Understanding U S Inflation During The Covid Era
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Understanding U S Inflation During The Covid Era
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Author : Laurence M. Ball
language : en
Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Release Date : 2022-10-28
Understanding U S Inflation During The Covid Era written by Laurence M. Ball and has been published by INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2022-10-28 with Business & Economics categories.
This paper analyzes the dramatic rise in U.S. inflation since 2020, which we decompose into a rise in core inflation as measured by the weighted median inflation rate and deviations of headline inflation from core. We explain the rise in core with two factors, the tightening of the labor market as captured by the ratio of job vacancies to unemployment, and the pass-through into core from past shocks to headline inflation. The headline shocks themselves are explained largely by increases in energy prices and by supply chain problems as captured by backlogs of orders for goods and services. Looking forward, we simulate the future path of inflation for alternative paths of the unemployment rate, focusing on the projections of Federal Reserve policymakers in which unemployment rises only modestly to 4.4 percent. We find that this unemployment path returns inflation to near the Fed’s target only under optimistic assumptions about both inflation expectations and the Beveridge curve relating the unemployment and vacancy rates. Under less benign assumptions about these factors, the inflation rate remains well above target unless unemployment rises by more than the Fed projects.
The Great Inflation
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Author : Michael D. Bordo
language : en
Publisher: University of Chicago Press
Release Date : 2013-06-28
The Great Inflation written by Michael D. Bordo and has been published by University of Chicago Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-06-28 with Business & Economics categories.
Controlling inflation is among the most important objectives of economic policy. By maintaining price stability, policy makers are able to reduce uncertainty, improve price-monitoring mechanisms, and facilitate more efficient planning and allocation of resources, thereby raising productivity. This volume focuses on understanding the causes of the Great Inflation of the 1970s and ’80s, which saw rising inflation in many nations, and which propelled interest rates across the developing world into the double digits. In the decades since, the immediate cause of the period’s rise in inflation has been the subject of considerable debate. Among the areas of contention are the role of monetary policy in driving inflation and the implications this had both for policy design and for evaluating the performance of those who set the policy. Here, contributors map monetary policy from the 1960s to the present, shedding light on the ways in which the lessons of the Great Inflation were absorbed and applied to today’s global and increasingly complex economic environment.
Understanding Post Covid Inflation Dynamics
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Author : Martin Harding
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2023-01-20
Understanding Post Covid Inflation Dynamics written by Martin Harding and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2023-01-20 with Business & Economics categories.
We propose a macroeconomic model with a nonlinear Phillips curve that has a flat slope when inflationary pressures are subdued and steepens when inflationary pressures are elevated. The nonlinear Phillips curve in our model arises due to a quasi-kinked demand schedule for goods produced by firms. Our model can jointly account for the modest decline in inflation during the Great Recession and the surge in inflation during the Post-Covid period. Because our model implies a stronger transmission of shocks when inflation is high, it generates conditional heteroskedasticity in inflation and inflation risk. Hence, our model can generate more sizeable inflation surges due to cost-push and demand shocks than a standard linearized model. Finally, our model implies that the central bank faces a more severe trade-off between inflation and output stabilization when inflation is high.
Global Value Chain And Inflation Dynamics
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Author : Vu Chau
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2024-03-22
Global Value Chain And Inflation Dynamics written by Vu Chau and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2024-03-22 with Business & Economics categories.
We study the inflationary impacts of pandemic lockdown shocks and fiscal and monetary stimulus during 2020-2022 using a novel harmonized dataset of sectoral producer price inflation and input-output linkages for more than 1000 sectors in 53 countries. The inflationary impact of shocks is identified via a Bartik shift-share design, where shares reflect the heterogeneous sectoral exposure to shocks and are derived from a macroeconomic model of international production network. We find that pandemic lockdowns, and subsequent reopening policies, were the most dominant driver of global inflation in this period, especially through their impact on aggregate demand. We provide a decomposition of lockdown shock by sources, and find that between 20-30 percent of the demand effect of lockdown/reopening is due to spillover from abroad. Finally, while fiscal and monetary policies played an important role in preventing deflation in 2020, their effects diminished in the recovery years.
The 2020 2022 Inflation Surge Across Europe A Phillips Curve Based Dissection
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Author : Chikako Baba
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2023-02-10
The 2020 2022 Inflation Surge Across Europe A Phillips Curve Based Dissection written by Chikako Baba and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2023-02-10 with Business & Economics categories.
In 2021-22, inflation in Europe soared to multidecade highs, consistently exceeding policymakers’ forecasts and surprising with its wide cross-country dispersion. This paper analyzes the key drivers of the inflation surge in Europe and its variation across countries. The analysis highlights significant differences in Phillips curve parameters across Europe’s economies. Inflation is more sensitive to domestic slack and external price pressures in emerging European economies compared to their advanced counterparts, which contributed to a greater passthrough of global commodity price shocks into domestic prices, and, consequently, to larger increases in inflation rates. Across Europe, inflation also appears to have become increasingly backward looking and more sensitive to commodity price shocks since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. This finding helps explain why conventional (Phillips curve) inflation models consistently underpredicted the 2021-2022 inflation surge, although it remains too early to conclude there has been a structural break in the inflation process.
Unconventional Fiscal Policy In Times Of High Inflation
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Author : Mai Dao
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2023-09
Unconventional Fiscal Policy In Times Of High Inflation written by Mai Dao and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2023-09 with Business & Economics categories.
The surge in energy prices in 2022 has been a defining factor behind the increase in euro area inflation. We assess the impact of “unconventional fiscal policy,” defined as the set of fiscal measures, possibly expansionary, motivated by a desire to mute the effects of the increase in energy prices and to lower inflation. Overall, we find that these unconventional measures reduced euro area inflation by 1 to 2 percentage points in 2022 and may avoid an undershoot later on. When nonlinearities in the Phillips curve are taken into account, the net effect is to reduce inflation by about 0.5 percentage points in 2021-24, and keep it nearer to its target. About one-third to one-half of the reduction in 2022 reflects the direct effects of the measures on headline inflation, with much of the remainder reflecting the lower pass-through to core inflation. The fiscal measures were deficit-financed but had limited effects on raising inflation by stimulating demand and instead modestly helped to stabilize longer-term inflation expectations. Looking ahead, the prospective decline in inflation in the euro area is partly due to fortunate circumstances, with energy prices falling from their 2022 peaks and their pass-through effects fading, and with less economic overheating than in economies such as the United States. Implementing similar measures in the face of a more persistent increase in energy prices, or in a more overheated economy, would have caused a more persistent rise in core inflation.
Modern Monetary Theory
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Author : Eduardo Garzón Espinosa
language : en
Publisher: Taylor & Francis
Release Date : 2024-03-05
Modern Monetary Theory written by Eduardo Garzón Espinosa and has been published by Taylor & Francis this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2024-03-05 with Business & Economics categories.
This book offers a rigorous, detailed, and balanced analysis of the various contributions to the Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) debate, incorporating both the arguments of proponents and those who point to its limitations and obstacles. Modern Monetary Theory has soared in popularity, particularly in response to the Covid-19 pandemic and subsequent impacts on the economy which have led to deeper discussions about monetary and financial systems, fiscal and monetary policies, inflation, and employment. The main characteristic of Modern Monetary Theory is that it offers a revolutionary way of thinking about all these issues, allowing us to abandon many of the myths that conventional economic theory installed in the collective imagination. Breaking down these false beliefs is an essential requirement for thinking and devising economic policy proposals that allow full employment to be achieved without suffering worrying inflation rates. However, this approach has also attracted many criticisms and it is also instructive to consider these in more detail to reach a fully rounded conclusion about the potential or merits of MMT. Written to be accessible to the non-economist, this book will be of great interest to readers from across the social sciences, and outside of academia who want to gain a fuller understanding of the Modern Monetary Theory phenomenon.
Demand Vs Supply Decomposition Of Inflation Cross Country Evidence With Applications
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Author : Melih Firat
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2023-10-17
Demand Vs Supply Decomposition Of Inflation Cross Country Evidence With Applications written by Melih Firat and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2023-10-17 with Business & Economics categories.
What are the contributions of demand and supply factors to inflation? To address this question, we follow Shapiro (2022) and construct quarterly demand-driven and supply-driven inflation series for 32 countries utilizing sectoral Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data. We highlight global trends and country-specific differences in inflation decompositions during critical periods such as the great financial crisis of 2008 and the recent inflation surge since 2021. Validating our inflation series, we find that supply-driven inflation is more reactive to oil shocks and supply chain pressures, while demand-driven inflation displays a more pronounced response to monetary policy shocks. Our results also suggest a steeper Phillips curve when inflation is demand-driven, holding significant implications for effective policy design.
A Practical Guide To Macroeconomics
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Author : Jeremy B. Rudd
language : en
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Release Date : 2024-03-31
A Practical Guide To Macroeconomics written by Jeremy B. Rudd and has been published by Cambridge University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2024-03-31 with Business & Economics categories.
The book gives an insider's perspective on how policy economists do their jobs. It is intended for academics and students who want to make their economic research more relevant for policy, or for anyone who wants an overview of some of the important unanswered questions in macroeconomics.
Can Energy Subsidies Help Slay Inflation
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Author : Christopher J. Erceg
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2024-04-05
Can Energy Subsidies Help Slay Inflation written by Christopher J. Erceg and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2024-04-05 with Business & Economics categories.
Many countries have used energy subsidies to cushion the effects of high energy prices on households and firms. After documenting the transmission of oil supply shocks empirically in the United States and the Euro Area, we use a New Keynesian modeling framework to study the conditions under which these policies can curb inflation. We first consider a closed economy model to show that a consumer subsidy may be counterproductive, especially as an inflation-fighting tool, when applied globally or in a segmented market, at least under empirically plausible conditions about wage-setting. We find more scope for energy subsidies to reduce core inflation and stimulate demand if introduced by a small group of countries which collectively do not have much influence on global energy prices. However, the conditions under which consumer energy subsidies reduce inflation are still quite restrictive, and this type of policy may well be counterproductive if the resulting increase in external debt is high enough to trigger sizeable exchange rate depreciation. Such effects are more likely in emerging markets with shallow foreign exchange markets. If the primary goal of using fiscal measures in response to spikes in energy prices is to shield vulnerable households, then targeted transfers are much more efficient as they achieve their goals at lower fiscal cost and transmit less to core inflation.