Probability And The Art Of Judgment
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Probability And The Art Of Judgment
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Author : Richard C. Jeffrey
language : en
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Release Date : 1992-03-27
Probability And The Art Of Judgment written by Richard C. Jeffrey and has been published by Cambridge University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1992-03-27 with Mathematics categories.
Spanning a period of 35 years, this collection of essays includes some of the classic works of one of the most distinquished and influential philosophers working in the field of decision theory and the theory of knowledge.
Probability And The Art Of Judgment
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Author : Richard Jeffrey
language : en
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Release Date : 1992-03-27
Probability And The Art Of Judgment written by Richard Jeffrey and has been published by Cambridge University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1992-03-27 with Science categories.
Richard Jeffrey is beyond dispute one of the most distinguished and influential philosophers working in the field of decision theory and the theory of knowledge. His work is distinctive in showing the interplay of epistemological concerns with probability and utility theory. Not only has he made use of standard probabilistic and decision theoretic tools to clarify concepts of evidential support and informed choice, he has also proposed significant modifications of the standard Bayesian position in order that it provide a better fit with actual human experience. Probability logic is viewed not as a source of judgment but as a framework for explaining the implications of probabilistic judgments and their mutual compatability This collection of essays spans a period of some 35 years and includes what have become some of the classic works in the literature. There is also one completely new piece, while in many instances Jeffrey includes afterthoughts on the older essays.
Probability
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Author : D.H. Mellor
language : en
Publisher: Routledge
Release Date : 2004-03-01
Probability written by D.H. Mellor and has been published by Routledge this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2004-03-01 with Philosophy categories.
Probability: A Philosophical Introduction introduces and explains the principal concepts and applications of probability. It is intended for philosophers and others who want to understand probability as we all apply it in our working and everyday lives. The book is not a course in mathematical probability, of which it uses only the simplest results, and avoids all needless technicality. The role of probability in modern theories of knowledge, inference, induction, causation, laws of nature, action and decision-making makes an understanding of it especially important to philosophers and students of philosophy, to whom this book will be invaluable both as a textbook and a work of reference. In this book D. H. Mellor discusses the three basic kinds of probability – physical, epistemic, and subjective – and introduces and assesses the main theories and interpretations of them. The topics and concepts covered include: * chance * frequency * possibility * propensity * credence * confirmation * Bayesianism. Probability: A Philosophical Introduction is essential reading for all philosophy students and others who encounter or need to apply ideas of probability.
The Art Of Probability
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Author : Richard W. Hamming
language : en
Publisher: CRC Press
Release Date : 2018-03-05
The Art Of Probability written by Richard W. Hamming and has been published by CRC Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018-03-05 with Mathematics categories.
Offering accessible and nuanced coverage, Richard W. Hamming discusses theories of probability with unique clarity and depth. Topics covered include the basic philosophical assumptions, the nature of stochastic methods, and Shannon entropy. One of the best introductions to the topic, The Art of Probability is filled with unique insights and tricks worth knowing.
Psychological Probability
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Author : John Cohen
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1972
Psychological Probability written by John Cohen and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1972 with Philosophy categories.
Elicitation
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Author : Luis C. Dias
language : en
Publisher: Springer
Release Date : 2017-11-16
Elicitation written by Luis C. Dias and has been published by Springer this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017-11-16 with Business & Economics categories.
This book is about elicitation: the facilitation of the quantitative expression of subjective judgement about matters of fact, interacting with subject experts, or about matters of value, interacting with decision makers or stakeholders. It offers an integrated presentation of procedures and processes that allow analysts and experts to think clearly about numbers, particularly the inputs for decision support systems and models. This presentation encompasses research originating in the communities of structured probability elicitation/calibration and multi-criteria decision analysis, often unaware of each other’s developments. Chapters 2 through 9 focus on processes to elicit uncertainty from experts, including the Classical Method for aggregating judgements from multiple experts concerning probability distributions; the issue of validation in the Classical Method; the Sheffield elicitation framework; the IDEA protocol; approaches following the Bayesian perspective; the main elements of structured expert processes for dependence elicitation; and how mathematical methods can incorporate correlations between experts. Chapters 10 through 14 focus on processes to elicit preferences from stakeholders or decision makers, including two chapters on problems under uncertainty (utility functions), and three chapters that address elicitation of preferences independently of, or in absence of, any uncertainty elicitation (value functions and ELECTRE). Two chapters then focus on cross-cutting issues for elicitation of uncertainties and elicitation of preferences: biases and selection of experts. Finally, the last group of chapters illustrates how some of the presented approaches are applied in practice, including a food security case in the UK; expert elicitation in health care decision making; an expert judgement based method to elicit nuclear threat risks in US ports; risk assessment in a pulp and paper manufacturer in the Nordic countries; and elicitation of preferences for crop planning in a Greek region.
Judgment And Decision Making Under Uncertainty Descriptive Normative And Prescriptive Perspectives
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Author : David R. Mandel
language : en
Publisher: Frontiers Media SA
Release Date : 2019-09-26
Judgment And Decision Making Under Uncertainty Descriptive Normative And Prescriptive Perspectives written by David R. Mandel and has been published by Frontiers Media SA this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019-09-26 with categories.
Judgment Under Uncertainty
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Author : Daniel Kahneman
language : en
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Release Date : 1982-04-30
Judgment Under Uncertainty written by Daniel Kahneman and has been published by Cambridge University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1982-04-30 with Psychology categories.
Thirty-five chapters describe various judgmental heuristics and the biases they produce, not only in laboratory experiments, but in important social, medical, and political situations as well. Most review multiple studies or entire subareas rather than describing single experimental studies.
Structural Reliabilism
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Author : P. Kawalec
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2012-12-06
Structural Reliabilism written by P. Kawalec and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-12-06 with Philosophy categories.
Kawalec's monograph is a novel defence of the programme of inductive logic, developed initially by Rudolf Carnap in the 1950s and Jaakko Hintikka in the 1960s. It revives inductive logic by bringing out the underlying epistemology. The main strength of the work is its link between inductive logic and contemporary discussions of epistemology. Through this perspective the author succeeds to shed new light on the significance of inductive logic. The resulting structural reliabilist theory propounds the view that justification supervenes on syntactic and semantic properties of sentences as justification-bearers. The claim is made that this sets up a genuine alternative to the prevailing theories of justification. Kawalec substantiates this claim by confronting structural reliabilism with a number of epistemological problems. Kawalec writes in a clear manner, makes his theses and arguments explicit, and gives ample bibliographical references.
Dictionary Of Modern American Philosophers
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Author : John R. Shook
language : en
Publisher: Bloomsbury Publishing
Release Date : 2005-05-15
Dictionary Of Modern American Philosophers written by John R. Shook and has been published by Bloomsbury Publishing this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2005-05-15 with Philosophy categories.
The Dictionary of Modern American Philosophers includes both academic and non-academic philosophers, and a large number of female and minority thinkers whose work has been neglected. It includes those intellectuals involved in the development of psychology, pedagogy, sociology, anthropology, education, theology, political science, and several other fields, before these disciplines came to be considered distinct from philosophy in the late nineteenth century. Each entry contains a short biography of the writer, an exposition and analysis of his or her doctrines and ideas, a bibliography of writings, and suggestions for further reading. While all the major post-Civil War philosophers are present, the most valuable feature of this dictionary is its coverage of a huge range of less well-known writers, including hundreds of presently obscure thinkers. In many cases, the Dictionary of Modern American Philosophers offers the first scholarly treatment of the life and work of certain writers. This book will be an indispensable reference work for scholars working on almost any aspect of modern American thought.