Principles And Techniques For Prediction
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Forecasting Principles And Practice
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Author : Rob J Hyndman
language : en
Publisher: OTexts
Release Date : 2018-05-08
Forecasting Principles And Practice written by Rob J Hyndman and has been published by OTexts this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018-05-08 with Business & Economics categories.
Forecasting is required in many situations. Stocking an inventory may require forecasts of demand months in advance. Telecommunication routing requires traffic forecasts a few minutes ahead. Whatever the circumstances or time horizons involved, forecasting is an important aid in effective and efficient planning. This textbook provides a comprehensive introduction to forecasting methods and presents enough information about each method for readers to use them sensibly.
Principles And Techniques Of Predicting Future Demand For Urban Area Transportation
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Author : Brian V. Martin
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1961
Principles And Techniques Of Predicting Future Demand For Urban Area Transportation written by Brian V. Martin and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1961 with Traffic estimation categories.
Principles And Techniques For Prediction
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Author : R. S. Chillar
language : en
Publisher: Createspace Independent Publishing Platform
Release Date : 2017-01-29
Principles And Techniques For Prediction written by R. S. Chillar and has been published by Createspace Independent Publishing Platform this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017-01-29 with categories.
Since the beginning of the historical age, evidenced by cave arts, ancient scriptures, popular myths, customs and study of ruins and monuments, humans have shown an intense desire to peek into the "non evident" universe. Mere acknowledgement of this fact compels us to agree that we as species have a strong intuitive agreement to the concept of existence of a parallel universe or another dimension not perceived through normal senses clouded by overindulgence and overinvestment in learning and practicing survival skills of the physical world. Whether backed by the results of a "double blind, placebo controlled, randomised studies," a hallmark of the objective modern sciences, or not, human brain is wired and tempted to believe on the faintest and the earliest sign of the existence of the so called supernatural. Quantum of Likes and views of videos on youtube tagged with "Supernatural" are a self explanatory proof of this. Authors are of the opinion that supernatural exists and flourishes only and ONLY in ignorance. More you seek, less is miraculous and supernatural around you. Astrology is one such logical way to dispel the cloud of supernatural from consciousness. Astrological sciences, developed by different civilizations and societies have many things in common. Apart from stellar positions and zodiac signs and houses, relying on objectivity has been one of the most important variables to predict accuracy of a system. Jyotish or Hindu system of Astrology, too depends upon such mathematical calculations, though many astrologers boast of an intuitive or "gut feeling" of an event in the life of someone being discussed. However, they fail to understand that such feeling can't come without a sincere hard work of years together on understanding and practicing a system. Then such intuition is not sixth sense, but a result end of background calculations done by the developed subconscious which both client and the astrologer are not aware of. The present book is attempted to present such principles and techniques to an inquisitive reader or a beginner in the field of the divine science, astrology. Although the dogma of astrology does not allow us to go beyond such principles, but I am sure, readers will be tempted to experiment with their automatic founded principles, they will develop easily after a practice of a couple of months with such established principles. Authors don't find any harm in doing so, as the real knowledge comes not only by cramming and following the fixed principles, but in experimenting with something which only comes as a subjective conclusion in a researcher's conscious mind.
Principles Of Forecasting
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Author : J.S. Armstrong
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2001-05-31
Principles Of Forecasting written by J.S. Armstrong and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2001-05-31 with Business & Economics categories.
Principles of Forecasting: A Handbook for Researchers and Practitioners summarizes knowledge from experts and from empirical studies. It provides guidelines that can be applied in fields such as economics, sociology, and psychology. It applies to problems such as those in finance (How much is this company worth?), marketing (Will a new product be successful?), personnel (How can we identify the best job candidates?), and production (What level of inventories should be kept?). The book is edited by Professor J. Scott Armstrong of the Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania. Contributions were written by 40 leading experts in forecasting, and the 30 chapters cover all types of forecasting methods. There are judgmental methods such as Delphi, role-playing, and intentions studies. Quantitative methods include econometric methods, expert systems, and extrapolation. Some methods, such as conjoint analysis, analogies, and rule-based forecasting, integrate quantitative and judgmental procedures. In each area, the authors identify what is known in the form of `if-then principles', and they summarize evidence on these principles. The project, developed over a four-year period, represents the first book to summarize all that is known about forecasting and to present it so that it can be used by researchers and practitioners. To ensure that the principles are correct, the authors reviewed one another's papers. In addition, external reviews were provided by more than 120 experts, some of whom reviewed many of the papers. The book includes the first comprehensive forecasting dictionary.
Advanced Video Coding Principles And Techniques
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Author : K.N. Ngan
language : en
Publisher: Elsevier
Release Date : 1999-08-31
Advanced Video Coding Principles And Techniques written by K.N. Ngan and has been published by Elsevier this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1999-08-31 with Computers categories.
In recent years, the paradigm of video coding has shifted from that of a frame-based approach to a content-based approach, particularly with the finalization of the ISO multimedia coding standard, MPEG-4. MPEG-4 is the emerging standard for the coding of multimedia content. It defines a syntax for a set of content-based functionalities, namely, content-based interactivity, compression and universal access. However, it does not specify how the video content is to be generated. To generate the video content, video has to be segmented into video objects and tracked as they transverse across the video frames. This book addresses the difficult problem of video segmentation, and the extraction and tracking of video object planes as defined in MPEG-4. It then focuses on the specific issue of face segmentation and coding as applied to videoconferencing in order to improve the quality of videoconferencing images especially in the facial region. Modal-based coding is a content-based coding technique used to code synthetic objects that have become an important part of video content. It results in extremely low bit rates because only the parameters needed to represent the modal are transmitted. Model-based coding is included to provide background information for the synthetic object coding in MPEG-4. Lastly, MPEG-4, the first coding standard for multimedia content is described in detail. The topics covered include the coding of audio objects, the coding of natural and synthetic video objects, and error resilience. Advanced Video Coding is one of the first books on content-based coding and MPEG-4 coding standard. It serves as an excellent information source and reference for both researchers and practicing engineers.
Principles Of Business Forecasting 2nd Ed
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Author : Keith Ord
language : en
Publisher: Wessex, Incorporated
Release Date : 2017-06
Principles Of Business Forecasting 2nd Ed written by Keith Ord and has been published by Wessex, Incorporated this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017-06 with Business forecasting categories.
This second edition of Principles of Business Forecasting by Keith Ord, Robert Fildes, and newest author Nikolaos Kourentzes serves as both a textbook for students and as a reference book for experienced forecasters in a variety of fields. The authors' motivation for writing this book, is to give users the tools and insight to make the most effective forecasts drawing on the latest research ideas, without being overly technical. The book is unique in its design, providing an introduction to both standard and advanced forecasting methods, as well as a focus on general principles to guide and simplify forecasting practice for those with little or no professional experience. One of the book's key strengths is the emphasis on real data sets, which have been updated in this second edition. These data sets are taken from government and business sources and are used throughout in the chapter examples and exercises. Forecasting techniques are demonstrated using a variety of software platforms beyond just "R," and a companion website provides easy-to-use Excel(R) macros that users can access to conduct analyses. Another important innovation in the second edition is the tutorial support for using open-source R programs, making all the methods available for use both in courses and practice. After the introductory chapters, the focus shifts to using extrapolative methods (exponential smoothing and ARIMA), then to statistical model-building using multiple regression. The authors also cover more novel techniques including data mining and judgmental methods, which are gaining increasing attention in applications. The second edition also offers expanded material on data analytics, in particular neural nets together with software, and applications that include new research findings relevant and immediately applicable to operations, such as hierarchical modeling and temporal aggregation. Finally, the authors examine organizational issues of implementation and the development of a forecasting support system within an organization; relevant to every manager, or future manager, who must make plans or decisions based on forecasts. Please take a moment to review the companion website for additional content in the Appendices (Basic Statistical Concepts, overview of Forecasting Software, and Forecasting in R: Tutorial and Examples) the many data sets referenced in the chapters, macros such as the Exponential Smoothing and Trend Curve Marcos and Time Series Neural Network Analysis and student study materials.
Personality And Prediction Principles Of Personality Assessment
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Author : Jerry S. Wiggins
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1973
Personality And Prediction Principles Of Personality Assessment written by Jerry S. Wiggins and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1973 with Psychology categories.
Principles Of Business Forecasting
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Author : Keith Ord
language : en
Publisher: Cengage Learning
Release Date : 2013-06-25
Principles Of Business Forecasting written by Keith Ord and has been published by Cengage Learning this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-06-25 with Business & Economics categories.
Ord/Fildes PRINCIPLES OF BUSINESS FORECASTING, 1E serves as both a textbook for students and as a reference book for experienced forecasters in a variety of fields. The authors' motivation for writing this book is to give users the tools and insight to make the most effective forecasts drawing on the latest research ideas. Ord and Fildes have designed PRINCIPLES OF BUSINESS FORECASTING for users who have taken a first course in applied statistics or who have an equivalent background. This book introduces both standard and advanced forecasting methods and their underlying models, and also includes general principles to guide and simplify forecasting practice. A key strength of the book is its emphasis on real data sets, taken from government and business sources and used in each chapter's examples. Forecasting techniques are demonstrated using a variety of software platforms and the companion website provides easy-to-use Excel macros to support the basic methods. After the introductory chapters, the focus shifts to using extrapolative methods (exponential smoothing and ARIMA) and then to statistical model-building using multiple regression. The authors also cover more novel techniques including data mining and judgmental methods, which are gaining increasing attention in applications. Finally, they examine organizational issues of implementation and the development of a forecasting support system within an organization. Important Notice: Media content referenced within the product description or the product text may not be available in the ebook version.
Time Predictions
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Author : Torleif Halkjelsvik
language : en
Publisher: Springer
Release Date : 2018-02-28
Time Predictions written by Torleif Halkjelsvik and has been published by Springer this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018-02-28 with Business & Economics categories.
This book is published open access under a CC BY 4.0 license. Predicting the time needed to complete a project, task or daily activity can be difficult and people frequently underestimate how long an activity will take. This book sheds light on why and when this happens, what we should do to avoid it and how to give more realistic time predictions. It describes methods for predicting time usage in situations with high uncertainty, explains why two plus two is usually more than four in time prediction contexts, reports on research on time prediction biases, and summarizes the evidence in support of different time prediction methods and principles. Based on a comprehensive review of the research, it is the first book summarizing what we know about judgment-based time predictions. Large parts of the book are directed toward people wishing to achieve better time predictions in their professional life, such as project managers, graphic designers, architects, engineers, film producers, consultants, software developers, or anyone else in need of realistic time usage predictions. It is also of benefit to those with a general interest in judgment and decision-making or those who want to improve their ability to predict and plan ahead in daily life.
Predicting The Future
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Author : Nicholas Rescher
language : en
Publisher: SUNY Press
Release Date : 1998-01-01
Predicting The Future written by Nicholas Rescher and has been published by SUNY Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1998-01-01 with Social Science categories.
The future obviously matters to us. It is, after all, where we'll be spending the rest of our lives. We need some degree of foresight if we are to make effective plans for managing our affairs. Much that we would like to know in advance cannot be predicted. But a vast amount of successful prediction is nonetheless possible, especially in the context of applied sciences such as medicine, meteorology, and engineering. This book examines our prospects for finding out about the future in advance. It addresses questions such as why prediction is possible in some areas and not others; what sorts of methods and resources make successful prediction possible; and what obstacles limit the predictive venture. Nicholas Rescher develops a general theory of prediction that encompasses its fundamental principles, methodology, and practice and gives an overview of its promises and problems. Predicting the Future considers the anthropological and historical background of the predictive enterprise. It also examines the conceptual, epistemic, and ontological principles that set the stage for predictive efforts. In short, Rescher explores the basic features of the predictive situation and considers their broader implications in science, in philosophy, and in the management of our daily affairs.