Psychological Probability
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The Concept Of Probability In Psychological Experiments
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Author : C.-A. Staël von Holstein
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2012-12-06
The Concept Of Probability In Psychological Experiments written by C.-A. Staël von Holstein and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-12-06 with Social Science categories.
1. BACKGROUND The last twenty-five years have seen a large amount of psychological research in the area of behavioral decision theory. It followed the major breakthrough of decision theory that came with von Neumann and Morgenstern's Theory of Games and Economic Behavior in 1944. The key concepts are probability as a measure of uncertainty and utility as a measure of value and risk. The theory prescribes, given some behavioral axioms, that alternatives should be ranked in accordance with their expected utilities. Psychologists became interested in studying how people's decision behavior agreed with what was prescribed by the theory. Three broad areas for research developed, i. e. , research relating to each of the two concepts of probability and utility, and research relating to the interaction of the two in decision stituations. The papers in this book have been selected to illustrate various aspects of how the concept of probability has been used in psychological ex perimentation. The early experiments were generated, as mentioned above, by an interest among psychologists to see how people evaluate uncertainty and quantify it in probabilistic terms. Many of these experiments set out to evaluate subjects' estimates of relative frequencies; these were situations where one had access to 'objective' answers. In the 1960's psychologists changed the focus of their studies to how people revise probabilistic judgments when they receive new information. In recent years there has been a growing interest in the cognitive processes by which people express their judgment in probabilistic terms.
Psychological Probability
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Author : John Cohen
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1972
Psychological Probability written by John Cohen and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1972 with Philosophy categories.
Probability And Statistics In Psychological Research And Theory
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Author : Donald Wyman Stilson
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1966
Probability And Statistics In Psychological Research And Theory written by Donald Wyman Stilson and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1966 with Psychology categories.
Cognition And Chance
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Author : Raymond S. Nickerson
language : en
Publisher: Psychology Press
Release Date : 2004-06-24
Cognition And Chance written by Raymond S. Nickerson and has been published by Psychology Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2004-06-24 with Business & Economics categories.
Lack of ability to think probabilistically makes one prone to a variety of irrational fears and vulnerable to scams designed to exploit probabilistic naiveté, impairs decision making under uncertainty, facilitates the misinterpretation of statistical information, and precludes critical evaluation of likelihood claims. Cognition and Chance presents an overview of the information needed to avoid such pitfalls and to assess and respond to probabilistic situations in a rational way. Dr. Nickerson investigates such questions as how good individuals are at thinking probabilistically and how consistent their reasoning under uncertainty is with principles of mathematical statistics and probability theory. He reviews evidence that has been produced in researchers' attempts to investigate these and similar types of questions. Seven conceptual chapters address such topics as probability, chance, randomness, coincidences, inverse probability, paradoxes, dilemmas, and statistics. The remaining five chapters focus on empirical studies of individuals' abilities and limitations as probabilistic thinkers. Topics include estimation and prediction, perception of covariation, choice under uncertainty, and people as intuitive probabilists. Cognition and Chance is intended to appeal to researchers and students in the areas of probability, statistics, psychology, business, economics, decision theory, and social dilemmas.
Theory And Measurement Of Psychological Probability
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Author : STEWARD EDWARD FLIEGE
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1956
Theory And Measurement Of Psychological Probability written by STEWARD EDWARD FLIEGE and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1956 with categories.
The Concept Of Probability In Psychological Experiments
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Author : C -A Stael Von Holstein
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1974-12-31
The Concept Of Probability In Psychological Experiments written by C -A Stael Von Holstein and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1974-12-31 with categories.
Probability In Theory Building
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Author :
language : en
Publisher: BRILL
Release Date : 2023-03-13
Probability In Theory Building written by and has been published by BRILL this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2023-03-13 with Philosophy categories.
Probability And Statistics
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Author : Donald W. Stilson
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1971
Probability And Statistics written by Donald W. Stilson and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1971 with categories.
The Probabilistic Mind
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Author : Nick Chater
language : en
Publisher: OUP Oxford
Release Date : 2008
The Probabilistic Mind written by Nick Chater and has been published by OUP Oxford this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2008 with Philosophy categories.
The Probabilistic Mind is a follow-up to the influential and highly cited Rational Models of Cognition (OUP, 1998). It brings together developmetns in understanding how, and how far, high-level cognitive processes can be understood in rational terms, and particularly using probabilistic Bayesian methods.
Theories Of Probability
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Author : Louis Narens
language : en
Publisher: World Scientific
Release Date : 2007
Theories Of Probability written by Louis Narens and has been published by World Scientific this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2007 with Mathematics categories.
Standard probability theory has been an enormously successful contribution to modern science. However, from many perspectives it is too narrow as a general theory of uncertainty, particularly for issues involving subjective uncertainty. This first-of-its-kind book is primarily based on qualitative approaches to probabilistic-like uncertainty, and includes qualitative theories for the standard theory as well as several of its generalizations.One of these generalizations produces a belief function composed of two functions: a probability function that measures the probabilistic strength of an uncertain event, and another function that measures the amount of ambiguity or vagueness of the event. Another unique approach of the book is to change the event space from a boolean algebra, which is closely linked to classical propositional logic, to a different event algebra that is closely linked to a well-studied generalization of classical propositional logic known as intuitionistic logic. Together, these new qualitative theories succeed where the standard probability theory fails by accounting for a number of puzzling empirical findings in the psychology of human probability judgments and decision making.