Modelling Uncertainty In Flood Forecasting Systems
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Modelling Uncertainty In Flood Forecasting Systems
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Author : Shreedhar Maskey
language : en
Publisher: CRC Press
Release Date : 2004-05-15
Modelling Uncertainty In Flood Forecasting Systems written by Shreedhar Maskey and has been published by CRC Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2004-05-15 with Science categories.
Like all natural hazards, flooding is a complex and inherently uncertain phenomenon. Despite advances in developing flood forecasting models and techniques, the uncertainty in forecasts remains unavoidable. This uncertainty needs to be acknowledged, and uncertainty estimation in flood forecasting provides a rational basis for risk-based
Modelling Uncertainty In Flood Forecasting Systems
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Author : Shreeda Maskey
language : en
Publisher: CRC Press
Release Date : 2004-11-23
Modelling Uncertainty In Flood Forecasting Systems written by Shreeda Maskey and has been published by CRC Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2004-11-23 with Science categories.
Like all natural hazards, flooding is a complex and inherently uncertain phenomenon. Despite advances in developing flood forecasting models and techniques, the uncertainty in forecasts remains unavoidable. This uncertainty needs to be acknowledged, and uncertainty estimation in flood forecasting provides a rational basis for risk-based criteria. This book presents the development and applications of various methods based on probablity and fuzzy set theories for modelling uncertainty in flood forecasting systems. In particular, it presents a methodology for uncertainty assessment using disaggregation of time series inputs in the framework of both the Monte Carlo method and the Fuzzy Extention Principle. It reports an improvement in the First Order Second Moment method, using second degree reconstruction, and derives qualitative scales for the interpretation of qualitative uncertainty. Application is to flood forecasting models for the Klodzko catchment in POland and the Loire River in France. Prospects for the hybrid techniques of uncertainty modelling and probability-possibility transformations are also explored and reported.
Modelling Uncertainty In Flood Forecasting Systems
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Author : Shreedhar Maskey
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2004
Modelling Uncertainty In Flood Forecasting Systems written by Shreedhar Maskey and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2004 with Flood forecasting categories.
Applied Uncertainty Analysis For Flood Risk Management
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Author : Keith J. Beven
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2013-09-27
Applied Uncertainty Analysis For Flood Risk Management written by Keith J. Beven and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-09-27 with Social Science categories.
This volume provides an introduction for flood risk management practitioners, up-to-date methods for analysis of uncertainty and its use in risk-based decision making. It addresses decision making for both short term (real-time forecasting) and long term (flood risk planning under change) situations. It aims primarily at technical practitioners involved in flood risk analysis and flood warning, including hydrologists, engineers, flood modelers, risk analysts and those involved in the design and operation of flood warning systems. Many experienced practitioners are now expected to modify their way of working to fit into the new philosophy of flood risk management. This volume helps them to undertake that task with appropriate attention to the surrounding uncertainties. The book will also interest and benefit researchers and graduate students hoping to improve their knowledge of modern uncertainty analysis.
Stochastic Flood Forecasting System
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Author : Renata J. Romanowicz
language : en
Publisher: Springer
Release Date : 2015-06-29
Stochastic Flood Forecasting System written by Renata J. Romanowicz and has been published by Springer this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2015-06-29 with Science categories.
This book presents the novel formulation and development of a Stochastic Flood Forecasting System, using the Middle River Vistula basin in Poland as a case study. The system has a modular structure, including models describing the rainfall-runoff and snow-melt processes for tributary catchments and the transformation of a flood wave within the reach. The sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of the elements of the study system are performed at both the calibration and verification stages. The spatial and temporal variability of catchment land use and river flow regime based on analytical studies and measurements is presented. A lumped parameter approximation to the distributed modelling of river flow is developed for the purpose of flow forecasting. Control System based emulators (Hammerstein-Wiener models) are applied to on-line data assimilation. Medium-range probabilistic weather forecasts (ECMWF) and on-line observations of temperature, precipitation and water levels are used to prolong the forecast lead time. The potential end-users will also benefit from a description of social vulnerability to natural hazards in the study area.
Improving Flood Prediction Assimilating Uncertain Crowdsourced Data Into Hydrologic And Hydraulic Models
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Author : Maurizio Mazzoleni
language : en
Publisher: CRC Press
Release Date : 2017-03-16
Improving Flood Prediction Assimilating Uncertain Crowdsourced Data Into Hydrologic And Hydraulic Models written by Maurizio Mazzoleni and has been published by CRC Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017-03-16 with Science categories.
In recent years, the continued technological advances have led to the spread of low-cost sensors and devices supporting crowdsourcing as a way to obtain observations of hydrological variables in a more distributed way than the classic static physical sensors. The main advantage of using these type of sensors is that they can be used not only by technicians but also by regular citizens. However, due to their relatively low reliability and varying accuracy in time and space, crowdsourced observations have not been widely integrated in hydrological and/or hydraulic models for flood forecasting applications. Instead, they have generally been used to validate model results against observations, in post-event analyses. This research aims to investigate the benefits of assimilating the crowdsourced observations, coming from a distributed network of heterogeneous physical and social (static and dynamic) sensors, within hydrological and hydraulic models, in order to improve flood forecasting. The results of this study demonstrate that crowdsourced observations can significantly improve flood prediction if properly integrated in hydrological and hydraulic models. This study provides technological support to citizen observatories of water, in which citizens not only can play an active role in information capturing, evaluation and communication, leading to improved model forecasts and better flood management.
River Basin Modelling For Flood Risk Mitigation
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Author : Donald Knight
language : en
Publisher: CRC Press
Release Date : 2005-11-17
River Basin Modelling For Flood Risk Mitigation written by Donald Knight and has been published by CRC Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2005-11-17 with Technology & Engineering categories.
Flooding accounts for one-third of natural disasters worldwide and for over half the deaths which occur as a result of natural disasters. As the frequency and volume of flooding increases, as a result of climate change, there is a new urgency amongst researchers and professionals working in flood risk management. River Basin Modelling for Flood Risk Mitigation brings together thirty edited papers by leading experts who gathered for the European Union’s Advanced Study Course at the University of Birmingham, UK. The scope of the course ranged from issues concerning the protection of life, to river restoration and wetland management. A variety of topics is covered in the book including climate change, hydro-informatics, hydro-meterology, river flow forecasting systems and dam-break modelling. The approach is broad, but integrated, providing an attractive and informative package that will satisfy researchers and professionals, while offering a sound introduction to students in Engineering and Geography.
Flood Forecasting Using Machine Learning Methods
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Author : Fi-John Chang
language : en
Publisher: MDPI
Release Date : 2019-02-28
Flood Forecasting Using Machine Learning Methods written by Fi-John Chang and has been published by MDPI this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019-02-28 with Technology & Engineering categories.
Nowadays, the degree and scale of flood hazards has been massively increasing as a result of the changing climate, and large-scale floods jeopardize lives and properties, causing great economic losses, in the inundation-prone areas of the world. Early flood warning systems are promising countermeasures against flood hazards and losses. A collaborative assessment according to multiple disciplines, comprising hydrology, remote sensing, and meteorology, of the magnitude and impacts of flood hazards on inundation areas significantly contributes to model the integrity and precision of flood forecasting. Methodologically oriented countermeasures against flood hazards may involve the forecasting of reservoir inflows, river flows, tropical cyclone tracks, and flooding at different lead times and/or scales. Analyses of impacts, risks, uncertainty, resilience, and scenarios coupled with policy-oriented suggestions will give information for flood hazard mitigation. Emerging advances in computing technologies coupled with big-data mining have boosted data-driven applications, among which Machine Learning technology, with its flexibility and scalability in pattern extraction, has modernized not only scientific thinking but also predictive applications. This book explores recent Machine Learning advances on flood forecast and management in a timely manner and presents interdisciplinary approaches to modelling the complexity of flood hazards-related issues, with contributions to integrative solutions from a local, regional or global perspective.
Flood Forecasting And Hydraulic Structures
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Author : P. V. Timbadiya
language : en
Publisher: Springer Nature
Release Date : 2023-08-31
Flood Forecasting And Hydraulic Structures written by P. V. Timbadiya and has been published by Springer Nature this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2023-08-31 with Science categories.
This book comprises the proceedings of the 26th International Conference on Hydraulics, Water Resources and Coastal Engineering (HYDRO 2021) focusing on broad spectrum of emerging opportunities and challenges in the field of flood forecasting and hydraulic structures. It covers a range of topics, including, but not limited to, early warning system, urban flood modelling and management, dam hazard classification, river training and protection works, structural and non-structural measures for flood mitigation, assessment and development of flood vulnerability, hazard and risk maps rehabilitation of old dams, streamflow turbines, canal operation and related structure, operation and management of dams including their instrumentation etc. Presenting recent advances in the form of illustrations, tables, and text, it offers readers insights for their own research. In addition, the book addresses fundamental concepts and studies in the field of flood forecasting and hydraulic structures, making it a valuable resource for both beginners and researchers wanting to further their understanding of hydraulics, water resources and coastal engineering.
Flood Risk Assessment And Management
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Author : Andreas H. Schumann
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2011-01-04
Flood Risk Assessment And Management written by Andreas H. Schumann and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2011-01-04 with Science categories.
Flood catastrophes which happened world-wide have shown that it is not sufficient to characterize the hazard caused by the natural phenomenon "flood" with the well-known 3M-approach (measuring, mapping and modelling). Due to the recent shift in paradigms from a safety oriented approach to risk based planning it became necessary to consider the harmful impacts of hazards. The planning tasks changed from attempts to minimise hazards towards interventions to reduce exposure or susceptibility and nowadays to enhance the capacities to increase resilience. Scientific interest shifts more and more towards interdisciplinary approaches, which are needed to avoid disaster. This book deals with many aspects of flood risk management in a comprehensive way. As risks depend on hazard and vulnerabilities, not only geophysical tools for flood forecasting and planning are presented, but also socio-economic problems of flood management are discussed. Starting with precipitation and meteorological tools to its forecasting, hydrological models are described in their applications for operational flood forecasts, considering model uncertainties and their interactions with hydraulic and groundwater models. With regard to flood risk planning, regionalization aspects and the options to utilize historic floods are discussed. New hydrological tools for flood risk assessments for dams and reservoirs are presented. Problems and options to quantify socio-economic risks and how to consider them in multi-criteria assessments of flood risk planning are discussed. This book contributes to the contemporary efforts to reduce flood risk at the European scale. Using many real-world examples, it is useful for scientists and practitioners at different levels and with different interests.