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Potential Output Growth In Emerging Market Countries

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Potential Output Growth In Emerging Market Countries

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Author : Mr.Jorge Roldos
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 1997-09-01

Potential Output Growth In Emerging Market Countries written by Mr.Jorge Roldos and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1997-09-01 with Business & Economics categories.

This paper estimates potential output and the sources of growth in Chile during 1970-96. Actual output is cointegrated with the quality-adjusted measures of capital and labor, and constant returns to scale cannot be rejected. The estimates of potential output show a positive output gap in the years when the Chilean economy was deemed to be overheated. In 1986-90, the quality-adjusted labor variable explains close to 60 percent of the growth rate of GDP, while during 1991-95 capital formation plays a dominant role. The contribution of TFP growth in Chile is relatively small, but, based on a comparison with European and East Asian experiences, it is expected to increase in the medium term.

Potential Output Growth In Emerging Market Countries

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Author : Jorge E. Roldos
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2006

Potential Output Growth In Emerging Market Countries written by Jorge E. Roldos and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2006 with categories.

Falling Long Term Growth Prospects

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Author : M. Ayhan Kose
language : en
Publisher: World Bank Publications
Release Date : 2024-03-06

Falling Long Term Growth Prospects written by M. Ayhan Kose and has been published by World Bank Publications this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2024-03-06 with Business & Economics categories.

A structural growth slowdown is under way across the world: at current trends, the global rate of potential growth is expected to fall to a three-decade low over the remainder of the 2020s. Nearly all the forces that have powered growth and prosperity since the early 1990s have weakened. In addition, a series of shocks has affected the global economy over the past three years. A persistent and broad-based decline in long-term growth prospects imperils the ability of emerging market and developing economies to combat poverty, tackle climate change, and meet other key development objectives. The challenges presented by this potential inability call for an ambitious policy response at the national and global levels. This book presents the first detailed analysis of the growth slowdown and a rich menu of policy options to deliver better growth outcomes. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- This book presents a sobering analysis of the secular growth slowdown based on the most comprehensive database of potential growth estimates available to date. With nearly all the forces that have driven growth and prosperity in recent decades now weakened, the book argues that a prolonged period of weakness is under way, with serious implications for emerging market and developing economies. The authors call for bold policy actions at both the national and global levels to lift growth prospects. The book is essential reading for policy makers, economists, and anyone concerned about the future of the global economy. Beatrice Weder di Mauro Professor of International Economics, Geneva Graduate Institute, and President of the Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR) Economic policy making is becoming increasingly complicated in the 2020s. In addition to tackling traditional trade-offs in aggregate demand management and improving efficiency on the supply side, policy makers need to address new priorities and challenges, from addressing climate change and its impacts to improving income distribution, all in the context of lower growth rates, waning productivity growth, and flattening of the globalization process that has brought unprecedented prosperity across the globe and lifted more than a billion people out of poverty. In Falling Long-Term Growth Prospects, the authors do a phenomenal job of assessing these trends at the global and regional levels, identifying and unpacking salient twenty-first-century policy challenges, and providing thoughtful and evidence-based policy prescriptions for leaders in advanced, emerging market, and developing economies. Importantly, the book underscores that these challenges tend to be global and, hence, global cooperation at all levels is necessary to achieve optimal results. Alas, we seem to be going in the opposite direction; this book offers a road map to put us back on the path to creating a more integrated, prosperous, and equitable global community. Michael G. Plummer Director, SAIS Europe and ENI Professor of International Economics, The Johns Hopkins University

Anchoring Growth

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Author : Ms.Era Dabla-Norris
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2013-09-24

Anchoring Growth written by Ms.Era Dabla-Norris and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-09-24 with Business & Economics categories.

Fostering and sustaining robust economic growth is an imperative across advanced, emerging, and low-income countries alike. Countries will need to focus on supply-side reforms to raise their potential output and anchor medium-term growth prospects. This SDN will emphasize the role of structural reforms and supportive policy and institutional frameworks for boosting productivity–a key engine of economic growth–in the wake of the crisis. By examining a broad spectrum of reforms that eliminate impediments to growth, the paper will seek to highlight a differentiated policy agenda across countries.

Anchoring Growth

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Author : Ms.Era Dabla-Norris
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2013-09-24

Do Recessions Affect Potential Output

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Author : Jane Haltmaier
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2013-05-12

Do Recessions Affect Potential Output written by Jane Haltmaier and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-05-12 with Business & Economics categories.

A number of studies have looked at the effect of financial crises on actual output several years beyond the crisis. This study examines whether the growth of potential output also is affected by recessions, whether or not they include financial crises. Trend per capita output growth is calculated using HP filters, and average growth is compared for the two years preceding a recession, the two years immediately following a recession peak, and the two years after that. Panel regressions are run to determine whether characteristics of recessions, including depth, length, extent to which they are synchronized across countries, and whether or not they include a financial crisis, can explain the cumulative four-year loss in the level of potential output following an output peak preceding a recession. The main result is that the depth of a recession has a significant effect on the loss of potential for advanced countries, while the length is important for emerging markets. These results imply that the Great Recession might have resulted in declines in trend output growth averaging about 3% for the advanced economies, but appear to have had little effect on emerging market trend growth. Figures and tables. This is a print on demand report.

Emerging Markets In Transition

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Author : Mr.Luis M. Cubeddu
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2014-06-12

Emerging Markets In Transition written by Mr.Luis M. Cubeddu and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014-06-12 with Business & Economics categories.

After a short-lived slowdown in the immediate aftermath of the global financial crisis and a swift rebound, emerging markets (EM) are now entering a period of slower growth. In fact, growth is now lower than the post-crisis peak of 2010-11, as well as the rates seen in the decade before the crisis. This raises the question of whether EMs can bounce back to the growth rates seen in the last decade or whether their prospects are dimmer than thought a few years ago. This SDN we will explore the drivers of the slowdown, how changes in external conditions that supported high growth in EMs will affect them over the medium term, and the policy priorities needed to sustain the growth rates seen in the past decades. In doing so, the paper differentiates EMs along various dimensions (e.g. degree of commodity dependence, trade and financial openness) to highlight the need to tailor policy priorities.

Slowdown In Emerging Markets

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Author : Ms.Evridiki Tsounta
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2014-11-14

Slowdown In Emerging Markets written by Ms.Evridiki Tsounta and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014-11-14 with Business & Economics categories.

Following very strong growth during the period 2000–12, emerging market economies (EMEs) experienced a slowdown in the last couple of years. This paper examines the supply-side drivers of the strong growth performance of 63 EMEs and investigates if the recent slowdown in growth is transitory or a more permanent phenomenon. We find that on average the recent slowdown is explained equally by structural and cyclical factors, although there are large variations across countries and regions. While the cyclical component of the slowdown can be corrected by countercyclical policies (provided that there is sufficient policy space), structural bottlenecks are harder to address. Given the expected moderation of capital accumulation and some natural constraints on labor, the strong growth momentum of 2000–12 is unlikely to be repeated going forward, unless TFP performance improves significantly via structural reforms.

Potential Growth In Emerging Asia

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Author : Rahul Anand
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2014-01-13

Potential Growth In Emerging Asia written by Rahul Anand and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014-01-13 with Business & Economics categories.

Using three distinct approaches—statistical filtering, production function, and multivariate model— this paper estimates potential growth for China, India, and five ASEAN countries (Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam) during 1993–2013. The main findings include: (i) both China and India have recently exhibited a slowdown in potential growth, largely reflecting a decline of total factor productivity (TFP) growth; (ii) by contrast, trend growth for the five ASEAN countries has been rather stable and might even have increased marginally, with the notable exception of Vietnam;(iii) over the longer term, demographic factors will be much more supportive in India and some ASEAN economies than in China, where working-age population should start shrinking, with the overall dependency ratio climbing by the end of this decade. Improving or sustaining potential growth calls for broad structural reforms.

Growth Surprises And Synchronized Slowdowns In Emerging Markets An Empirical Investigation

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Author : Ms.Ghada Fayad
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2014-09-17

Growth Surprises And Synchronized Slowdowns In Emerging Markets An Empirical Investigation written by Ms.Ghada Fayad and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014-09-17 with Business & Economics categories.

Output growth has slowed in several emerging markets since 2011—a remarkable feature for a non-crisis period in EMs. Such synchronized slowdowns were largely unanticipated by scholars and forecasters alike. In this paper we attempt to shed light on the main drivers of growth surprises and synchronized slowdowns in emerging markets post-global financial crisis. We find that lower trading partner demand was a key external factor in explaining these events during 2011–13, and that changes in external financing conditions have yet to play a role in EMs’ growth. On the domestic front, the withdrawal of the fiscal stimulus put in place right after the Lehman collapse is a relevant aspect in these episodes, compounding the effect of the weaker external demand. Idiosyncratic factors, such as structural bottlenecks with the potential to impair growth in a more lasting fashion, also seem to partly explain these events, as reflected in the larger residuals found in regression-based estimates for certain countries.

Potential Output Growth In Emerging Market Countries

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