The Science And Management Of Uncertainty
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The Science And Management Of Uncertainty
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Author : Bruce G. Marcot
language : en
Publisher: CRC Press
Release Date : 2020-11-26
The Science And Management Of Uncertainty written by Bruce G. Marcot and has been published by CRC Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020-11-26 with Business & Economics categories.
Uncertainty can take many forms, can be represented in many ways, and can have important implications in decision-making and policy development. This book provides a rigorous scientific framework for dealing with uncertainty in real-world situations, and provides a comprehensive study of concepts, measurements, and applications of uncertainty in ecological modeling and natural resource management. The focus of this book is on the kinds and implications of uncertainty in environmental modeling and management, with practical guidelines and examples for successful modeling and risk analysis in the face of uncertain conditions and incomplete information. Provided is a clear classification of uncertainty; methods for measuring, modeling, and communicating uncertainty; practical guidelines for capturing and representing expert knowledge and judgment; explanations of the role of uncertainty in decision-making; a guideline to avoiding logical fallacies when dealing with uncertainty; and several example cases of real-world ecological modeling and risk analysis to illustrate the concepts and approaches. Case topics provide examples of structured decision-making, statistical modeling, and related topics. A summary provides practical next steps that the reader can take in analyzing and interpreting uncertainty in real-world situations. Also provided is a glossary and a suite of references.
Scientific Methods For The Treatment Of Uncertainty In Social Sciences
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Author : Jaime Gil-Aluja
language : en
Publisher: Springer
Release Date : 2015-06-17
Scientific Methods For The Treatment Of Uncertainty In Social Sciences written by Jaime Gil-Aluja and has been published by Springer this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2015-06-17 with Technology & Engineering categories.
This book is a collection of selected papers presented at the SIGEF conference, held at the Faculty of Economics and Business of the University of Girona (Spain), 06-08 July, 2015. This edition of the conference has been presented with the slogan “Scientific methods for the treatment of uncertainty in social sciences”. There are different ways for dealing with uncertainty in management. The book focuses on soft computing theories and their role in assessing uncertainty in a complex world. It gives a comprehensive overview of quantitative management topics and discusses some of the most recent developments in all the areas of business and management in soft computing including Decision Making, Expert Systems and Forgotten Effects Theory, Forecasting Models, Fuzzy Logic and Fuzzy Sets, Modelling and Simulation Techniques, Neural Networks and Genetic Algorithms and Optimization and Control. The book might be of great interest for anyone working in the area of management and business economics and might be especially useful for scientists and graduate students doing research in these fields.
Uncertainty And Quality In Science For Policy
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Author : S.O. Funtowicz
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 1990-10-31
Uncertainty And Quality In Science For Policy written by S.O. Funtowicz and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1990-10-31 with Social Science categories.
This book explains the notational system NUSAP (Numeral, Unit, Spread, Assessment, Pedigree) and applies it to several examples from the environmental sciences. The authors are now making further extensions of NUSAP, including an algorithm for the propagation of quality-grades through models used in risk and safety studies. They are also developing the concept of `Post-normal Science', in which quality assurance of information requires the participation of `extended peer-communities' lying outside the traditional expertise.
The Management Of Uncertainty
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Author : Angela Liberatore
language : en
Publisher: Routledge
Release Date : 2013-10-18
The Management Of Uncertainty written by Angela Liberatore and has been published by Routledge this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-10-18 with Business & Economics categories.
This investigative analysis studies why key European countries responded differently to the Chernobyl nuclear disaster, and what can be learned from it. The author details why the accident was defined differently in various countries, why actions were or were not taken, and what was learned about the management of nuclear risk. Furthermore, Liberatore studies the short-term and long-term responses and consequences of Chernobyl not only in specific countries, but within the European Union as a whole. Liberatore also provides a policy communication model to illustrate the interaction among the key personnel in such incidents: the scientists, the politicians, the interest groups, and the mass media. The author's focus upon uncertainty managementis a compelling account for all who seek to understand and improve the practical management of transboundary risks.
Decisions Uncertainty And The Brain
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Author : Paul W. Glimcher
language : en
Publisher: MIT Press
Release Date : 2004-09-17
Decisions Uncertainty And The Brain written by Paul W. Glimcher and has been published by MIT Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2004-09-17 with Medical categories.
In this provocative book, Paul Glimcher argues that economic theory may provide an alternative to the classical Cartesian model of the brain and behavior. Glimcher argues that Cartesian dualism operates from the false premise that the reflex is able to describe behavior in the real world that animals inhabit. A mathematically rich cognitive theory, he claims, could solve the most difficult problems that any environment could present, eliminating the need for dualism by eliminating the need for a reflex theory. Such a mathematically rigorous description of the neural processes that connect sensation and action, he explains, will have its roots in microeconomic theory. Economic theory allows physiologists to define both the optimal course of action that an animal might select and a mathematical route by which that optimal solution can be derived. Glimcher outlines what an economics-based cognitive model might look like and how one would begin to test it empirically. Along the way, he presents a fascinating history of neuroscience. He also discusses related questions about determinism, free will, and the stochastic nature of complex behavior.
Uncertainty Management With Fuzzy And Rough Sets
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Author : Rafael Bello
language : en
Publisher: Springer
Release Date : 2019-01-22
Uncertainty Management With Fuzzy And Rough Sets written by Rafael Bello and has been published by Springer this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019-01-22 with Computers categories.
This book offers a timely overview of fuzzy and rough set theories and methods. Based on selected contributions presented at the International Symposium on Fuzzy and Rough Sets, ISFUROS 2017, held in Varadero, Cuba, on October 24-26, 2017, the book also covers related approaches, such as hybrid rough-fuzzy sets and hybrid fuzzy-rough sets and granular computing, as well as a number of applications, from big data analytics, to business intelligence, security, robotics, logistics, wireless sensor networks and many more. It is intended as a source of inspiration for PhD students and researchers in the field, fostering not only new ideas but also collaboration between young researchers and institutions and established ones.
Fuzzy Logic For The Management Of Uncertainty
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Author : Lotfi Asker Zadeh
language : en
Publisher: Wiley-Interscience
Release Date : 1992-07-30
Fuzzy Logic For The Management Of Uncertainty written by Lotfi Asker Zadeh and has been published by Wiley-Interscience this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1992-07-30 with Computers categories.
Fuzzy Logic for the Management of Uncertainty covers many important topics, including:" "Developments in mathematics that have paved the road for fuzzy logic;" "Deep, and of a broad perspective, exposition of virtually all approaches used in contemporary science for the representation and handling of imperfect (uncertain, imprecise, vague, ambiguous, etc.) information;" "Coverage of practically all relevant and promising directions and approaches in fuzzy logic research including LT--fuzzy logic, model theoretic approaches, intuitionistic fuzzy logic, nonmonotonic fuzzy logic, modifier fuzzy logic;" "VLSI fuzzy logic-based chips that have triggered the implementation of fuzzy logic in so many fields of science and technology;" "A broad coverage of fuzzy logic in approximate reasoning, including basic issues related to the role of fuzzy logic for approximate reasoning, analyses of various definitions of fuzzy implication that is a crucial element in fuzzy logic-based reasoning schemes,
Perspectives On Uncertainty And Risk
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Author : M. B. A. van Asselt
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2000-09-30
Perspectives On Uncertainty And Risk written by M. B. A. van Asselt and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2000-09-30 with Business & Economics categories.
This volume is intended to stimulate a change in the practice of decision support, advocating an interdisciplinary approach centred on both social and natural sciences, both theory and practice. It addresses the issue of analysis and management of uncertainty and risk in decision support corresponding to the aims of Integrated Assessment. A pluralistic method is necessary to account for legitimate plural interpretations of uncertainty and multiple risk perceptions. A wide range of methods and tools is presented to contribute to adequate and effective pluralistic uncertainty management and risk analysis in decision support endeavours. Special attention is given to the development of one such approach, the Pluralistic fRamework for Integrated uncertainty Management and risk Analysis (PRIMA), of which the practical value is explored in the context of the Environmental Outlooks produced by the Dutch Institute for Public Health and Environment (RIVM). Audience: This book will be of interest to researchers and practitioners whose work involves decision support, uncertainty management, risk analysis, environmental planning, and Integrated Assessment.
Operations Research Management Science
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Author : George Kuttickal Chacko
language : en
Publisher: McGraw-Hill Companies
Release Date : 1993
Operations Research Management Science written by George Kuttickal Chacko and has been published by McGraw-Hill Companies this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1993 with Business & Economics categories.
Modeling Uncertainty In The Earth Sciences
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Author : Jef Caers
language : en
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Release Date : 2011-05-25
Modeling Uncertainty In The Earth Sciences written by Jef Caers and has been published by John Wiley & Sons this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2011-05-25 with Science categories.
Modeling Uncertainty in the Earth Sciences highlights the various issues, techniques and practical modeling tools available for modeling the uncertainty of complex Earth systems and the impact that it has on practical situations. The aim of the book is to provide an introductory overview which covers a broad range of tried-and-tested tools. Descriptions of concepts, philosophies, challenges, methodologies and workflows give the reader an understanding of the best way to make decisions under uncertainty for Earth Science problems. The book covers key issues such as: Spatial and time aspect; large complexity and dimensionality; computation power; costs of 'engineering' the Earth; uncertainty in the modeling and decision process. Focusing on reliable and practical methods this book provides an invaluable primer for the complex area of decision making with uncertainty in the Earth Sciences.