Modeling Uncertainty In The Earth Sciences
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Modeling Uncertainty In The Earth Sciences
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Author : Jef Caers
language : en
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Release Date : 2011-05-25
Modeling Uncertainty In The Earth Sciences written by Jef Caers and has been published by John Wiley & Sons this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2011-05-25 with Science categories.
Modeling Uncertainty in the Earth Sciences highlights the various issues, techniques and practical modeling tools available for modeling the uncertainty of complex Earth systems and the impact that it has on practical situations. The aim of the book is to provide an introductory overview which covers a broad range of tried-and-tested tools. Descriptions of concepts, philosophies, challenges, methodologies and workflows give the reader an understanding of the best way to make decisions under uncertainty for Earth Science problems. The book covers key issues such as: Spatial and time aspect; large complexity and dimensionality; computation power; costs of 'engineering' the Earth; uncertainty in the modeling and decision process. Focusing on reliable and practical methods this book provides an invaluable primer for the complex area of decision making with uncertainty in the Earth Sciences.
The Science And Management Of Uncertainty
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Author : Bruce G. Marcot
language : en
Publisher: CRC Press
Release Date : 2020-11-26
The Science And Management Of Uncertainty written by Bruce G. Marcot and has been published by CRC Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020-11-26 with Business & Economics categories.
Uncertainty can take many forms, can be represented in many ways, and can have important implications in decision-making and policy development. This book provides a rigorous scientific framework for dealing with uncertainty in real-world situations, and provides a comprehensive study of concepts, measurements, and applications of uncertainty in ecological modeling and natural resource management. The focus of this book is on the kinds and implications of uncertainty in environmental modeling and management, with practical guidelines and examples for successful modeling and risk analysis in the face of uncertain conditions and incomplete information. Provided is a clear classification of uncertainty; methods for measuring, modeling, and communicating uncertainty; practical guidelines for capturing and representing expert knowledge and judgment; explanations of the role of uncertainty in decision-making; a guideline to avoiding logical fallacies when dealing with uncertainty; and several example cases of real-world ecological modeling and risk analysis to illustrate the concepts and approaches. Case topics provide examples of structured decision-making, statistical modeling, and related topics. A summary provides practical next steps that the reader can take in analyzing and interpreting uncertainty in real-world situations. Also provided is a glossary and a suite of references.
Spatial Modeling Principles In Earth Sciences
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Author : Zekai Sen
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2009-06-10
Spatial Modeling Principles In Earth Sciences written by Zekai Sen and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2009-06-10 with Science categories.
Spatial Modeling Principles in Earth Sciences presents fundamentals of spatial data analysis used in hydrology, geology, meteorology, atmospheric science and related fields. It examines methods for the quantitative determination of the spatial distribution patterns. This book brings together the material from the current literature in earth sciences and practical examples. It provides a sound background of philosophical, logical, rational and physical principles of spatial data and analysis, and explains how it can be modeled and applied in earth sciences projects and designs. It collects information not previously available in one source, and provides methodology for the treatment of spatial data to find the most rational and practical solution. The book is a valuable resource for students, researchers and practitioners of a broad range of disciplines including geology, geography, hydrology, meteorology, environment, image processing, spatial modeling and related topics.
Sensitivity Analysis In Earth Observation Modelling
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Author : George P. Petropoulos
language : en
Publisher: Elsevier
Release Date : 2016-10-07
Sensitivity Analysis In Earth Observation Modelling written by George P. Petropoulos and has been published by Elsevier this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016-10-07 with Science categories.
Sensitivity Analysis in Earth Observation Modeling highlights the state-of-the-art in ongoing research investigations and new applications of sensitivity analysis in earth observation modeling. In this framework, original works concerned with the development or exploitation of diverse methods applied to different types of earth observation data or earth observation-based modeling approaches are included. An overview of sensitivity analysis methods and principles is provided first, followed by examples of applications and case studies of different sensitivity/uncertainty analysis implementation methods, covering the full spectrum of sensitivity analysis techniques, including operational products. Finally, the book outlines challenges and future prospects for implementation in earth observation modeling. Information provided in this book is of practical value to readers looking to understand the principles of sensitivity analysis in earth observation modeling, the level of scientific maturity in the field, and where the main limitations or challenges are in terms of improving our ability to implement such approaches in a wide range of applications. Readers will also be informed on the implementation of sensitivity/uncertainty analysis on operational products available at present, on global and continental scales. All of this information is vital in the selection process of the most appropriate sensitivity analysis method to implement. - Outlines challenges and future prospects of sensitivity analysis implementation in earth observation modeling - Provides readers with a roadmap for directing future efforts - Includes case studies with applications from different regions around the globe, helping readers to explore strengths and weaknesses of the different methods in earth observation modeling - Presents a step-by-step guide, providing the principles of each method followed by the application of variants, making the reference easy to use and follow
Natural Hazard Uncertainty Assessment
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Author : Karin Riley
language : en
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Release Date : 2016-12-12
Natural Hazard Uncertainty Assessment written by Karin Riley and has been published by John Wiley & Sons this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016-12-12 with Science categories.
Uncertainties are pervasive in natural hazards, and it is crucial to develop robust and meaningful approaches to characterize and communicate uncertainties to inform modeling efforts. In this monograph we provide a broad, cross-disciplinary overview of issues relating to uncertainties faced in natural hazard and risk assessment. We introduce some basic tenets of uncertainty analysis, discuss issues related to communication and decision support, and offer numerous examples of analyses and modeling approaches that vary by context and scope. Contributors include scientists from across the full breath of the natural hazard scientific community, from those in real-time analysis of natural hazards to those in the research community from academia and government. Key themes and highlights include: Substantial breadth and depth of analysis in terms of the types of natural hazards addressed, the disciplinary perspectives represented, and the number of studies included Targeted, application-centered analyses with a focus on development and use of modeling techniques to address various sources of uncertainty Emphasis on the impacts of climate change on natural hazard processes and outcomes Recommendations for cross-disciplinary and science transfer across natural hazard sciences This volume will be an excellent resource for those interested in the current work on uncertainty classification/quantification and will document common and emergent research themes to allow all to learn from each other and build a more connected but still diverse and ever growing community of scientists. Read an interview with the editors to find out more: https://eos.org/editors-vox/reducing-uncertainty-in-hazard-prediction
Quantitative Geosciences Data Analytics Geostatistics Reservoir Characterization And Modeling
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Author : Y. Z. Ma
language : en
Publisher: Springer
Release Date : 2019-07-15
Quantitative Geosciences Data Analytics Geostatistics Reservoir Characterization And Modeling written by Y. Z. Ma and has been published by Springer this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019-07-15 with Technology & Engineering categories.
Earth science is becoming increasingly quantitative in the digital age. Quantification of geoscience and engineering problems underpins many of the applications of big data and artificial intelligence. This book presents quantitative geosciences in three parts. Part 1 presents data analytics using probability, statistical and machine-learning methods. Part 2 covers reservoir characterization using several geoscience disciplines: including geology, geophysics, petrophysics and geostatistics. Part 3 treats reservoir modeling, resource evaluation and uncertainty analysis using integrated geoscience, engineering and geostatistical methods. As the petroleum industry is heading towards operating oil fields digitally, a multidisciplinary skillset is a must for geoscientists who need to use data analytics to resolve inconsistencies in various sources of data, model reservoir properties, evaluate uncertainties, and quantify risk for decision making. This book intends to serve as a bridge for advancing the multidisciplinary integration for digital fields. The goal is to move beyond using quantitative methods individually to an integrated descriptive-quantitative analysis. In big data, everything tells us something, but nothing tells us everything. This book emphasizes the integrated, multidisciplinary solutions for practical problems in resource evaluation and field development.
3d Geoscience Modeling
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Author : Simon Houlding
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2012-12-06
3d Geoscience Modeling written by Simon Houlding and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-12-06 with Science categories.
This book is a result of a career spent developing and applying computer techniques for the geosciences. The need for a geoscience modeling reference became apparent during participation in several workshops and conferences on the subject in the last three years. For organizing these, and for the lively discussions that ensued and inevitably contributed to the contents, I thank Keith Turner, Brian Kelk, George Pflug and Johnathan Raper. The total number of colleagues who contributed in various ways over the preceding years to the concepts and techniques presented is beyond count. The book is dedicated to all of them. Compilation of the book would have been impossible without assistance from a number of colleagues who contributed directly. In particular, Ed Rychkun, Joe Ringwald, Dave Elliott, Tom Fisher and Richard Saccany reviewed parts of the text and contributed valuable comment. Mohan Srivastava reviewed and contributed to some of the geostatistical presentations. Mark Stoakes, Peter Dettlaff and Simon Wigzell assisted with computer processing of the many application examples. Anar Khanji and Randal Crombe assisted in preparation of the text and computer images. Klaus Lamers assisted with printing. The US Geological Survey, the British Columbia Ministry of Environment, Dave Elliott and others provided data for the application examples. My sincere thanks to all of them.
Demystifying Climate Models
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Author : Andrew Gettelman
language : en
Publisher: Springer
Release Date : 2016-04-09
Demystifying Climate Models written by Andrew Gettelman and has been published by Springer this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016-04-09 with Technology & Engineering categories.
This book demystifies the models we use to simulate present and future climates, allowing readers to better understand how to use climate model results. In order to predict the future trajectory of the Earth’s climate, climate-system simulation models are necessary. When and how do we trust climate model predictions? The book offers a framework for answering this question. It provides readers with a basic primer on climate and climate change, and offers non-technical explanations for how climate models are constructed, why they are uncertain, and what level of confidence we should place in them. It presents current results and the key uncertainties concerning them. Uncertainty is not a weakness but understanding uncertainty is a strength and a key part of using any model, including climate models. Case studies of how climate model output has been used and how it might be used in the future are provided. The ultimate goal of this book is to promote a better understanding of the structure and uncertainties of climate models among users, including scientists, engineers and policymakers.
Uncertainty Quantification And Predictive Computational Science
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Author : Ryan G. McClarren
language : en
Publisher: Springer
Release Date : 2018-11-23
Uncertainty Quantification And Predictive Computational Science written by Ryan G. McClarren and has been published by Springer this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018-11-23 with Science categories.
This textbook teaches the essential background and skills for understanding and quantifying uncertainties in a computational simulation, and for predicting the behavior of a system under those uncertainties. It addresses a critical knowledge gap in the widespread adoption of simulation in high-consequence decision-making throughout the engineering and physical sciences. Constructing sophisticated techniques for prediction from basic building blocks, the book first reviews the fundamentals that underpin later topics of the book including probability, sampling, and Bayesian statistics. Part II focuses on applying Local Sensitivity Analysis to apportion uncertainty in the model outputs to sources of uncertainty in its inputs. Part III demonstrates techniques for quantifying the impact of parametric uncertainties on a problem, specifically how input uncertainties affect outputs. The final section covers techniques for applying uncertainty quantification to make predictions under uncertainty, including treatment of epistemic uncertainties. It presents the theory and practice of predicting the behavior of a system based on the aggregation of data from simulation, theory, and experiment. The text focuses on simulations based on the solution of systems of partial differential equations and includes in-depth coverage of Monte Carlo methods, basic design of computer experiments, as well as regularized statistical techniques. Code references, in python, appear throughout the text and online as executable code, enabling readers to perform the analysis under discussion. Worked examples from realistic, model problems help readers understand the mechanics of applying the methods. Each chapter ends with several assignable problems. Uncertainty Quantification and Predictive Computational Science fills the growing need for a classroom text for senior undergraduate and early-career graduate students in the engineering and physical sciences and supports independent study by researchers and professionals who must include uncertainty quantification and predictive science in the simulations they develop and/or perform.
Environmental Modelling
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Author : Keith Beven
language : en
Publisher: CRC Press
Release Date : 2018-09-03
Environmental Modelling written by Keith Beven and has been published by CRC Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018-09-03 with Science categories.
Uncertainty in the predictions of science when applied to the environment is an issue of great current relevance in relation to the impacts of climate change, protecting against natural and man-made disasters, pollutant transport and sustainable resource management. However, it is often ignored both by scientists and decision makers, or interpreted as a conflict or disagreement between scientists. This is not necessarily the case, the scientists might well agree, but their predictions would still be uncertain and knowledge of that uncertainty might be important in decision making. Environmental Modelling: An Uncertain Future? introduces students, scientists and decision makers to: the different concepts and techniques of uncertainty estimation in environmental prediction the philosophical background to different concepts of uncertainty the constraint of uncertainties by the collection of observations and data assimilation in real-time forecasting techniques for decision making under uncertainty. This book will be relevant to environmental modellers, practitioners and decision makers in hydrology, hydraulics, ecology, meteorology and oceanography, geomorphology, geochemistry, soil science, pollutant transport and climate change. A companion website for the book can be found at www.uncertain-future.org.uk