rise in inflation. And, it examines the fallibility of the Modern Monetary Theory’s policy prescription to reduce inflation by raising taxes. This is a unique and innovative book, which will find an audience among students, academics, researchers, policy makers, analysts in corporations, private and central banks and international monetary institutions.
Understanding Inflation Dynamics The Role Of Global Shocks In Cemac
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Author : Johanna Tiedemann
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2024-03-08
Understanding Inflation Dynamics The Role Of Global Shocks In Cemac written by Johanna Tiedemann and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2024-03-08 with Business & Economics categories.
As in the rest of the world, inflation in CEMAC surged more quickly and persistently than expected during the 2021–23 period. This paper examines the drivers of inflation dynamics and the contribution of global shocks to inflation persistence in CEMAC. We use a Phillips curve framework combined with the local projections method. Our results confirm the prominent role of global factors in driving inflation dynamics. Global commodity food and oil price fluctuations, and shipping costs are the main factors explaining the large variability in headline inflation. Further, we find that global price shocks have sizable and persistent effects on domestic headline inflation, with differences in the magnitude and speed of pass-through. The pass-through from commodity food price fluctuations to headline inflation is higher and more persistent than that of other global price shocks, reflecting the large share of food in the consumption baskets, which makes inflation more vulnerable to direct effects of international food shocks, but also larger second-round effects.
Global Value Chain And Inflation Dynamics
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Author : Vu Chau
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2024-03-22
Global Value Chain And Inflation Dynamics written by Vu Chau and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2024-03-22 with Business & Economics categories.
We study the inflationary impacts of pandemic lockdown shocks and fiscal and monetary stimulus during 2020-2022 using a novel harmonized dataset of sectoral producer price inflation and input-output linkages for more than 1000 sectors in 53 countries. The inflationary impact of shocks is identified via a Bartik shift-share design, where shares reflect the heterogeneous sectoral exposure to shocks and are derived from a macroeconomic model of international production network. We find that pandemic lockdowns, and subsequent reopening policies, were the most dominant driver of global inflation in this period, especially through their impact on aggregate demand. We provide a decomposition of lockdown shock by sources, and find that between 20-30 percent of the demand effect of lockdown/reopening is due to spillover from abroad. Finally, while fiscal and monetary policies played an important role in preventing deflation in 2020, their effects diminished in the recovery years.
Inflation Dynamics And Monetary Policy Transmission In Vietnam And Emerging Asia
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Author : Ms.Rina Bhattacharya
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2013-07-03
Inflation Dynamics And Monetary Policy Transmission In Vietnam And Emerging Asia written by Ms.Rina Bhattacharya and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-07-03 with Business & Economics categories.
This paper provides an overview of inflation developments in Vietnam in the years following the doi moi reforms, and uses empirical analysis to answer two key questions: (i) what are the key drivers of inflation in Vietnam, and what role does monetary policy play? and (ii) why has inflation in Vietnam been persistently higher than in most other emerging market economies in the region? It focuses on understanding the monetary policy transmission mechanism in Vietnam, and in understanding the extent to which monetary policy can explain why inflation in Vietnam has been higher than in other Asian emerging markets over the past decade.
Multiple Exchange Rates Fiscal Deficits And Inflation Dynamics
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Author : Mr.Vincent Bodart
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 1996-05-01
Multiple Exchange Rates Fiscal Deficits And Inflation Dynamics written by Mr.Vincent Bodart and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1996-05-01 with Business & Economics categories.
The paper explores the inflationary implications of exchange rate regime reforms in a small open economy model combining the public finance view of inflation with multiple exchange markets. To account for the experience of many developing countries, the analysis focuses on transitions to multiple official exchange markets. In those countries, multiple exchange rates were often announced as temporary. The paper shows that the dynamic response of inflation to the reform markedly differ whether the announcement is credible or not. The paper also compares the response of inflation under a fixed crawl of nominal official rates and under the presence of policy rules aimed at reducing the spread between the official and parallel exchange rates.
Inflation Dynamics In Asia
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Author : Ms.Carolina Osorio
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2011-11-01
Inflation Dynamics In Asia written by Ms.Carolina Osorio and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2011-11-01 with Business & Economics categories.
The perception that Asia's inflation dynamics is driven by idiosyncratic supply shocks implies, as a corollary, that there is little scope for a policy reaction to a build-up of inflationary pressures. However, Asia's fast growth and integration over the last two decades suggest that the drivers of inflation may have changed, and that domestic demand pressures may now play a larger role than in the past. This paper presents a quantitative analysis of inflation dynamics in Asia using a Global VAR (GVAR) model, which explicitly incorporates the role of regional and global spillovers in driving Asia's inflation. Our results suggest that over the past two decades the main drivers of inflation in Asia have been monetary and supply shocks, but also that, in recent years, the contribution of these shocks has fallen, whereas demand-side pressures have started to emerge as an important contributor to inflation in Asia.
Inflation Dynamics In The Cemac Region
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Author : Carlos Caceres
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2011-10-01
Inflation Dynamics In The Cemac Region written by Carlos Caceres and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2011-10-01 with Business & Economics categories.
This paper analyses inflation dynamics in the Central African Economic and Monetary Community (CEMAC) using a constructed dataset for country-specific commodity price indices and panel cointegrated vector autoregressive (VAR) models. Imported commodity price shocks are significant in explaining inflation in the region. Governments are another driving force of inflation dynamics mainly through controlled prices and the role of capital expenditure in domestic activity. In most CEMAC countries, the largest effect of global food and fuel prices occurs after four or five quarters in noncore inflation and then decays substantially over time. Second-round effects are significant only in Cameroon and to a lesser extent in the Republic of Congo.
Understanding Post Covid Inflation Dynamics
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Author : Martin Harding
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2023-01-20
Understanding Post Covid Inflation Dynamics written by Martin Harding and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2023-01-20 with Business & Economics categories.
We propose a macroeconomic model with a nonlinear Phillips curve that has a flat slope when inflationary pressures are subdued and steepens when inflationary pressures are elevated. The nonlinear Phillips curve in our model arises due to a quasi-kinked demand schedule for goods produced by firms. Our model can jointly account for the modest decline in inflation during the Great Recession and the surge in inflation during the Post-Covid period. Because our model implies a stronger transmission of shocks when inflation is high, it generates conditional heteroskedasticity in inflation and inflation risk. Hence, our model can generate more sizeable inflation surges due to cost-push and demand shocks than a standard linearized model. Finally, our model implies that the central bank faces a more severe trade-off between inflation and output stabilization when inflation is high.
Dynamic Factor Models
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Author : Siem Jan Koopman
language : en
Publisher: Emerald Group Publishing
Release Date : 2016-01-08
Dynamic Factor Models written by Siem Jan Koopman and has been published by Emerald Group Publishing this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016-01-08 with Business & Economics categories.
This volume explores dynamic factor model specification, asymptotic and finite-sample behavior of parameter estimators, identification, frequentist and Bayesian estimation of the corresponding state space models, and applications.
Understanding Inflation Dynamics In Afghanistan
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Author : Karim Badr
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2025-07-04
Understanding Inflation Dynamics In Afghanistan written by Karim Badr and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2025-07-04 with categories.
Over the past two decades, Afghanistan experienced three main periods of deflation, with the lastest being the longest. This paper investigates the macroeconomic factors influencing inflation dynamics in the short and long run, considering both domestic and external factors. Utilizing quarterly data and employing Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) and Error Correction Model (ECM) methodologies, the paper finds that the exchange rate is the primary long-term price driver due to Afghanistan's reliance on imports and foreign aid, followed by money supply and international commodity prices. In the short run, inflation is persisent, and broad money have a significant impact on inflation compared to external factors.