Population Forecasting Methods
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State And Local Population Projections
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Author : Stanley K. Smith
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2005-12-21
State And Local Population Projections written by Stanley K. Smith and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2005-12-21 with Social Science categories.
The initial plans for this book sprang from a late-afternoon conversation in a hotel bar. All three authors were attending the 1996 meeting of the Population As- ciation of America in New Orleans. While nursing drinks and expounding on a variety of topics, we began talking about our current research projects. It so happened that all three of us had been entertaining the notion of writing a book on state and local population projections. Recognizing the enormity of the project for a single author, we quickly decided to collaborate. Had we not decided to work together, it is unlikely that this book ever would have been written. The last comprehensive treatment of state and local population projections was Don Pittenger’s excellent work Projecting State and Local Populations (1976). Many changes affecting the production of population projections have occurred since that time. Technological changes have led to vast increases in computing power, new data sources, the development of GIS, and the creation of the Internet. The procedures for applying a number of projection methods have changed considerably, and several completely new methods have been developed.
Population Forecasting Methods
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Author : Van Buren Stanbery
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1964
Population Forecasting Methods written by Van Buren Stanbery and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1964 with Population forecasting categories.
Population Forecasting 1895 1945
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Author : H.A. de Gans
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2012-12-06
Population Forecasting 1895 1945 written by H.A. de Gans and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-12-06 with Social Science categories.
Authors, scholars and scientists whose mother tongue is not one of the major languages of international communication are seriously disadvantaged. Some individuals, such as Joseph Conrad or Vladimir Nabokov, have overcome that handicap brilliantly. Others learn to live with it: they can express themselves sufficiently lucidly in a second language to make their voice heard internation ally. At least when they have something original or striking to say they will be certain to reach their peers. Most scientists and scholars fall into that category. Others, again, have to wait until their work has been translated before its value is recognised. This may apply even to those whose mother tongue is widely read. The writings of Frenchmen Lyotard, Derrida, Baudrillard or Foucault on post-modernism, on language, discourse and power, for example, had tremendous world-wide impact only after English translations appeared on the market. De Gans' study of the development of population forecasting in The Nether lands is another striking illustration of the effects a language barrier may have. He demonstrates convincingly that although a -possibly some what awkward Dutchman named Wiebols, was a pioneer of modern cohort component demo graphic forecasting, he never received international recognition for this. In his thesis of 1925 Wiebols employed the newest instruments of demographic analysis in improving forecasting methodology.
Population Dynamics And Projection Methods
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Author : John Stillwell
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2011-02-15
Population Dynamics And Projection Methods written by John Stillwell and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2011-02-15 with Social Science categories.
Although the human population growth rate of the world has been declining since peaking in the early 1960s, the populations of individual countries are changing at different rates. Population dynamics at national level are partly determined by levels of fertility and mortality, but the impact of international migration is playing an increasingly important role. Moreover, internal migration plays a major part in population change at the sub-national level. This fourth volume in the series “Understanding Population Trends and Processes” is a celebration of the work of Professor Philip Rees. It contains chapters by contributors who have collaborated with Phil Rees on research or consultancy projects or as postgraduate students. Several chapters demonstrate the technical nature of population projection modelling and simulation methods while others illustrate issues relating to data availability and estimation. This book demonstrates the application of theoretical and modelling methods and addresses key issues relating to contemporary demographic patterns and trends.
Forecasting Principles And Practice
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Author : Rob J Hyndman
language : en
Publisher: OTexts
Release Date : 2018-05-08
Forecasting Principles And Practice written by Rob J Hyndman and has been published by OTexts this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018-05-08 with Business & Economics categories.
Forecasting is required in many situations. Stocking an inventory may require forecasts of demand months in advance. Telecommunication routing requires traffic forecasts a few minutes ahead. Whatever the circumstances or time horizons involved, forecasting is an important aid in effective and efficient planning. This textbook provides a comprehensive introduction to forecasting methods and presents enough information about each method for readers to use them sensibly.
Accuracy Of Population Projection Methods At The U S Census Bureau
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Author :
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1987*
Accuracy Of Population Projection Methods At The U S Census Bureau written by and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1987* with categories.
Demographic Projection Techniques For Regions And Smaller Areas
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Author : H. Craig Davis
language : en
Publisher: UBC Press
Release Date : 1995
Demographic Projection Techniques For Regions And Smaller Areas written by H. Craig Davis and has been published by UBC Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1995 with Political Science categories.
In Chapter 3, the author outlines a four-step projection procedure which is used throughout the remainder of the book. Chapter 4 describes how to project population size by comparing the growth pattern of the population under study with that of another population. The next chapter covers one of the most commonly employed techniques of population projection - the cohort-survival model, which is used not only to project the size of a population but also its composition in terms of age and sex groupings. The final chapter focuses on migration, generally the most volatile component of the basic demographic equation. Primarily written for courses in planning, this book is also useful for anyone having to make decisions affected by population trends, whether they involve planning for future growth or alerting local decisionmakers to external uncertainties that could have a serious impact on the future of their community.
Principles Of Forecasting
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Author : J.S. Armstrong
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2001
Principles Of Forecasting written by J.S. Armstrong and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2001 with Business & Economics categories.
This handbook summarises knowledge from experts and empirical studies. It provides guidelines that can be applied in fields such as economics, sociology, and psychology. Includes a comprehensive forecasting dictionary.
Better Population Forecasting For Areas And Communities
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Author : Henry Van Beuren Stanbery
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1952
Better Population Forecasting For Areas And Communities written by Henry Van Beuren Stanbery and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1952 with Population forecasting categories.
A Practitioner S Guide To State And Local Population Projections
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Author : Stanley K. Smith
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2013-12-16
A Practitioner S Guide To State And Local Population Projections written by Stanley K. Smith and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-12-16 with Social Science categories.
This book focuses on the methodology and analysis of state and local population projections. It describes the most commonly used data sources and application techniques for four types of projection methods: cohort-component, trend extrapolation, structural models, and microsimulation. It covers the components of population growth, sources of data, the formation of assumptions, the development of evaluation criteria, and the determinants of forecast accuracy. It considers the strengths and weaknesses of various projection methods and pays special attention to the unique problems that characterize small-area projections. The authors provide practical guidance to demographers, planners, market analysts, and others called on to construct state and local population projections. They use many examples and illustrations and present suggestions for dealing with special populations, unique circumstances, and inadequate or unreliable data. They describe techniques for controlling one set of projections to another, for interpolating between time points, for sub-dividing age groups, and for constructing projections of population-related variables (e.g., school enrollment, households). They discuss the role of judgment and the importance of the political context in which projections are made. They emphasize the “utility” of projections, or their usefulness for decision making in a world of competing demands and limited resources. This comprehensive book will provide readers with an understanding not only of the mechanics of the most commonly used population projection methods, but also of the many complex issues affecting their construction, interpretation, evaluation, and use.