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Probability Decisions And Games

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Probability Decisions And Games

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Author : Abel Rodríguez
language : en
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Release Date : 2018-03-21

Probability Decisions And Games written by Abel Rodríguez and has been published by John Wiley & Sons this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018-03-21 with Mathematics categories.

Introduces the fundamentals of probability, statistics, decision theory, and game theory, and features interesting examples of games of chance and strategy to motivate and illustrate abstract mathematical concepts Covering both random and strategic games, Probability, Decisions and Games features a variety of gaming and gambling examples to build a better understanding of basic concepts of probability, statistics, decision theory, and game theory. The authors present fundamental concepts such as random variables, rational choice theory, mathematical expectation and variance, fair games, combinatorial calculus, conditional probability, Bayes Theorem, Bernoulli trials, zero-sum games and Nash equilibria, as well as their application in games such as Roulette, Craps, Lotto, Blackjack, Poker, Rock-Paper-Scissors, the Game of Chicken and Tic-Tac-Toe. Computer simulations, implemented using the popular R computing environment, are used to provide intuition on key concepts and verify complex calculations. The book starts by introducing simple concepts that are carefully motivated by the same historical examples that drove their original development of the field of probability, and then applies those concepts to popular contemporary games. The first two chapters of Probability, Decisions and Games: A Gentle Introduction using R feature an introductory discussion of probability and rational choice theory in finite and discrete spaces that builds upon the simple games discussed in the famous correspondence between Blaise Pascal and Pierre de Fermat. Subsequent chapters utilize popular casino games such as Roulette and Blackjack to expand on these concepts illustrate modern applications of these methodologies. Finally, the book concludes with discussions on game theory using a number of strategic games. This book: Features introductory coverage of probability, statistics, decision theory and game theory, and has been class-tested at University of California, Santa Cruz for the past six years Illustrates basic concepts in probability through interesting and fun examples using a number of popular casino games: roulette, lotto, craps, blackjack, and poker Introduces key ideas in game theory using classic games such as Rock-Paper-Scissors, Chess, and Tic-Tac-Toe. Features computer simulations using R throughout in order to illustrate complex concepts and help readers verify complex calculations Contains exercises and approaches games and gambling at a level that is accessible for readers with minimal experience Adopts a unique approach by motivating complex concepts using first simple games and then moving on to more complex, well-known games that illustrate how these concepts work together Probability, Decisions and Games: A Gentle Introduction using R is a unique and helpful textbook for undergraduate courses on statistical reasoning, introduction to probability, statistical literacy, and quantitative reasoning for students from a variety of disciplines.

Probability Decisions And Games

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Author : Abel Rodríguez
language : en
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Release Date : 2018-04-24

Games Gambling And Probability

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Author : David G. Taylor
language : en
Publisher: CRC Press
Release Date : 2021-06-22

Games Gambling And Probability written by David G. Taylor and has been published by CRC Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021-06-22 with Mathematics categories.

Many experiments have shown the human brain generally has very serious problems dealing with probability and chance. A greater understanding of probability can help develop the intuition necessary to approach risk with the ability to make more informed (and better) decisions. The first four chapters offer the standard content for an introductory probability course, albeit presented in a much different way and order. The chapters afterward include some discussion of different games, different "ideas" that relate to the law of large numbers, and many more mathematical topics not typically seen in such a book. The use of games is meant to make the book (and course) feel like fun! Since many of the early games discussed are casino games, the study of those games, along with an understanding of the material in later chapters, should remind you that gambling is a bad idea; you should think of placing bets in a casino as paying for entertainment. Winning can, obviously, be a fun reward, but should not ever be expected. Changes for the Second Edition: New chapter on Game Theory New chapter on Sports Mathematics The chapter on Blackjack, which was Chapter 4 in the first edition, appears later in the book. Reorganization has been done to improve the flow of topics and learning. New sections on Arkham Horror, Uno, and Scrabble have been added. Even more exercises were added! The goal for this textbook is to complement the inquiry-based learning movement. In my mind, concepts and ideas will stick with the reader more when they are motivated in an interesting way. Here, we use questions about various games (not just casino games) to motivate the mathematics, and I would say that the writing emphasizes a "just-in-time" mathematics approach. Topics are presented mathematically as questions about the games themselves are posed. Table of Contents Preface 1. Mathematics and Probability 2. Roulette and Craps: Expected Value 3. Counting: Poker Hands 4. More Dice: Counting and Combinations, and Statistics 5. Game Theory: Poker Bluffing and Other Games 6. Probability/Stochastic Matrices: Board Game Movement 7. Sports Mathematics: Probability Meets Athletics 8. Blackjack: Previous Methods Revisited 9. A Mix of Other Games 10. Betting Systems: Can You Beat the System? 11. Potpourri: Assorted Adventures in Probability Appendices Tables Answers and Selected Solutions Bibliography Biography Dr. David G. Taylor is a professor of mathematics and an associate dean for academic affairs at Roanoke College in southwest Virginia. He attended Lebanon Valley College for his B.S. in computer science and mathematics and went to the University of Virginia for his Ph.D. While his graduate school focus was on studying infinite dimensional Lie algebras, he started studying the mathematics of various games in order to have a more undergraduate-friendly research agenda. Work done with two Roanoke College students, Heather Cook and Jonathan Marino, appears in this book! Currently he owns over 100 different board games and enjoys using probability in his decision-making while playing most of those games. In his spare time, he enjoys reading, cooking, coding, playing his board games, and spending time with his six-year-old dog Lilly.

Probability Guide To Gambling

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Author : Catalin Barboianu
language : en
Publisher: INFAROM Publishing
Release Date : 2006

Probability Guide To Gambling written by Catalin Barboianu and has been published by INFAROM Publishing this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2006 with Games & Activities categories.

Over the past two decades, gamblers have begun taking mathematics into account more seriously than ever before. While probability theory is the only rigorous theory modeling the uncertainty, even though in idealized conditions, numerical probabilities are viewed not only as mere mathematical information, but also as a decision-making criterion, especially in gambling. This book presents the mathematics underlying the major games of chance and provides a precise account of the odds associated with all gaming events. It begins by explaining in simple terms the meaning of the concept of probability for the layman and goes on to become an enlightening journey through the mathematics of chance, randomness and risk. It then continues with the basics of discrete probability (definitions, properties, theorems and calculus formulas), combinatorics and counting arguments for those interested in the supporting mathematics. These mathematic sections may be skipped by readers who do not have a minimal background in mathematics; these readers can skip directly to the "Guide to Numerical Results" to pick the odds and recommendations they need for the desired gaming situation. Doing so is possible due to the organization of that chapter, in which the results are listed at the end of each section, mostly in the form of tables. The chapter titled "The Mathematics of Games of Chance" presents these games not only as a good application field for probability theory, but also in terms of human actions where probability-based strategies can be tried to achieve favorable results. Through suggestive examples, the reader can see what are the experiments, events and probability fields in games of chance and how probability calculus works there. The main portion of this work is a collection of probability results for each type of game. Each game's section is packed with formulas and tables. Each section also contains a description of the game, a classification of the gaming events and the applicable probability calculations. The primary goal of this work is to allow the reader to quickly find the odds for a specific gaming situation, in order to improve his or her betting/gaming decisions. Every type of gaming event is tabulated in a logical, consistent and comprehensive manner. The complete methodology and complete or partial calculations are shown to teach players how to calculate probability for any situation, for every stage of the game for any game. Here, readers can find the real odds, returned by precise mathematical formulas and not by partial simulations that most software uses. Collections of odds are presented, as well as strategic recommendations based on those odds, where necessary, for each type of gaming situation. The book contains much new and original material that has not been published previously and provides great coverage of probabilities for the following games of chance: Dice, Slots, Roulette, Baccarat, Blackjack, Texas Hold'em Poker, Lottery and Sport Bets. Most of games of chance are predisposed to probability-based decisions. This is why the approach is not an exclusively statistical one (like many other titles published on this subject), but analytical: every gaming event is taken as an individual applied probability problem to solve. A special chapter defines the probability-based strategy and mathematically shows why such strategy is theoretically optimal.

Decision Making Using Game Theory

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Author : Anthony Kelly
language : en
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Release Date : 2003-03-27

Decision Making Using Game Theory written by Anthony Kelly and has been published by Cambridge University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2003-03-27 with Business & Economics categories.

Game theory is a key element in most decision-making processes involving two or more people or organisations. This book explains how game theory can predict the outcome of complex decision-making processes, and how it can help you to improve your own negotiation and decision-making skills. It is grounded in well-established theory, yet the wide-ranging international examples used to illustrate its application offer a fresh approach to an essential weapon in the armoury of the informed manager. The book is accessibly written, explaining in simple terms the underlying mathematics behind games of skill, before moving on to more sophisticated topics such as zero-sum games, mixed-motive games, and multi-person games, coalitions and power. Clear examples and helpful diagrams are used throughout, and the mathematics is kept to a minimum. It is written for managers, students and decision makers in any field.

Probability And The Art Of Judgment

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Author : Richard C. Jeffrey
language : en
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Release Date : 1992-03-27

Probability And The Art Of Judgment written by Richard C. Jeffrey and has been published by Cambridge University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1992-03-27 with Mathematics categories.

Spanning a period of 35 years, this collection of essays includes some of the classic works of one of the most distinquished and influential philosophers working in the field of decision theory and the theory of knowledge.

Games And Decision Making

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Author : Charalambos D. Aliprantis
language : en
Publisher: Oxford University Press on Demand
Release Date : 2000

Games And Decision Making written by Charalambos D. Aliprantis and has been published by Oxford University Press on Demand this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2000 with Business & Economics categories.

Students need only a basic understanding of elementary calculus and probability to use the book effectively."--BOOK JACKET.

The Game Of Probability

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Author : Rüdiger Campe
language : en
Publisher: Stanford University Press
Release Date : 2013-01-09

The Game Of Probability written by Rüdiger Campe and has been published by Stanford University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-01-09 with Literary Criticism categories.

There exist literary histories of probability and scientific histories of probability, but it has generally been thought that the two did not meet. Campe begs to differ. Mathematical probability, he argues, took over the role of the old probability of poets, orators, and logicians, albeit in scientific terms. Indeed, mathematical probability would not even have been possible without the other probability, whose roots lay in classical antiquity. The Game of Probability revisits the seventeenth and eighteenth-century "probabilistic revolution," providing a history of the relations between mathematical and rhetorical techniques, between the scientific and the aesthetic. This was a revolution that overthrew the "order of things," notably the way that science and art positioned themselves with respect to reality, and its participants included a wide variety of people from as many walks of life. Campe devotes chapters to them in turn. Focusing on the interpretation of games of chance as the model for probability and on the reinterpretation of aesthetic form as verisimilitude (a critical question for theoreticians of that new literary genre, the novel), the scope alone of Campe's book argues for probability's crucial role in the constitution of modernity.

The Mathematics Of Games

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Author : David G. Taylor
language : en
Publisher: CRC Press
Release Date : 2014-12-01

The Mathematics Of Games written by David G. Taylor and has been published by CRC Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014-12-01 with Mathematics categories.

The Mathematics of Games: An Introduction to Probability takes an inquiry-based approach to teaching the standard material for an introductory probability course. It also discusses different games and ideas that relate to the law of large numbers, as well as some more mathematical topics not typically found in similar books. Written in an accessibl

Satisficing Games And Decision Making

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Author : Wynn C. Stirling
language : en
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Release Date : 2003-07-03

Satisficing Games And Decision Making written by Wynn C. Stirling and has been published by Cambridge University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2003-07-03 with Technology & Engineering categories.

In our day-to-day lives we constantly make decisions which are simply 'good enough' rather than optimal. Most computer-based decision-making algorithms, on the other hand, doggedly seek only the optimal solution based on rigid criteria and reject any others. In this book, Professor Stirling outlines an alternative approach, using novel algorithms and techniques which can be used to find satisficing solutions. Building on traditional decision and game theory, these techniques allow decision-making systems to cope with more subtle situations where self and group interests conflict, perfect solutions can't be found and human issues need to be taken into account - in short, more closely modelling the way humans make decisions. The book will therefore be of great interest to engineers, computer scientists and mathematicians working on artificial intelligence and expert systems.

Probability Decisions And Games

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