Understanding Inflation Dynamics In Afghanistan
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Understanding Inflation Dynamics In Afghanistan
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Author : Karim Badr
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2025-07-04
Understanding Inflation Dynamics In Afghanistan written by Karim Badr and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2025-07-04 with categories.
Over the past two decades, Afghanistan experienced three main periods of deflation, with the lastest being the longest. This paper investigates the macroeconomic factors influencing inflation dynamics in the short and long run, considering both domestic and external factors. Utilizing quarterly data and employing Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) and Error Correction Model (ECM) methodologies, the paper finds that the exchange rate is the primary long-term price driver due to Afghanistan's reliance on imports and foreign aid, followed by money supply and international commodity prices. In the short run, inflation is persisent, and broad money have a significant impact on inflation compared to external factors.
Oil Prices And Inflation Dynamics Evidence From Advanced And Developing Economies
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Author : Sangyup Choi
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2017-09-05
Oil Prices And Inflation Dynamics Evidence From Advanced And Developing Economies written by Sangyup Choi and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017-09-05 with Business & Economics categories.
We study the impact of fluctuations in global oil prices on domestic inflation using an unbalanced panel of 72 advanced and developing economies over the period from 1970 to 2015. We find that a 10 percent increase in global oil inflation increases, on average, domestic inflation by about 0.4 percentage point on impact, with the effect vanishing after two years and being similar between advanced and developing economies. We also find that the effect is asymmetric, with positive oil price shocks having a larger effect than negative ones. The impact of oil price shocks, however, has declined over time due in large part to a better conduct of monetary policy. We further examine the transmission channels of oil price shocks on domestic inflation during the recent decades, by making use of a monthly dataset from 2000 to 2015. The results suggest that the share of transport in the CPI basket and energy subsidies are the most robust factors in explaining cross-country variations in the effects of oil price shocks during the this period.
Inflation In Emerging And Developing Economies
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Author : Jongrim Ha
language : en
Publisher: World Bank Publications
Release Date : 2019-01-03
Inflation In Emerging And Developing Economies written by Jongrim Ha and has been published by World Bank Publications this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019-01-03 with Business & Economics categories.
This is the first comprehensive study in the context of EMDEs that covers, in one consistent framework, the evolution and global and domestic drivers of inflation, the role of expectations, exchange rate pass-through and policy implications. In addition, the report analyzes inflation and monetary policy related challenges in LICs. The report documents three major findings: In First, EMDE disinflation over the past four decades was to a significant degree a result of favorable external developments, pointing to the risk of rising EMDE inflation if global inflation were to increase. In particular, the decline in EMDE inflation has been supported by broad-based global disinflation amid rapid international trade and financial integration and the disruption caused by the global financial crisis. While domestic factors continue to be the main drivers of short-term movements in EMDE inflation, the role of global factors has risen by one-half between the 1970s and the 2000s. On average, global shocks, especially oil price swings and global demand shocks have accounted for more than one-quarter of domestic inflation variatio--and more in countries with stronger global linkages and greater reliance on commodity imports. In LICs, global food and energy price shocks accounted for another 12 percent of core inflation variatio--half more than in advanced economies and one-fifth more than in non-LIC EMDEs. Second, inflation expectations continue to be less well-anchored in EMDEs than in advanced economies, although a move to inflation targeting and better fiscal frameworks has helped strengthen monetary policy credibility. Lower monetary policy credibility and exchange rate flexibility have also been associated with higher pass-through of exchange rate shocks into domestic inflation in the event of global shocks, which have accounted for half of EMDE exchange rate variation. Third, in part because of poorly anchored inflation expectations, the transmission of global commodity price shocks to domestic LIC inflation (combined with unintended consequences of other government policies) can have material implications for poverty: the global food price spikes in 2010-11 tipped roughly 8 million people into poverty.
Aid Paradoxes In Afghanistan
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Author : Nematullah Bizhan
language : en
Publisher: Routledge
Release Date : 2017-08-14
Aid Paradoxes In Afghanistan written by Nematullah Bizhan and has been published by Routledge this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017-08-14 with Business & Economics categories.
The relationship between aid and state building is highly complex and the effects of aid on weak states depend on donors’ interests, aid modalities and the recipient’s pre-existing institutional and socio-political conditions. This book argues that, in the case of Afghanistan, the country inherited conditions that were not favourable for effective state building. Although some of the problems that emerged in the post-2001 state building process were predictable, the types of interventions that occurred—including an aid architecture which largely bypassed the state, the subordination of state building to the war on terror, and the short horizon policy choices of donors and the Afghan government—reduced the effectiveness of the aid and undermined effective state building. By examining how foreign aid affected state building in Afghanistan since the US militarily intervened in Afghanistan in late 2001 until the end of President Hamid Karzai’s first term in 2009, this book reveals the dynamic and complex relations between the Afghan government and foreign donors in their efforts to rebuild state institutions. The work explores three key areas: how donors supported government reforms to improve the taxation system, how government reorganized the state’s fiscal management system, and how aid dependency and aid distribution outside the government budget affected interactions between state and society. Given that external revenue in the form of tribute, subsidies and aid has shaped the characteristics of the state in Afghanistan since the mid-eighteenth century, this book situates state building in a historical context. This book will be invaluable for practitioners and anyone studying political economy, state building, international development and the politics of foreign aid.
Humanitarian Invasion
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Author : Timothy Nunan
language : en
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Release Date : 2016-01-26
Humanitarian Invasion written by Timothy Nunan and has been published by Cambridge University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016-01-26 with History categories.
Humanitarian Invasion provides a history of international development and humanitarianism in Cold War Afghanistan.
Afghanistan
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Author : Geoffrey Hayes
language : en
Publisher: Wilfrid Laurier Univ. Press
Release Date : 2009-08-04
Afghanistan written by Geoffrey Hayes and has been published by Wilfrid Laurier Univ. Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2009-08-04 with Political Science categories.
Many have questioned the wisdom of the international intervention in Afghanistan in light of the escalation of violence and instability in the country in the past few years. Particularly uncertain are Canadians, who have been inundated with media coverage of an increasingly dirty war in southern Afghanistan, one in which Canadians are at the frontline and suffering heavy casualties. However, the conflict is only one aspect of Afghanistan’s complicated, and incomplete, political, economic, and security transition. In Afghanistan: Transition under Threat, leading Afghanistan scholars and practitioners paint a full picture of the situation in Afghanistan and the impact of international and particularly Canadian assistance. They review the achievements of the reconstruction process and outline future challenges, focusing on key issues like the narcotics trade, the Pakistan—Afghanistan bilateral relationship, the Taliban-led insurgency, and continuing endemic poverty. This collection provides new insight into the nature and state of Afghanistan’s post-conflict transition and illustrates the consequences of failure. Co-published with the Centre for International Governance Innovation
The Economic Impact Of Conflicts And The Refugee Crisis In The Middle East And North Africa
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Author : Mr.Bjoern Rother
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2016-09-16
The Economic Impact Of Conflicts And The Refugee Crisis In The Middle East And North Africa written by Mr.Bjoern Rother and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016-09-16 with Social Science categories.
In recent decades, the Middle East and North Africa region (MENA) has experienced more frequent and severe conflicts than in any other region of the world, exacting a devastating human toll. The region now faces unprecedented challenges, including the emergence of violent non-state actors, significant destruction, and a refugee crisis bigger than any since World War II. This paper raises awareness of the economic costs of conflicts on the countries directly involved and on their neighbors. It argues that appropriate macroeconomic policies can help mitigate the impact of conflicts in the short term, and that fostering higher and more inclusive growth can help address some of the root causes of conflicts over the long term. The paper also highlights the crucial role of external partners, including the IMF, in helping MENA countries tackle these challenges.
Afghanistan State Building Sustaining Growth And Reducing Poverty
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Author :
language : en
Publisher: World Bank Publications
Release Date : 2005-01-01
Afghanistan State Building Sustaining Growth And Reducing Poverty written by and has been published by World Bank Publications this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2005-01-01 with Political Science categories.
"Afghanistan has come a long way since emerging from major conflict in late 2001. The economy has recovered strongly, growing by nearly 50% cumulatively in the last two years (not including drugs). Some three million internally and externally displaced Afghans have returned to their country. More than four million children, a third of them girls, are in school, and immunization campaigns have achieved considerable success. The Government has supported good economic performance by following prudent macroeconomic policies and it has made extraordinary efforts to develop key national programs and to revive social services like education and health. Nevertheless, Afghanistan remains one of the poorest countries in the world in terms of both per-capita incomes and social indicators, with large gender gaps. The difficult challenge of poverty reduction is made even more difficult by continuing insecurity, weak rule of law, and narcotics. Afghanistan - State Building, Sustaining Growth, and Reducing Poverty provides a greater understanding of the core challenges that lie ahead for Afghanistan and key priorities for national reconstruction. The Afghan economy has been shaped by more than two decades of debilitating conflict and has some very unusual features which this study analyzes. The authors argue that the country must break out of the vicious cycle that would keep it insecure, fragmented politically, weakly governed, poor, dominated by the illicit economy, and a hostage to the drug industry. The study presents key elements for a breakthrough in the next two years but the daunting agenda will require strong commitment, actions, and persistence on the part of the Government and robust support from the international community."
Islamic Republic Of Afghanistan
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Author : International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2014-05-21
Islamic Republic Of Afghanistan written by International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept. and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014-05-21 with Business & Economics categories.
KEY ISSUES Context. Over the past decade, Afghanistan has made enormous progress in reconstruction, development and lifting per capita income. Security and political uncertainties, and weak institutions have constrained growth and weighed on social outcomes. With significant reform efforts and donor support, Afghanistan has maintained macroeconomic stability, implemented important structural reforms, and built policy buffers, but significant vulnerabilities remain. The IMF has been supporting Afghanistan through technical assistance and a three-year Extended Credit Facility (ECF) arrangement. Reviews under the ECF arrangement have been delayed. Outlook and risks. 2014 is a crucial year in the political and security transitions and the run-up to the “transformation decade” (2015–24). Assuming smooth political and security transitions, continued reform and donor financing, the outlook should be positive. Large security and development expenditure needs and a limited domestic revenue capacity mean that Afghanistan will remain dependent on donor financing for an extended period. Macroeconomic stability, structural reforms, and political and security stability are needed to ensure inclusive growth. Risks, mostly on the downside, are related to adverse domestic or regional security developments, political instability, inadequate implementation of economic policies, and donor fatigue. Policy recommendations. The authorities’ economic strategy (maintaining macroeconomic stability, strengthening the financial sector, improving economic governance, and moving toward fiscal sustainability) remains appropriate and needs strengthened implementation. Sustained implementation of this strategy will safeguard growth and build buffers to help manage shocks. Policies should continue to aim at strengthening revenue collection, managing money growth to control inflation while preserving exchange rate flexibility, strengthening bank supervision, and quickly enacting anti-money laundering (AML), countering financing of terrorism (CFT), banking, central bank, and value-added tax legislation.
Dynamic Economic Decision Making
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Author : John E. Silvia
language : en
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Release Date : 2011-06-24
Dynamic Economic Decision Making written by John E. Silvia and has been published by John Wiley & Sons this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2011-06-24 with Business & Economics categories.
A comprehensive analysis of the macroeconomic and financial forces altering the economic landscape Financial decision-making requires one to anticipate how their decision will not only affect their business, but also the economic environment. Unfortunately, all too often, both private and public sector decision-makers view their decisions as one-off responses and fail to see their decisions within the context of an evolving decision-making framework. In Decision-Making in a Dynamic Economic Setting, John Silvia, Chief Economist of Wells Fargo and one of the top 5 economic forecasters according to Bloomberg News and USA Today, skillfully puts this discipline in perspective. Details realistic, decision-making approaches and applications under a broad set of economic scenarios Analyzes monetary policy and addresses the impact of financial regulations Examines business cycles and how to identify economic trends, how to deal with uncertainty and manage risk, the building blocks of growth, and strategies for innovation Decision-Making in a Dynamic Economic Setting details the real-world application of economic principles and financial strategy in making better business decisions.