Polls Expectations And Elections
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Polls Expectations And Elections
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Author : Richard Craig
language : en
Publisher: Lexington Books
Release Date : 2014-11-13
Polls Expectations And Elections written by Richard Craig and has been published by Lexington Books this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014-11-13 with Social Science categories.
In modern American presidential campaigning, scholars and citizens have bemoaned the effects of electronic media on voters. Much has been written about the effects of television ads, media management, perceived bias, and other issues, yet one element of today’s media environment that most Americans would recognize has not been identified in the public mind: expectation setting. Journalists regularly tell audiences what actions candidates should take on the campaign trail, based solely on whether they’re leading or trailing in public opinion polls. Polls, Expectations, and Elections: TV News Making in U.S. Presidential Campaigns follows therise and proliferation of this phenomenon through a comprehensive content analysis of transcripts of CBS Evening News broadcasts during presidential election campaigns from 1968–2012. Richard Craig uses numerous examples from these transcripts to illustrate how television news has gone from simply reporting poll data to portraying it as nearly the only motivation for anything candidates do while campaigning. He argues that with the combination of heightened coverage of campaigns and the omnipresence of poll data, campaign coverage has largely become a day-to-day series of contests, with candidates portrayed as succeeding or failing each day to meet “expectations” of what the candidate at a given position in the polls should do on the campaign trail. Highlighting the change in news media and candidate coverage, Polls, Expectations, and Elections will appeal to scholars of media studies, political communication, and journalism.
The Pre Election Polls Of 1948
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Author : Frederick Mosteller
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1949
The Pre Election Polls Of 1948 written by Frederick Mosteller and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1949 with Politics, Practical categories.
Forecasting Elections
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Author : Michael S. Lewis-Beck
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1992
Forecasting Elections written by Michael S. Lewis-Beck and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1992 with Political Science categories.
All political scientists aim to explain politics. In addition to this goal, Michael Lewis-Beck and Tom Rice aim to forecast political events, specifically election results. In "Forecasting Elections" the authors systematically develop easy-to-understand models based on national economic and political measures to forecast eleciton results for the U.S. presidency, House of Representatives, Senate, governorships, and state legislatures. For comparative purposes, the more complex French electoral system is studied. In the final chapter the authors instruct readers on how to use the models to make their own forecasts of future elections. -- From publisher's description.
Election Polls The News Media And Democracy
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Author : Paul J. Lavrakas
language : en
Publisher: Qc Press
Release Date : 2000
Election Polls The News Media And Democracy written by Paul J. Lavrakas and has been published by Qc Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2000 with Language Arts & Disciplines categories.
This is an introduction to modern polling. Focusing primarily on the 1996 US presidential election campaign, scholars and media pollsters address such topics as political campaigns, elections, voting behaviour and public opinion, as well as the news media's role in elections and democracy.
Politics And Big Data
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Author : Andrea Ceron
language : en
Publisher: Taylor & Francis
Release Date : 2016-12-19
Politics And Big Data written by Andrea Ceron and has been published by Taylor & Francis this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016-12-19 with Political Science categories.
The importance of social media as a way to monitor an electoral campaign is well established. Day-by-day, hour-by-hour evaluation of the evolution of online ideas and opinion allows observers and scholars to monitor trends and momentum in public opinion well before traditional polls. However, there are difficulties in recording and analyzing often brief, unverified comments while the unequal age, gender, social and racial representation among social media users can produce inaccurate forecasts of final polls. Reviewing the different techniques employed using social media to nowcast and forecast elections, this book assesses its achievements and limitations while presenting a new technique of "sentiment analysis" to improve upon them. The authors carry out a meta-analysis of the existing literature to show the conditions under which social media-based electoral forecasts prove most accurate while new case studies from France, the United States and Italy demonstrate how much more accurate "sentiment analysis" can prove.
Unmasking Singapore S 2020 General Elections Covid 19 And The Evolving Political Landscape
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Author : Bilveer Singh
language : en
Publisher: World Scientific
Release Date : 2020-12-29
Unmasking Singapore S 2020 General Elections Covid 19 And The Evolving Political Landscape written by Bilveer Singh and has been published by World Scientific this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020-12-29 with Political Science categories.
On 10 July 2020, Singapore held its 18th general elections in history and the 13th since independence in 1965. The ruling People's Action Party (PAP) once again retained its supermajority by capturing 83 out of the 93 seats, controlling 89.2 percent of parliamentary seats. In spite of a changing social, political and economic landscape, Singapore is still very much identified as an illiberal democracy that has somehow thrived over the years.As the general elections was held during the COVID-19 pandemic, there were expectations that Singaporeans would overwhelmingly vote for the PAP government as the country was facing a serious crisis of a generation. The 'flight-to-safety' mode that some had expected in an election during a crisis, however, did not materialise. In the end, Singaporean voters decided to send a strong warning to the PAP that not all was well, with the opposition achieving its strongest gains since 1965, capturing 10 seats and an additional two Non-constituency Member of Parliament seats. The PAP's total votes dropped from 69.9 percent in 2015 to 61.2 percent in 2020. The rise of a credible opposition has also further strengthened Singaporeans' resolve to ensure that a fair-playing field exists in the political realm. With the highest voter turnout since independence, many have made it known that their voices mattered. The PAP also saw some cracks in its ranks, with some former cadre members and supporters being critical of the new fourth-generation team.Against this backdrop, this book hopes to address the following questions. What were the key issues in the general elections? Who were the main contenders in the polls? What accounted for the PAP's continued hold on power in Singapore? Why did the opposition perform much better than in the previous general elections? What are the main implications of the 2020 general elections results for the PAP, opposition and the broader society at large? How far have electoral issues shifted from 'bread and butter' concerns to much broader topics of social injustices and diversity of voices in parliament? What were some of the crucial talking points during this election? Last, but not least, how far did social media and internet campaigning determine the outcome of this election?
Strength In Numbers How Polls Work And Why We Need Them
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Author : G. Elliott Morris
language : en
Publisher: W. W. Norton & Company
Release Date : 2022-07-12
Strength In Numbers How Polls Work And Why We Need Them written by G. Elliott Morris and has been published by W. W. Norton & Company this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2022-07-12 with Political Science categories.
An insightful exploration of political polling and a bold defense of its crucial role in a modern democracy. Public opinion polling is the ultimate democratic process; it gives every person an equal voice in letting elected leaders know what they need and want. But in the eyes of the public, polls today are tarnished. Recent election forecasts have routinely missed the mark and media coverage of polls has focused solely on their ability to predict winners and losers. Polls deserve better. In Strength in Numbers, data journalist G. Elliott Morris argues that the larger purpose of political polls is to improve democracy, not just predict elections. Whether used by interest groups, the press, or politicians, polling serves as a pipeline from the governed to the government, giving citizens influence they would otherwise lack. No one who believes in democracy can afford to give up on polls; they should commit, instead, to understanding them better. In a vibrant history of polling, Morris takes readers from the first semblance of data-gathering in the ancient world through to the development of modern-day scientific polling. He explains how the internet and “big data” have solved many challenges in polling—and created others. He covers the rise of polling aggregation and methods of election forecasting, reveals how data can be distorted and misrepresented, and demystifies the real uncertainty of polling. Candidly acknowledging where polls have gone wrong in the past, Morris charts a path for the industry’s future where it can truly work for the people. Persuasively argued and deeply researched, Strength in Numbers is an essential guide to understanding and embracing one of the most important and overlooked democratic institutions in the United States.
Lost In A Gallup
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Author : W. Joseph Campbell
language : en
Publisher: Univ of California Press
Release Date : 2024-02-20
Lost In A Gallup written by W. Joseph Campbell and has been published by Univ of California Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2024-02-20 with Political Science categories.
This update of a lively, first-of-its-kind study of polling misfires and fiascoes in U.S. presidential campaigns takes up pollsters’ failure over the decades to offer accurate assessments of the most important of American elections. Lost in a Gallup tells the story of polling flops and failures in presidential elections since 1936. Polls do go bad, as outcomes in 2020, 2016, 2012, 2004, and 2000 all remind us. This updated edition includes a new chapter and conclusion that address the 2020 polling surprise and considers whether polls will get it right in 2024. As author W. Joseph Campbell discusses, polling misfires in presidential elections are not all alike. Pollsters have anticipated tight elections when landslides have occurred. They have pointed to the wrong winner in closer elections. Misleading state polls have thrown off expected national outcomes. Polling failure also can lead to media error. Journalists covering presidential races invariably take their lead from polls. When polls go bad, media narratives can be off-target as well. Lost in a Gallup encourages readers to treat election polls with healthy skepticism, recognizing that they could be wrong.
Understanding Elections Through Statistics
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Author : Ole J. Forsberg
language : en
Publisher: CRC Press
Release Date : 2020-11-02
Understanding Elections Through Statistics written by Ole J. Forsberg and has been published by CRC Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020-11-02 with Political Science categories.
Elections are random events. From individuals deciding whether to vote, to people deciding for whom to vote, to election authorities deciding what to count, the outcomes of competitive democratic elections are rarely known until election day...or beyond. Understanding Elections through Statistics: Polling, Prediction, and Testing explores this random phenomenon from two points of view: predicting the election outcome using opinion polls and testing the election outcome using government-reported data. Written for those with only a brief introduction to statistics, this book takes you on a statistical journey from how polls are taken to how they can—and should—be used to estimate current popular opinion. Once an understanding of the election process is built, we turn toward testing elections for evidence of unfairness. While holding elections has become the de facto proof of government legitimacy, those electoral processes may hide a dirty little secret of the government illicitly ensuring a favorable election outcome. This book includes these features designed to make your statistical journey more enjoyable: Vignettes of elections, including maps, to provide concrete bases for the material In-chapter cues to help one avoid the heavy math—or to focus on it End-of-chapter problems designed to review and extend that which was covered in the chapter Many opportunities to turn the power of the R statistical environment to the enclosed election data files, as well as to those you find interesting From these features, it is clear the audience for this book is quite diverse. This text provides mathematics for those interested in mathematics, but also offers detours for those who just want a good read and a deeper understanding of elections. Author Ole J. Forsberg holds PhDs in both political science and statistics. He currently teaches mathematics and statistics in the Department of Mathematics at Knox College in Galesburg, IL.
The Voter S Guide To Election Polls
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Author : Ph. D Michael W. Traugott
language : en
Publisher: Lulu.com
Release Date : 2016-11-04
The Voter S Guide To Election Polls written by Ph. D Michael W. Traugott and has been published by Lulu.com this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016-11-04 with categories.
Fifth Edition. For the sixth presidential election running, Michael W. Traugott and Paul J. Lavrakas team up to give voters everything they need to know about election polls. When it comes to polls, the stakes are high, which is why this edition has been revised to incorporate information on the latest technologies used for data collection and data analysis. In straightforward language, the authors answer questions such as: - How do political candidates and organizations use poll data? - How do news organizations collect and report poll data? - Why do pollsters use samples? - How do media organizations analyze polls? They also examine common problems and complaints about polls, such as the increasing use of "push polls"-a political telemarketing technique-and polls conducted on the Internet that attract a large number of respondents who may not be representative of the general public.