Modelling Under Risk And Uncertainty
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Modelling Under Risk And Uncertainty
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Author : Etienne de Rocquigny
language : en
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Release Date : 2012-04-30
Modelling Under Risk And Uncertainty written by Etienne de Rocquigny and has been published by John Wiley & Sons this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-04-30 with Mathematics categories.
Modelling has permeated virtually all areas of industrial, environmental, economic, bio-medical or civil engineering: yet the use of models for decision-making raises a number of issues to which this book is dedicated: How uncertain is my model ? Is it truly valuable to support decision-making ? What kind of decision can be truly supported and how can I handle residual uncertainty ? How much refined should the mathematical description be, given the true data limitations ? Could the uncertainty be reduced through more data, increased modeling investment or computational budget ? Should it be reduced now or later ? How robust is the analysis or the computational methods involved ? Should / could those methods be more robust ? Does it make sense to handle uncertainty, risk, lack of knowledge, variability or errors altogether ? How reasonable is the choice of probabilistic modeling for rare events ? How rare are the events to be considered ? How far does it make sense to handle extreme events and elaborate confidence figures ? Can I take advantage of expert / phenomenological knowledge to tighten the probabilistic figures ? Are there connex domains that could provide models or inspiration for my problem ? Written by a leader at the crossroads of industry, academia and engineering, and based on decades of multi-disciplinary field experience, Modelling Under Risk and Uncertainty gives a self-consistent introduction to the methods involved by any type of modeling development acknowledging the inevitable uncertainty and associated risks. It goes beyond the “black-box” view that some analysts, modelers, risk experts or statisticians develop on the underlying phenomenology of the environmental or industrial processes, without valuing enough their physical properties and inner modelling potential nor challenging the practical plausibility of mathematical hypotheses; conversely it is also to attract environmental or engineering modellers to better handle model confidence issues through finer statistical and risk analysis material taking advantage of advanced scientific computing, to face new regulations departing from deterministic design or support robust decision-making. Modelling Under Risk and Uncertainty: Addresses a concern of growing interest for large industries, environmentalists or analysts: robust modeling for decision-making in complex systems. Gives new insights into the peculiar mathematical and computational challenges generated by recent industrial safety or environmental control analysis for rare events. Implements decision theory choices differentiating or aggregating the dimensions of risk/aleatory and epistemic uncertainty through a consistent multi-disciplinary set of statistical estimation, physical modelling, robust computation and risk analysis. Provides an original review of the advanced inverse probabilistic approaches for model identification, calibration or data assimilation, key to digest fast-growing multi-physical data acquisition. Illustrated with one favourite pedagogical example crossing natural risk, engineering and economics, developed throughout the book to facilitate the reading and understanding. Supports Master/PhD-level course as well as advanced tutorials for professional training Analysts and researchers in numerical modeling, applied statistics, scientific computing, reliability, advanced engineering, natural risk or environmental science will benefit from this book.
Advances In Decision Making Under Risk And Uncertainty
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Author : Mohammed Abdellaoui
language : en
Publisher: Springer
Release Date : 2010-11-25
Advances In Decision Making Under Risk And Uncertainty written by Mohammed Abdellaoui and has been published by Springer this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2010-11-25 with Business & Economics categories.
Whether we like it or not we all feel that the world is uncertain. From choosing a new technology to selecting a job, we rarely know in advance what outcome will result from our decisions. Unfortunately, the standard theory of choice under uncertainty developed in the early forties and fifties turns out to be too rigid to take many tricky issues of choice under uncertainty into account. The good news is that we have now moved away from the early descriptively inadequate modeling of behavior. This book brings the reader into contact with the accomplished progress in individual decision making through the most recent contributions to uncertainty modeling and behavioral decision making. It also introduces the reader into the many subtle issues to be resolved for rational choice under uncertainty.
Modern Optimization Methods For Decision Making Under Risk And Uncertainty
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Author : Alexei A. Gaivoronski
language : en
Publisher: CRC Press
Release Date : 2023-10-06
Modern Optimization Methods For Decision Making Under Risk And Uncertainty written by Alexei A. Gaivoronski and has been published by CRC Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2023-10-06 with Computers categories.
The book comprises original articles on topical issues of risk theory, rational decision making, statistical decisions, and control of stochastic systems. The articles are the outcome of a series international projects involving the leading scholars in the field of modern stochastic optimization and decision making. The structure of stochastic optimization solvers is described. The solvers in general implement stochastic quasi-gradient methods for optimization and identification of complex nonlinear models. These models constitute an important methodology for finding optimal decisions under risk and uncertainty. While a large part of current approaches towards optimization under uncertainty stems from linear programming (LP) and often results in large LPs of special structure, stochastic quasi-gradient methods confront nonlinearities directly without need of linearization. This makes them an appropriate tool for solving complex nonlinear problems, concurrent optimization and simulation models, and equilibrium situations of different types, for instance, Nash or Stackelberg equilibrium situations. The solver finds the equilibrium solution when the optimization model describes the system with several actors. The solver is parallelizable, performing several simulation threads in parallel. It is capable of solving stochastic optimization problems, finding stochastic Nash equilibria, and of composite stochastic bilevel problems where each level may require the solution of stochastic optimization problem or finding Nash equilibrium. Several complex examples with applications to water resources management, energy markets, pricing of services on social networks are provided. In the case of power system, regulator makes decision on the final expansion plan, considering the strategic behavior of regulated companies and coordinating the interests of different economic entities. Such a plan can be an equilibrium − a planned decision where a company cannot increase its expected gain unilaterally.
Principles Of Risk Analysis
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Author : Charles Yoe
language : en
Publisher: CRC Press
Release Date : 2016-04-19
Principles Of Risk Analysis written by Charles Yoe and has been published by CRC Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016-04-19 with Technology & Engineering categories.
In every decision context there are things we know and things we do not know. Risk analysis uses science and the best available evidence to assess what we know-and it is intentional in the way it addresses the importance of the things we don't know. Principles of Risk Analysis: Decision Making Under Uncertainty lays out the tasks of risk analysis i
Sequential Binary Investment Decisions
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Author : Werner Jammernegg
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2012-12-06
Sequential Binary Investment Decisions written by Werner Jammernegg and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-12-06 with Business & Economics categories.
This book describes some models from the theory of investment which are mainly characterized by three features. Firstly, the decision-maker acts in a dynamic environment. Secondly, the distributions of the random variables are only incompletely known at the beginning of the planning process. This is termed as decision-making under conditions of uncer tainty. Thirdly, in large parts of the work we restrict the analysis to binary decision models. In a binary model, the decision-maker must choose one of two actions. For example, one decision means to undertake the invest ·ment project in a planning period, whereas the other decision prescribes to postpone the project for at least one more period. The analysis of dynamic decision models under conditions of uncertainty is not a very common approach in economics. In this framework the op timal decisions are only obtained by the extensive use of methods from operations research and from statistics. It is the intention to narrow some of the existing gaps in the fields of investment and portfolio analysis in this respect. This is done by combining techniques that have been devel oped in investment theory and portfolio selection, in stochastic dynamic programming, and in Bayesian statistics. The latter field indicates the use of Bayes' theorem for the revision of the probability distributions of the random variables over time.
Principles Of Microeconomics
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Author : D. D. Tewari
language : en
Publisher: New Age International
Release Date : 2003
Principles Of Microeconomics written by D. D. Tewari and has been published by New Age International this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2003 with Microeconomics categories.
Microeconomics Is Taught In All Colleges And Universities Offering Degree Courses In Economics, Social Sciences, Business Administration And Management Studies All Over The World. There Are Many Good Text Books On Microeconomics Now Available In The Market. This Book Is Intended To Be A Valuable Addition To The Existing Repository Of Books On Principles Of Microeconomics. The Book Provides A Good Mixture Of Theory And Practice Of Microeconomics. Applications Of Various Principles Of Microeconomics Are Illustrated Using Both Real World As Well As Hypothetical Data. The Latest Developments In The Theories Of Demand And Supply, Production, Markets And So On Are Covered And Areas Of Their Potential Applications Explored.The Principles Are Enunciated First Using Simple Language, Then Illustrated With The Help Of Graphs And Diagrams And Occasionally Using Simple Mathematics To Derive Decision Rules. For Ready Reference Of The Readers, Three Appendices, One Each On Calculus, Linear Programming And Econometrics And A Glossary Of Technical Terms Are Also Included In The Book. The Book Will Prove To Be Useful As A Text Book For Post-Graduate Students Of Microeconomics And As One Of The Reference Books For Students Of Business Administration And Management Sciences. Teachers Of Microeconomics May Also Find It Useful As A Handy Reference Book.
A Robust Neutrosophic Modeling And Optimization Approach For Integrated Energy Food Water Security Nexus Management Under Uncertainty
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Author : Firoz Ahmad
language : en
Publisher: Infinite Study
Release Date :
A Robust Neutrosophic Modeling And Optimization Approach For Integrated Energy Food Water Security Nexus Management Under Uncertainty written by Firoz Ahmad and has been published by Infinite Study this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on with Mathematics categories.
Natural resources are a boon for human beings, and their conservation for future uses is indispensable. Most importantly, energy-food-water security (EFWS) nexus management is the utmost need of our time. An effective managerial policy for the current distribution and conservation to meet future demand is necessary and challenging. Thus, this paper investigates an interconnected and dynamic EFWS nexus optimization model by considering the socio-economic and environmental objectives with the optimal energy supply, electricity conversion, food production, water resources allocation, and CO2 emissions control in the multi-period time horizons. Due to real-life complexity, various parameters are taken as intuitionistic fuzzy numbers.
Research Challenges In Modeling And Simulation For Engineering Complex Systems
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Author : Richard Fujimoto
language : en
Publisher: Springer
Release Date : 2017-08-18
Research Challenges In Modeling And Simulation For Engineering Complex Systems written by Richard Fujimoto and has been published by Springer this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017-08-18 with Computers categories.
This illuminating text/reference presents a review of the key aspects of the modeling and simulation (M&S) life cycle, and examines the challenges of M&S in different application areas. The authoritative work offers valuable perspectives on the future of research in M&S, and its role in engineering complex systems. Topics and features: reviews the challenges of M&S for urban infrastructure, healthcare delivery, automated vehicle manufacturing, deep space missions, and acquisitions enterprise; outlines research issues relating to conceptual modeling, covering the development of explicit and unambiguous models, communication and decision-making, and architecture and services; considers key computational challenges in the execution of simulation models, in order to best exploit emerging computing platforms and technologies; examines efforts to understand and manage uncertainty inherent in M&S processes, and how these can be unified under a consistent theoretical and philosophical foundation; discusses the reuse of models and simulations to accelerate the simulation model development process. This thought-provoking volume offers important insights for all researchers involved in modeling and simulation across the full spectrum of disciplines and applications, defining a common research agenda to support the entire M&S research community.
Selected Water Resources Abstracts
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Author :
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1973
Selected Water Resources Abstracts written by and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1973 with Hydrology categories.
Mathematical Models For Handling Partial Knowledge In Artificial Intelligence
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Author : Giulianella Coletti
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2013-06-29
Mathematical Models For Handling Partial Knowledge In Artificial Intelligence written by Giulianella Coletti and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-06-29 with Mathematics categories.
Knowledge acquisition is one of the most important aspects influencing the quality of methods used in artificial intelligence and the reliability of expert systems. The various issues dealt with in this volume concern many different approaches to the handling of partial knowledge and to the ensuing methods for reasoning and decision making under uncertainty, as applied to problems in artificial intelligence. The volume is composed of the invited and contributed papers presented at the Workshop on Mathematical Models for Handling Partial Knowledge in Artificial Intelligence, held at the Ettore Majorana Center for Scientific Culture of Erice (Sicily, Italy) on June 19-25, 1994, in the framework of the International School of Mathematics "G.Stampacchia". It includes also a transcription of the roundtable held during the workshop to promote discussions on fundamental issues, since in the choice of invited speakers we have tried to maintain a balance between the various schools of knowl edge and uncertainty modeling. Choquet expected utility models are discussed in the paper by Alain Chateauneuf: they allow the separation of perception of uncertainty or risk from the valuation of outcomes, and can be of help in decision mak ing. Petr Hajek shows that reasoning in fuzzy logic may be put on a strict logical (formal) basis, so contributing to our understanding of what fuzzy logic is and what one is doing when applying fuzzy reasoning.