Slowdown In Emerging Markets
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Slowdown In Emerging Markets
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Author : Ms.Evridiki Tsounta
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2014-11-14
Slowdown In Emerging Markets written by Ms.Evridiki Tsounta and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014-11-14 with Business & Economics categories.
Following very strong growth during the period 2000–12, emerging market economies (EMEs) experienced a slowdown in the last couple of years. This paper examines the supply-side drivers of the strong growth performance of 63 EMEs and investigates if the recent slowdown in growth is transitory or a more permanent phenomenon. We find that on average the recent slowdown is explained equally by structural and cyclical factors, although there are large variations across countries and regions. While the cyclical component of the slowdown can be corrected by countercyclical policies (provided that there is sufficient policy space), structural bottlenecks are harder to address. Given the expected moderation of capital accumulation and some natural constraints on labor, the strong growth momentum of 2000–12 is unlikely to be repeated going forward, unless TFP performance improves significantly via structural reforms.
Growth Surprises And Synchronized Slowdowns In Emerging Markets An Empirical Investigation
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Author : Ms.Ghada Fayad
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2014-09-17
Growth Surprises And Synchronized Slowdowns In Emerging Markets An Empirical Investigation written by Ms.Ghada Fayad and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014-09-17 with Business & Economics categories.
Output growth has slowed in several emerging markets since 2011—a remarkable feature for a non-crisis period in EMs. Such synchronized slowdowns were largely unanticipated by scholars and forecasters alike. In this paper we attempt to shed light on the main drivers of growth surprises and synchronized slowdowns in emerging markets post-global financial crisis. We find that lower trading partner demand was a key external factor in explaining these events during 2011–13, and that changes in external financing conditions have yet to play a role in EMs’ growth. On the domestic front, the withdrawal of the fiscal stimulus put in place right after the Lehman collapse is a relevant aspect in these episodes, compounding the effect of the weaker external demand. Idiosyncratic factors, such as structural bottlenecks with the potential to impair growth in a more lasting fashion, also seem to partly explain these events, as reflected in the larger residuals found in regression-based estimates for certain countries.
Emerging Markets In Transition
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Author : Mr.Luis M. Cubeddu
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2014-06-12
Emerging Markets In Transition written by Mr.Luis M. Cubeddu and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014-06-12 with Business & Economics categories.
After a short-lived slowdown in the immediate aftermath of the global financial crisis and a swift rebound, emerging markets (EM) are now entering a period of slower growth. In fact, growth is now lower than the post-crisis peak of 2010-11, as well as the rates seen in the decade before the crisis. This raises the question of whether EMs can bounce back to the growth rates seen in the last decade or whether their prospects are dimmer than thought a few years ago. This SDN we will explore the drivers of the slowdown, how changes in external conditions that supported high growth in EMs will affect them over the medium term, and the policy priorities needed to sustain the growth rates seen in the past decades. In doing so, the paper differentiates EMs along various dimensions (e.g. degree of commodity dependence, trade and financial openness) to highlight the need to tailor policy priorities.
Emerging Markets
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Author : Eswar S. Prasad
language : en
Publisher: Rowman & Littlefield
Release Date : 2011-02-01
Emerging Markets written by Eswar S. Prasad and has been published by Rowman & Littlefield this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2011-02-01 with Business & Economics categories.
Emerging market economies (EMEs) have become the darlings of international investors and the focus of enormous attention in academic, media, and policy circles. M. Ayhan Kose and Eswar Prasad present the definitive account of the evolution of EMEs and use the lens of the global financial crisis to evaluate their strengths and weaknesses. Led by a set of large and dynamic countries—including Brazil, China, India, and Russia—EMEs have become a dominant presence in the world economy. They now account for a substantial share of world output and have been a major driver of global growth during the past decade. They are significant players in international trade and financial flows and are beginning to exert rising clout in global policy debates. However, the financial crisis of 2007–09 and the worldwide recession that followed cast a pall over the notion that EMEs had become self-reliant and "decoupled" from demand conditions in and financial flows from advanced countries. Kose and Prasad, prominent experts on emerging market economies and globalization, draw on their extensive research to assess the resilience of EMEs in the face of the global financial crisis. Their analysis shows that EMEs, as a group, weathered the crisis much better than the advanced countries, and most of these economies have bounced back rapidly from the global recession. The authors track down the reasons for this resilience and explain why some countries in this group have done better than others. Based on this analysis, they draw lessons for the durability and sustainability of these economies' long-term growth. This book is important reading for anyone trying to anticipate the future growth of emerging markets or contemplating business opportunities in these economies.
The Slowdown In Global Trade A Symptom Of A Weak Recovery
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Author : Aqib Aslam
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2017-11-15
The Slowdown In Global Trade A Symptom Of A Weak Recovery written by Aqib Aslam and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017-11-15 with Business & Economics categories.
Global trade growth has slowed since 2012 relative both to its strong historical performance and to overall economic growth. This paper aims to quantify the role of weak economic growth and changes in its decomposition in accounting for the slowdown in trade using a reduced form and a structural approach. Both analytical investigations suggest that the overall weakness in economic activity, particularly investment, has been the primary restraint on trade growth, accounting for over 80 percent of the decline in the growth of the volume of goods trade between 2012–16 and 2003–07. However, other factors are also weighing on trade in recent years, especially in emerging market and developing economies, as evidenced by the non-negligible role attributed to trade costs by the structural approach.
World Economic Outlook April 2019
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Author : International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2019-04-09
World Economic Outlook April 2019 written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019-04-09 with Business & Economics categories.
After strong growth in 2017 and early 2018, global economic activity slowed notably in the second half of last year, reflecting a confluence of factors affecting major economies. China’s growth declined following a combination of needed regulatory tightening to rein in shadow banking and an increase in trade tensions with the United States. The euro area economy lost more momentum than expected as consumer and business confidence weakened and car production in Germany was disrupted by the introduction of new emission standards; investment dropped in Italy as sovereign spreads widened; and external demand, especially from emerging Asia, softened. Elsewhere, natural disasters hurt activity in Japan. Trade tensions increasingly took a toll on business confidence and, so, financial market sentiment worsened, with financial conditions tightening for vulnerable emerging markets in the spring of 2018 and then in advanced economies later in the year, weighing on global demand. Conditions have eased in 2019 as the US Federal Reserve signaled a more accommodative monetary policy stance and markets became more optimistic about a US–China trade deal, but they remain slightly more restrictive than in the fall.
World Economic Outlook April 2019
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Author : International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
language : zh-CN
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2019-04-09
World Economic Outlook April 2019 written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019-04-09 with Political Science categories.
After strong growth in 2017 and early 2018, global economic activity slowed notably in the second half of last year, reflecting a confluence of factors affecting major economies. China’s growth declined following a combination of needed regulatory tightening to rein in shadow banking and an increase in trade tensions with the United States. The euro area economy lost more momentum than expected as consumer and business confidence weakened and car production in Germany was disrupted by the introduction of new emission standards; investment dropped in Italy as sovereign spreads widened; and external demand, especially from emerging Asia, softened. Elsewhere, natural disasters hurt activity in Japan. Trade tensions increasingly took a toll on business confidence and, so, financial market sentiment worsened, with financial conditions tightening for vulnerable emerging markets in the spring of 2018 and then in advanced economies later in the year, weighing on global demand. Conditions have eased in 2019 as the US Federal Reserve signaled a more accommodative monetary policy stance and markets became more optimistic about a US–China trade deal, but they remain slightly more restrictive than in the fall.
The Global Trade Slowdown And Its Implications For Emerging Asia
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Author : Board of Governors of the Federal Reserv
language : en
Publisher: Createspace Independent Publishing Platform
Release Date : 2016-11-18
The Global Trade Slowdown And Its Implications For Emerging Asia written by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserv and has been published by Createspace Independent Publishing Platform this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016-11-18 with categories.
The global economy is at a critical juncture today. According to the International Monetary Fund's latest World Economic Outlook, global gross domestic product (GDP) is set to grow at only 3.1 percent this year, the lowest rate of growth since the Global Financial Crisis. Investment and productivity remain subdued, despite extremely low and even negative interest rates in many economies. One key aspect of global weakness that is of particular relevance to emerging Asian economies is the sharp slowdown in global trade. This slowdown represents a notable departure from the "normal" times of the past few decades, and is the subject of my remarks today.
Spillover Implications Of China S Slowdown For International Trade
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Author : Patrick Blagrave
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2016-09-27
Spillover Implications Of China S Slowdown For International Trade written by Patrick Blagrave and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016-09-27 with Business & Economics categories.
Using a panel vector autoregression and a novel measure of export-intensity-adjusted final demand, this note studies spillovers from China’s economic transition on export growth in 46 advanced and emerging market economies. The analysis suggests that a 1 percentage point shock to China’s final demand growth reduces the average country’s export growth by 0.1–0.2 percentage point. The impact is largest in Emerging Asia, where an export-growth-accounting exercise suggests that China’s economic transition has reduced average export growth rates by 1 percentage point since early 2014. Other countries linked to China’s manufacturing sector, as well as commodity exporters, are also significantly affected. This suggests that trading partners need to adjust to an environment of weaker external demand as China completes its transition to a more sustainable growth model.
World Economic Outlook April 2016
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Author : International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2016-04-12
World Economic Outlook April 2016 written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016-04-12 with Business & Economics categories.
Major macroeconomic realignments are affecting prospects differentially across the world’s countries and regions. The April 2016 WEO examines the causes and implications of these realignments—including the slowdown and rebalancing in China, a further decline in commodity prices, a related slowdown in investment and trade, and declining capital flows to emerging market and developing economies—which are generating substantial uncertainty and affecting the outlook for the global economy. Additionally, analytical chapters examine the slowdown in capital flows to emerging market economies since their 2010 peak—its main characteristics, how it compares with past slowdowns, the factors that are driving it, and whether exchange rate flexibility has changed the dynamics of the capital inflow cycle—and assess whether product and labor market reforms can improve the economic outlook in advanced economies, looking at the recent evolution and scope for further reform, the channels through which reforms affect economic activity under strong versus weak economic conditions, reforms’ short- to medium-term macroeconomic effects, and sequencing of reforms and coordination with other policies to maximize their potential quantitative economic benefits. A special feature analyzes in depth the energy transition in an era of low fossil fuel prices.