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Forecasting Elections

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Forecasting Elections

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Author : Michael S. Lewis-Beck
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1992

Forecasting Elections written by Michael S. Lewis-Beck and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1992 with Political Science categories.

All political scientists aim to explain politics. In addition to this goal, Michael Lewis-Beck and Tom Rice aim to forecast political events, specifically election results. In "Forecasting Elections" the authors systematically develop easy-to-understand models based on national economic and political measures to forecast eleciton results for the U.S. presidency, House of Representatives, Senate, governorships, and state legislatures. For comparative purposes, the more complex French electoral system is studied. In the final chapter the authors instruct readers on how to use the models to make their own forecasts of future elections. -- From publisher's description.

Politics And Big Data

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Author : Andrea Ceron
language : en
Publisher: Taylor & Francis
Release Date : 2016-12-19

Politics And Big Data written by Andrea Ceron and has been published by Taylor & Francis this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016-12-19 with Political Science categories.

The importance of social media as a way to monitor an electoral campaign is well established. Day-by-day, hour-by-hour evaluation of the evolution of online ideas and opinion allows observers and scholars to monitor trends and momentum in public opinion well before traditional polls. However, there are difficulties in recording and analyzing often brief, unverified comments while the unequal age, gender, social and racial representation among social media users can produce inaccurate forecasts of final polls. Reviewing the different techniques employed using social media to nowcast and forecast elections, this book assesses its achievements and limitations while presenting a new technique of "sentiment analysis" to improve upon them. The authors carry out a meta-analysis of the existing literature to show the conditions under which social media-based electoral forecasts prove most accurate while new case studies from France, the United States and Italy demonstrate how much more accurate "sentiment analysis" can prove.

Competing Approaches To Forecasting Elections

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Author : Andrew Leigh
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2006

Competing Approaches To Forecasting Elections written by Andrew Leigh and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2006 with Election forecasting categories.

We review the efficacy of three approaches to forecasting elections: econometric models that project outcomes on the basis of the state of the economy; public opinion polls; and election betting (prediction markets). We assess the efficacy of each in light of the 2004 Australian election. This election is particularly interesting both because of innovations in each forecasting technology, and also because the increased majority achieved by the Coalition surprised most pundits. While the evidence for economic voting has historically been weak for Australia, the 2004 election suggests an increasingly important role for these models. The performance of polls was quite uneven, and predictions both across pollsters, and through time, vary too much to be particularly useful. Betting markets provide an interesting contrast, and a slew of data from various betting agencies suggests a more reasonable degree of volatility, and useful forecasting performance both throughout the election cycle and across individual electorates.

Forecasting Presidential Elections

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Author : Steven J. Rosenstone
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1979

Forecasting Presidential Elections written by Steven J. Rosenstone and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1979 with categories.

Predicting Presidential Elections And Other Things Second Edition

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Author : Ray Fair
language : en
Publisher: Stanford University Press
Release Date : 2011-12-14

Predicting Presidential Elections And Other Things Second Edition written by Ray Fair and has been published by Stanford University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2011-12-14 with Business & Economics categories.

"It's the economy, stupid," as Democratic strategist James Carville would say. After many years of study, Ray C. Fair has found that the state of the economy has a dominant influence on national elections. Just in time for the 2012 presidential election, this new edition of his classic text, Predicting Presidential Elections and Other Things, provides us with a look into the likely future of our nation's political landscape—but Fair doesn't stop there. Fair puts other national issues under the microscope as well—including congressional elections, Federal Reserve behavior, and inflation. In addition he covers topics well beyond today's headlines, as the book takes on questions of more direct, personal interest such as wine quality, predicting football games, and aging effects in baseball. Which of your friends is most likely to have an extramarital affair? How important is class attendance for academic performance in college? How fast can you expect to run a race or perform some physical task at age 55, given your time at age 30? Read Predicting Presidential Elections and Other Things and find out! As Fair works his way through an incredibly broad range of questions and topics, he teaches and delights. The discussion that underlies each chapter topic moves from formulating theories about real world phenomena to lessons on how to analyze data, test theories, and make predictions. At the end of this book, readers will walk away with more than mere predictions. They will have learned a new approach to thinking about many age-old concerns in public and private life, and will have a myriad of fun facts to share.

Understanding Elections Through Statistics

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Author : Ole J. Forsberg
language : en
Publisher: CRC Press
Release Date : 2020-11-02

Understanding Elections Through Statistics written by Ole J. Forsberg and has been published by CRC Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020-11-02 with Political Science categories.

Elections are random events. From individuals deciding whether to vote, to people deciding for whom to vote, to election authorities deciding what to count, the outcomes of competitive democratic elections are rarely known until election day...or beyond. Understanding Elections through Statistics: Polling, Prediction, and Testing explores this random phenomenon from two points of view: predicting the election outcome using opinion polls and testing the election outcome using government-reported data. Written for those with only a brief introduction to statistics, this book takes you on a statistical journey from how polls are taken to how they can—and should—be used to estimate current popular opinion. Once an understanding of the election process is built, we turn toward testing elections for evidence of unfairness. While holding elections has become the de facto proof of government legitimacy, those electoral processes may hide a dirty little secret of the government illicitly ensuring a favorable election outcome. This book includes these features designed to make your statistical journey more enjoyable: Vignettes of elections, including maps, to provide concrete bases for the material In-chapter cues to help one avoid the heavy math—or to focus on it End-of-chapter problems designed to review and extend that which was covered in the chapter Many opportunities to turn the power of the R statistical environment to the enclosed election data files, as well as to those you find interesting From these features, it is clear the audience for this book is quite diverse. This text provides mathematics for those interested in mathematics, but also offers detours for those who just want a good read and a deeper understanding of elections. Author Ole J. Forsberg holds PhDs in both political science and statistics. He currently teaches mathematics and statistics in the Department of Mathematics at Knox College in Galesburg, IL.

Before The Vote

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Author : James E. Campbell
language : en
Publisher: SAGE Publications, Incorporated
Release Date : 2000

Before The Vote written by James E. Campbell and has been published by SAGE Publications, Incorporated this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2000 with Language Arts & Disciplines categories.

Over the last 50 years, the role of polling has taken on increasing prominence in the American electoral process. This book brings together some of the leading figures in political science to present their election forecasts, discuss their methodology and present their critiques of the forecasting enterprise. They consider whether ever more accurate models of predicting voting behaviour damage the political climate by making politicians increasingly enslaved by pollsters, and the effect on turnout when there is a broad consensus as to who the winner will be.