Measuring U S Core Inflation The Stress Test Of Covid 19
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Measuring U S Core Inflation The Stress Test Of Covid 19
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Author : Laurence M. Ball
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2021-12-17
Measuring U S Core Inflation The Stress Test Of Covid 19 written by Laurence M. Ball and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021-12-17 with Business & Economics categories.
Large price changes in industries affected by the COVID-19 pandemic have caused erratic fluctuations in the U.S. headline inflation rate. This paper compares alternative approaches to filtering out the transitory effects of these industry price changes and measuring the underlying or core level of inflation over 2020-2021. The Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of core, the inflation rate excluding food and energy prices (XFE), has performed poorly: over most of 2020-21, it is almost as volatile as headline inflation. Measures of core that exclude a fixed set of additional industries, such as the Atlanta Fed’s sticky-price inflation rate, have been less volatile, but the least volatile have been measures that filter out large price changes in any industry, such as the Cleveland Fed’s median inflation rate and the Dallas Fed’s trimmed mean inflation rate. These core measures have followed smooth paths, drifting down when the economy was weak in 2020 and then rising as the economy has rebounded. Overall, we find that the case for the Federal Reserve to move away from the traditional XFE measure of core has strengthened during 2020-21.
Understanding U S Inflation During The Covid Era
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Author : Laurence M. Ball
language : en
Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Release Date : 2022-10-28
Understanding U S Inflation During The Covid Era written by Laurence M. Ball and has been published by INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2022-10-28 with Business & Economics categories.
This paper analyzes the dramatic rise in U.S. inflation since 2020, which we decompose into a rise in core inflation as measured by the weighted median inflation rate and deviations of headline inflation from core. We explain the rise in core with two factors, the tightening of the labor market as captured by the ratio of job vacancies to unemployment, and the pass-through into core from past shocks to headline inflation. The headline shocks themselves are explained largely by increases in energy prices and by supply chain problems as captured by backlogs of orders for goods and services. Looking forward, we simulate the future path of inflation for alternative paths of the unemployment rate, focusing on the projections of Federal Reserve policymakers in which unemployment rises only modestly to 4.4 percent. We find that this unemployment path returns inflation to near the Fed’s target only under optimistic assumptions about both inflation expectations and the Beveridge curve relating the unemployment and vacancy rates. Under less benign assumptions about these factors, the inflation rate remains well above target unless unemployment rises by more than the Fed projects.
Unconventional Fiscal Policy In Times Of High Inflation
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Author : Mai Dao
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2023-09
Unconventional Fiscal Policy In Times Of High Inflation written by Mai Dao and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2023-09 with Business & Economics categories.
The surge in energy prices in 2022 has been a defining factor behind the increase in euro area inflation. We assess the impact of “unconventional fiscal policy,” defined as the set of fiscal measures, possibly expansionary, motivated by a desire to mute the effects of the increase in energy prices and to lower inflation. Overall, we find that these unconventional measures reduced euro area inflation by 1 to 2 percentage points in 2022 and may avoid an undershoot later on. When nonlinearities in the Phillips curve are taken into account, the net effect is to reduce inflation by about 0.5 percentage points in 2021-24, and keep it nearer to its target. About one-third to one-half of the reduction in 2022 reflects the direct effects of the measures on headline inflation, with much of the remainder reflecting the lower pass-through to core inflation. The fiscal measures were deficit-financed but had limited effects on raising inflation by stimulating demand and instead modestly helped to stabilize longer-term inflation expectations. Looking ahead, the prospective decline in inflation in the euro area is partly due to fortunate circumstances, with energy prices falling from their 2022 peaks and their pass-through effects fading, and with less economic overheating than in economies such as the United States. Implementing similar measures in the face of a more persistent increase in energy prices, or in a more overheated economy, would have caused a more persistent rise in core inflation.
World Economic Outlook October 2022
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Author : International Monetary
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2022-10-11
World Economic Outlook October 2022 written by International Monetary and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2022-10-11 with Business & Economics categories.
Global economic activity is experiencing a broad-based and sharper-than-expected slowdown, with inflation higher than seen in several decades. The cost-of-living crisis, tightening financial conditions in most regions, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and the lingering COVID-19 pandemic all weigh heavily on the outlook. Global growth is forecast to slow from 6.0 percent in 2021 to 3.2 percent in 2022 and 2.7 percent in 2023. This is the weakest growth profile since 2001 except for the global financial crisis and the acute phase of the COVID-19 pandemic. Global inflation is forecast to rise from 4.7 percent in 2021 to 8.8 percent in 2022 but to decline to 6.5 percent in 2023 and to 4.1 percent by 2024. Monetary policy should stay the course to restore price stability, and fiscal policy should aim to alleviate the cost-of-living pressures while maintaining a sufficiently tight stance aligned with monetary policy. Structural reforms can further support the fight against inflation by improving productivity and easing supply constraints, while multilateral cooperation is necessary for fast-tracking the green energy transition and preventing fragmentation.
Quarterly Bulletin On Food Price Dynamics Inflation And The Food Security Situation In Sudan 2021q1 2022q4
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Author : Ahmed, Mosab O. M.
language : en
Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst
Release Date : 2023-04-14
Quarterly Bulletin On Food Price Dynamics Inflation And The Food Security Situation In Sudan 2021q1 2022q4 written by Ahmed, Mosab O. M. and has been published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2023-04-14 with Political Science categories.
- Average international prices of wheat, sorghum, rice, and sugar slightly increased in Q4 of 2022 compared to Q3. Import parity prices decreased during the same period because of the reduction in the freight cost to Port Sudan. - Annual inflation2 decreased from three-digit inflation (260.6 percent) in 2022Q1 to 92.6 percent in 2022Q4. - Quarterly changes in the price of non-volatile commodities (core inflation) 3 increased slightly in Q4 compared to Q3 of 2022 due to the increase in the housing rents, education, communication, and processed food prices. - Retail prices of food commodities were relatively stable during the last two quarters of 2022 com pared to the previous quarters of 2021 and 2022. - Nominal wholesale prices of grains in Khartoum State increased gradually from 2021Q2 to reach a peak in 2022Q3, before dropping in real and nominal terms in 2022Q4. - Although the national average of causal labor daily wage was increasing over time nominally (2021Q2–2022Q4), it was decreasing in real terms in 2022Q4. - Poorer urban and rural households (bottom 40 percent) were more affected by the changes in the prices of food and beverage commodities during 2022Q4 than richer households (top 60 percent). - Blue Nile, Darfur, and Eastern regions have the highest food insecure population classified in crisis or emergency.
Inflation Dynamics In Advanced Economies A Decomposition Into Cyclical And Non Cyclical Factors
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Author : Weicheng Lian
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2022-05-13
Inflation Dynamics In Advanced Economies A Decomposition Into Cyclical And Non Cyclical Factors written by Weicheng Lian and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2022-05-13 with Business & Economics categories.
Inflation and unemployment rate were largely disconnected between 2000 and 2019 in advanced economies. We decompose core inflation into two parts based on the cyclical sensitivity of CPI components and document several salient facts: (i) both the cyclical and non-cyclical parts had surges across advaced economies in 2011, when unemployment rates had limited changes; (ii) the non-cyclical part had a downward trend between 2012 and 2019, which existed across countries, sectors, goods, and services; (iii) global indexes such as oil price, shipping costs, and a global supply chain pressure index do not explain the downward trend; and (iv) the cyclical part, after controlling for the impact of economic slack, also had a downward trend between 2012 and 2019. These patterns help disentangle competing explanations for the disconnect between inflation and unemployment rate. The approach has potential to help understand forces shaping price pressures during the pandemic and in the post-pandemic period ahead.
Thailand 2021 Article Iv Consultation Press Release Staff Report And Statement By The Executive Director For Thailand
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Author : International Monetary
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2021-06-03
Thailand 2021 Article Iv Consultation Press Release Staff Report And Statement By The Executive Director For Thailand written by International Monetary and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021-06-03 with Business & Economics categories.
A nascent recovery is underway in Thailand following the COVID-19 downturn. Ample policy buffers, underpinned by judicious management of public finances, allowed the authorities to implement a multipronged package of fiscal, monetary, and financial policies to mitigate the COVID-19 impact on households, businesses, and the financial system. This, together with rigorous containment measures, led to a successful flattening of the infection curve during most of 2020. Nevertheless, the pandemic has taken a large toll on the economy, potentially inducing long-term scarring and increasing inequality.
Perspectives De L Conomie Mondiale Avant Propos Octobre 2022
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Author : International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
language : fr
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2022-10-11
Perspectives De L Conomie Mondiale Avant Propos Octobre 2022 written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2022-10-11 with Business & Economics categories.
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Okun S Law
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Author : Laurence M. Ball
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2013-01-14
Okun S Law written by Laurence M. Ball and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-01-14 with Business & Economics categories.
This paper asks how well Okun’s Law fits short-run unemployment movements in the United States since 1948 and in twenty advanced economies since 1980. We find that Okun’s Law isa strong and stable relationship in most countries, one that did not change substantiallyduring the Great Recession. Accounts of breakdowns in the Law, such as the emergence of“jobless recoveries,” are flawed. We also find that the coefficient in the relationship—the effect of a one percent change in output on the unemployment rate—varies substantially across countries. This variation is partly explained by idiosyncratic features of national labormarkets, but it is not related to differences in employment protection legislation.
Growth Forecast Errors And Fiscal Multipliers
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Author : Mr.Olivier J. Blanchard
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2013-01-03
Growth Forecast Errors And Fiscal Multipliers written by Mr.Olivier J. Blanchard and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-01-03 with Business & Economics categories.
This paper investigates the relation between growth forecast errors and planned fiscal consolidation during the crisis. We find that, in advanced economies, stronger planned fiscal consolidation has been associated with lower growth than expected, with the relation being particularly strong, both statistically and economically, early in the crisis. A natural interpretation is that fiscal multipliers were substantially higher than implicitly assumed by forecasters. The weaker relation in more recent years may reflect in part learning by forecasters and in part smaller multipliers than in the early years of the crisis.