The Reliability Of Forecasting Elections
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The Reliability Of Forecasting Elections
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Author : Franklin Royalton Zeran
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1932
The Reliability Of Forecasting Elections written by Franklin Royalton Zeran and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1932 with categories.
Forecasting Elections
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Author : Michael S. Lewis-Beck
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1992
Forecasting Elections written by Michael S. Lewis-Beck and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1992 with Political Science categories.
All political scientists aim to explain politics. In addition to this goal, Michael Lewis-Beck and Tom Rice aim to forecast political events, specifically election results. In "Forecasting Elections" the authors systematically develop easy-to-understand models based on national economic and political measures to forecast eleciton results for the U.S. presidency, House of Representatives, Senate, governorships, and state legislatures. For comparative purposes, the more complex French electoral system is studied. In the final chapter the authors instruct readers on how to use the models to make their own forecasts of future elections. -- From publisher's description.
The Future Of Election Forecasting Using Social Media Based Methods Prospect Or Pitfall
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Author : Marla van Nieuwland
language : en
Publisher: GRIN Verlag
Release Date : 2015-11-24
The Future Of Election Forecasting Using Social Media Based Methods Prospect Or Pitfall written by Marla van Nieuwland and has been published by GRIN Verlag this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2015-11-24 with Language Arts & Disciplines categories.
Seminar paper from the year 2015 in the subject Communications - Media and Politics, Politic Communications, grade: 1,0, University of Constance, language: English, abstract: In 2013 Daniel Gayo-Avello captured the state of the art regarding election prediction with social media publishing a meta-analysis, the very first one in this field of study. Concluding after an extensive literature review, that the „prevailing view [among scientists] is overly optimistic“, Gayo-Avello declares three major problems, that have to be addressed by future research: 1) The need to produce a true forecast, that is published before the election. 2) The need to take into account the biases on Twitter, especially the unrepresentativeness of the sample. 3) The need to incorporate sentiment rather than just tweet volume. The research question of this paper is very similar to Gayo-Avello's meta-analysis, to give an overview of the current state of the art two years later, assess if the past problems and questions scientists raised have been discussed, and in the last step answer, whether or not Twitter can be used as an efficient alternative to traditional electoral forecasting. Although two years might not be a lot of time considering the time it takes for a study to be conducted and published, the number of scientists contributing to this fairly new field of research is extremely high, therefore making much more understanding in a short time possible. Necessarily I will only highlight a selection of studies, not being able to shed light on all studies. In a nutshell, I will take the 3 demands by Gayo-Avello as a guideline to order recent studies, then give a quick insight into the current discussion in the scientific field, and in the end come to the conclusion, that traditional polling and social media-based approaches do not have to be exclusive, but can and should be combined in future research.
Politics And Big Data
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Author : Andrea Ceron
language : en
Publisher: Routledge
Release Date : 2016-12-19
Politics And Big Data written by Andrea Ceron and has been published by Routledge this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016-12-19 with Political Science categories.
The importance of social media as a way to monitor an electoral campaign is well established. Day-by-day, hour-by-hour evaluation of the evolution of online ideas and opinion allows observers and scholars to monitor trends and momentum in public opinion well before traditional polls. However, there are difficulties in recording and analyzing often brief, unverified comments while the unequal age, gender, social and racial representation among social media users can produce inaccurate forecasts of final polls. Reviewing the different techniques employed using social media to nowcast and forecast elections, this book assesses its achievements and limitations while presenting a new technique of "sentiment analysis" to improve upon them. The authors carry out a meta-analysis of the existing literature to show the conditions under which social media-based electoral forecasts prove most accurate while new case studies from France, the United States and Italy demonstrate how much more accurate "sentiment analysis" can prove.
Predicting The Next President
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Author : Allan J. Lichtman
language : en
Publisher: Rowman & Littlefield
Release Date : 2024-07-01
Predicting The Next President written by Allan J. Lichtman and has been published by Rowman & Littlefield this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2024-07-01 with Political Science categories.
In the days after Donald Trump’s unexpected victory on election night 2016, The New York Times, CNN, and other leading media outlets reached out to one of the few pundits who had correctly predicted the outcome, Allan J. Lichtman. While many election forecasters base their findings exclusively on public opinion polls, Lichtman looks at the underlying fundamentals that have driven every presidential election since 1860. Using his 13 historical factors or “keys” (four political, seven performance, and two personality), Lichtman had been predicting Trump’s win since September 2016. In the updated 2024 edition, he applies the keys to every presidential election since 1860 and shows readers the current state of the 2024 race. In doing so, he dispels much of the mystery behind electoral politics and challenges many traditional assumptions. An indispensable resource for political junkies!
How To Predict Elections
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Author : Louis Hyman Bean
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2012-09-01
How To Predict Elections written by Louis Hyman Bean and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-09-01 with categories.
Understanding Elections Through Statistics
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Author : Ole J. Forsberg
language : en
Publisher: CRC Press
Release Date : 2020-11-02
Understanding Elections Through Statistics written by Ole J. Forsberg and has been published by CRC Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020-11-02 with Political Science categories.
Elections are random events. From individuals deciding whether to vote, to people deciding for whom to vote, to election authorities deciding what to count, the outcomes of competitive democratic elections are rarely known until election day...or beyond. Understanding Elections through Statistics: Polling, Prediction, and Testing explores this random phenomenon from two points of view: predicting the election outcome using opinion polls and testing the election outcome using government-reported data. Written for those with only a brief introduction to statistics, this book takes you on a statistical journey from how polls are taken to how they can—and should—be used to estimate current popular opinion. Once an understanding of the election process is built, we turn toward testing elections for evidence of unfairness. While holding elections has become the de facto proof of government legitimacy, those electoral processes may hide a dirty little secret of the government illicitly ensuring a favorable election outcome. This book includes these features designed to make your statistical journey more enjoyable: Vignettes of elections, including maps, to provide concrete bases for the material In-chapter cues to help one avoid the heavy math—or to focus on it End-of-chapter problems designed to review and extend that which was covered in the chapter Many opportunities to turn the power of the R statistical environment to the enclosed election data files, as well as to those you find interesting From these features, it is clear the audience for this book is quite diverse. This text provides mathematics for those interested in mathematics, but also offers detours for those who just want a good read and a deeper understanding of elections. Author Ole J. Forsberg holds PhDs in both political science and statistics. He currently teaches mathematics and statistics in the Department of Mathematics at Knox College in Galesburg, IL.
Brookings Big Ideas For America
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Author : Michael E. O'Hanlon
language : en
Publisher: Rowman & Littlefield
Release Date : 2017
Brookings Big Ideas For America written by Michael E. O'Hanlon and has been published by Rowman & Littlefield this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017 with Political Science categories.
As a new administration takes office, what are the biggest issues facing the country? The Brookings Institution offers answers to that question in this volume, which continues the Brookings tradition of providing each incoming administration with a nonpartisan analysis of the major domestic and foreign questions confronting America. On the domestic front, Brookings scholars tackle topics ranging from health care and improving economic opportunity to criminal justice reform, lawful hacking, and improving infrastructure. The alliance system, the relationship with China, nuclear weapons, terrorism, and the ongoing conflicts in Afghanistan and Syria among the foreign policies issues addressed. Throughout, Brookings scholars share their individual ideas on how best to address the agenda that awaits the new administration.
The 2016 Presidential Election
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Author : Amnon Cavari
language : en
Publisher: Lexington Books
Release Date : 2017-10-04
The 2016 Presidential Election written by Amnon Cavari and has been published by Lexington Books this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017-10-04 with Political Science categories.
The 2016 Presidential Election: The Causes and Consequences of a Political Earthquake critically analyzes the 2016 presidential election. The chapters in this book identify key factors behind the election of Donald J. Trump, explore the unconventional campaign, analyze the unexpected election result, evaluate the forecasting models, and speculate on the effect of the election outcome on politics and governance in the Trump Administration.
Analyzing The Social Web
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Author : Jennifer Golbeck
language : en
Publisher: Newnes
Release Date : 2013-02-17
Analyzing The Social Web written by Jennifer Golbeck and has been published by Newnes this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-02-17 with Computers categories.
Analyzing the Social Web provides a framework for the analysis of public data currently available and being generated by social networks and social media, like Facebook, Twitter, and Foursquare. Access and analysis of this public data about people and their connections to one another allows for new applications of traditional social network analysis techniques that let us identify things like who are the most important or influential people in a network, how things will spread through the network, and the nature of peoples' relationships. Analyzing the Social Web introduces you to these techniques, shows you their application to many different types of social media, and discusses how social media can be used as a tool for interacting with the online public. Presents interactive social applications on the web, and the types of analysis that are currently conducted in the study of social media Covers the basics of network structures for beginners, including measuring methods for describing nodes, edges, and parts of the network Discusses the major categories of social media applications or phenomena and shows how the techniques presented can be applied to analyze and understand the underlying data Provides an introduction to information visualization, particularly network visualization techniques, and methods for using them to identify interesting features in a network, generate hypotheses for analysis, and recognize patterns of behavior Includes a supporting website with lecture slides, exercises, and downloadable social network data sets that can be used can be used to apply the techniques presented in the book