Rational Expectations In Macroeconomic Models
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Rational Expectations In Macroeconomic Models
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Author : P. Fisher
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2013-04-17
Rational Expectations In Macroeconomic Models written by P. Fisher and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-04-17 with Business & Economics categories.
It is commonly believed that macroeconomic models are not useful for policy analysis because they do not take proper account of agents' expectations. Over the last decade, mainstream macroeconomic models in the UK and elsewhere have taken on board the `Rational Expectations Revolution' by explicitly incorporating expectations of the future. In principle, one can perform the same technical exercises on a forward expectations model as on a conventional model -- and more! Rational Expectations in Macroeconomic Models deals with the numerical methods necessary to carry out policy analysis and forecasting with these models. These methods are often passed on by word of mouth or confined to obscure journals. Rational Expectations in Macroeconomic Models brings them together with applications which are interesting in their own right. There is no comparable textbook in the literature. The specific subjects include: (i) solving for model consistent expectations; (ii) the choice of terminal condition and time horizon; (iii) experimental design: i.e., the effect of temporary vs permanent, anticipated vs. unanticipated shocks; deterministic vs. stochastic, dynamic vs. static simulation; (iv) the role of exchange rate; (v) optimal control and inflation-output tradeoffs. The models used are those of the Liverpool Research Group in Macroeconomics, the London Business School and the National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
An Econometric Rational Expectations Macroeconomic Model For Developing Countries With Capital Controls
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Author : International Monetary Fund
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 1990-02-01
An Econometric Rational Expectations Macroeconomic Model For Developing Countries With Capital Controls written by International Monetary Fund and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1990-02-01 with Business & Economics categories.
A small macroeconomic model based on familiar theoretical considerations is developed and estimated using data from 31 developing countries. Efficient estimation techniques are used to control for country heterogeneity under the assumption of rational expectations. The estimates and the test statistics suggest that the model could serve well as a framework for developing-country macroeconomic analysis. An interesting feature of the specification of the model is that it allows the hypothesis of capital mobility to be explicitly tested. The empirical analysis suggests that on average developing countries tend to exhibit a high degree of capital mobility.
Learning And Expectations In Macroeconomics
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Author : George W. Evans
language : en
Publisher: Princeton University Press
Release Date : 2012-01-06
Learning And Expectations In Macroeconomics written by George W. Evans and has been published by Princeton University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-01-06 with Business & Economics categories.
A crucial challenge for economists is figuring out how people interpret the world and form expectations that will likely influence their economic activity. Inflation, asset prices, exchange rates, investment, and consumption are just some of the economic variables that are largely explained by expectations. Here George Evans and Seppo Honkapohja bring new explanatory power to a variety of expectation formation models by focusing on the learning factor. Whereas the rational expectations paradigm offers the prevailing method to determining expectations, it assumes very theoretical knowledge on the part of economic actors. Evans and Honkapohja contribute to a growing body of research positing that households and firms learn by making forecasts using observed data, updating their forecast rules over time in response to errors. This book is the first systematic development of the new statistical learning approach. Depending on the particular economic structure, the economy may converge to a standard rational-expectations or a "rational bubble" solution, or exhibit persistent learning dynamics. The learning approach also provides tools to assess the importance of new models with expectational indeterminacy, in which expectations are an independent cause of macroeconomic fluctuations. Moreover, learning dynamics provide a theory for the evolution of expectations and selection between alternative equilibria, with implications for business cycles, asset price volatility, and policy. This book provides an authoritative treatment of this emerging field, developing the analytical techniques in detail and using them to synthesize and extend existing research.
Analyses In Macroeconomic Modelling
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Author : Andrew J. Hughes Hallett
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2012-12-06
Analyses In Macroeconomic Modelling written by Andrew J. Hughes Hallett and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-12-06 with Business & Economics categories.
Macroeconomic Modelling has undergone radical changes in the last few years. There has been considerable innovation in developing robust solution techniques for the new breed of increasingly complex models. Similarly there has been a growing consensus on their long run and dynamic properties, as well as much development on existing themes such as modelling expectations and policy rules. This edited volume focuses on those areas which have undergone the most significant and imaginative developments and brings together the very best of modelling practice. We include specific sections on (I) Solving Large Macroeconomic Models, (II) Rational Expectations and Learning Approaches, (III) Macro Dynamics, and (IV) Long Run and Closures. All of the contributions offer new research whilst putting their developments firmly in context and as such will influence much future research in the area. It will be an invaluable text for those in policy institutions as well as academics and advanced students in the fields of economics, mathematics, business and government. Our contributors include those working in central banks, the IMF, European Commission and established academics.
Rethinking Expectations
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Author : Roman Frydman
language : en
Publisher: Princeton University Press
Release Date : 2013-01-23
Rethinking Expectations written by Roman Frydman and has been published by Princeton University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-01-23 with Business & Economics categories.
This book originated from a 2010 conference marking the fortieth anniversary of the publication of the landmark "Phelps volume," Microeconomic Foundations of Employment and Inflation Theory, a book that is often credited with pioneering the currently dominant approach to macroeconomic analysis. However, in their provocative introductory essay, Roman Frydman and Edmund Phelps argue that the vast majority of macroeconomic and finance models developed over the last four decades derailed, rather than built on, the Phelps volume's "microfoundations" approach. Whereas the contributors to the 1970 volume recognized the fundamental importance of according market participants' expectations an autonomous role, contemporary models rely on the rational expectations hypothesis (REH), which rules out such a role by design. The financial crisis that began in 2007, preceded by a spectacular boom and bust in asset prices that REH models implied could never happen, has spurred a quest for fresh approaches to macroeconomic analysis. While the alternatives to REH presented in Rethinking Expectations differ from the approach taken in the original Phelps volume, they are notable for returning to its major theme: understanding aggregate outcomes requires according expectations an autonomous role. In the introductory essay, Frydman and Phelps interpret the various efforts to reconstruct the field--some of which promise to chart its direction for decades to come. The contributors include Philippe Aghion, Sheila Dow, George W. Evans, Roger E. A. Farmer, Roman Frydman, Michael D. Goldberg, Roger Guesnerie, Seppo Honkapohja, Katarina Juselius, Enisse Kharroubi, Blake LeBaron, Edmund S. Phelps, John B. Taylor, Michael Woodford, and Gylfi Zoega.
Reduced Forms Of Rational Expectations Models
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Author : Laurence Broze
language : en
Publisher: Psychology Press
Release Date : 2001
Reduced Forms Of Rational Expectations Models written by Laurence Broze and has been published by Psychology Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2001 with Business & Economics categories.
A comprehensive exposition of rational expectations models is provided here, working up from simple univariate models to more sophisticated multivariate and non-linear models.
Reduced Forms Of Rational Expectations Models
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Author : L. Broze
language : en
Publisher: Routledge
Release Date : 2013-06-17
Reduced Forms Of Rational Expectations Models written by L. Broze and has been published by Routledge this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-06-17 with Business & Economics categories.
A comprehensive exposition of rational expectations models is provided here, working up from simple univariate models to more sophisticated multivariate and non-linear models.
Dynamic Econometrics For Empirical Macroeconomic Modelling
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Author : Ragnar Nymoen
language : en
Publisher: World Scientific
Release Date : 2019-07-09
Dynamic Econometrics For Empirical Macroeconomic Modelling written by Ragnar Nymoen and has been published by World Scientific this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019-07-09 with Business & Economics categories.
For Masters and PhD students in EconomicsIn this textbook, the duality between the equilibrium concept used in dynamic economic theory and the stationarity of economic variables is explained and used in the presentation of single equations models and system of equations such as VARs, recursive models and simultaneous equations models.The book also contains chapters on: exogeneity, in the context of estimation, policy analysis and forecasting; automatic (computer based) variable selection, and how it can aid in the specification of an empirical macroeconomic model; and finally, on a common framework for model-based economic forecasting.Supplementary materials and notes are available on the publisher's website.
A Macroeconomics Model And Stabilisation Policies For The Opec Countries
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Author : A. Khalik Salman
language : en
Publisher: Routledge
Release Date : 2019-06-26
A Macroeconomics Model And Stabilisation Policies For The Opec Countries written by A. Khalik Salman and has been published by Routledge this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019-06-26 with Business & Economics categories.
First published in 1999, this book focuses on the macroeconomics issues which directly affect OPEC countries, aiming to set them in the context of the overall development effort. The most extant theoretical and empirical aspects in macroeconomics are integrated smoothly with institutional issues and policy questions. The analysis is illustrated through examples to show how the theories relate to the real world, especially to ongoing debates on developing economies as well as debates that encompass both developing and OPEC and developed countries.
Rational Expectations In Macroeconomics
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Author : C. L. F. Attfield
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1985
Rational Expectations In Macroeconomics written by C. L. F. Attfield and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1985 with Macroeconomics categories.