Real Exchange Rate Overshooting In Large Depreciations Determinants And Consequences
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Real Exchange Rate Overshooting In Large Depreciations Determinants And Consequences
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Author : Mr.Alexander Culiuc
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2020-05-22
Real Exchange Rate Overshooting In Large Depreciations Determinants And Consequences written by Mr.Alexander Culiuc and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020-05-22 with Business & Economics categories.
The consequences of large depreciations on economic activity depend on the relative strength of the contractionary balance sheet and expansionary expenditure switching effects. However, the two operate over different time horizons: the balance sheet effect hits almost immediately, while expenditure switching is delayed by nominal rigidities and other frictions. The paper hypothesizes that the overshooting phase—observed early in the depreciation episode and driven by the balance sheet effect—is largely irrelevant for expenditure switching, which is more closely aligned with ex-post equilibrium depreciation. Given this, larger real exchange rate overshooting should signal a relatively stronger balance sheet effect. Empirical findings support this hypothesis: (i) overshooting is driven by factors associated with the balance sheet effect (high external debt, low reserves, low trade openness), (ii) overshooting-based measures of the balance sheet effect foreshadow post-depreciation output losses, and (iii) the balance sheet effect is strongest early on, while expenditure switching strengthens over the medium term.
Fundamental Determinants Of Exchange Rates
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Author : Jerome L. Stein
language : en
Publisher: Oxford University Press
Release Date : 1997
Fundamental Determinants Of Exchange Rates written by Jerome L. Stein and has been published by Oxford University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1997 with Business & Economics categories.
Neo-classical in its stress on fundamentals that drive a real economy, this study also offers an alternative paradigm to describe and explain short-run movements of nominal exchange rates.
Misalignment Of Exchange Rates
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Author : Richard C. Marston
language : en
Publisher: University of Chicago Press
Release Date : 2008-04-15
Misalignment Of Exchange Rates written by Richard C. Marston and has been published by University of Chicago Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2008-04-15 with Business & Economics categories.
Economists writing on flexible exchange rates in the 1960s foresaw neither the magnitude nor the persistence of the changes in real exchange rates that have occurred in the last fifteen years. Unexpectedly large movements in relative prices have lead to sharp changes in exports and imports, disrupting normal trading relations and causing shifts in employment and output. Many of the largest changes are not equilibrium adjustments to real disturbances but represent instead sustained departures from long-run equilibrium levels, with real exchange rates remaining "misaligned" for years at a time. Contributors to Misalignment of Exchange Rates address a series of questions about misalignment. Several papers investigate the causes of misalignment and the extent to which observed movements in real exchange rates can be attributed to misalignment. These studies are conducted both empirically, through the experiences of the United States, Great Britain, Japan, and the countries of the European Monetary System, and theoretically, through models of imperfect competition. Attention is then turned to the effects of misalignment, especially on employment and production, and to detailed estimates of the effects of changes in exchange rates on several industries, including the U.S. auto industry. In response to the contention that there is significant "hysteresis" in the adjustment of employment and production to changes in exchange rates, contributors also attempt to determine whether the effects of misalignment can be reversed once exchange rates return to earlier levels. Finally, the issue of how to avoid—or at least control—misalignment through macroeconomic policy is confronted.
Integrated Policy Framework Principles For The Use Of Foreign Exchange Intervention
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Author : International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2023-12-21
Integrated Policy Framework Principles For The Use Of Foreign Exchange Intervention written by International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2023-12-21 with Business & Economics categories.
This note guides policy advice on the use of foreign exchange intervention (FXI) as part of the Integrated Policy Framework (IPF) in Fund surveillance. The note provides general principles for the advice in countries with flexible exchange rates and sets out three use cases for FXI that are tied to specific frictions. It explores the use of FXI as part of an overall policy response, allowing the advice to differ with shocks, frictions, and country-specific circumstances.
Evolution And Performance Of Exchange Rate Regimes
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Author : Mr.Kenneth Rogoff
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2003-12-01
Evolution And Performance Of Exchange Rate Regimes written by Mr.Kenneth Rogoff and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2003-12-01 with Business & Economics categories.
Using recent advances in the classification of exchange rate regimes, this paper finds no support for the popular bipolar view that countries will tend over time to move to the polar extremes of free float or rigid peg. Rather, intermediate regimes have shown remarkable durability. The analysis suggests that as economies mature, the value of exchange rate flexibility rises. For countries at a relatively early stage of financial development and integration, fixed or relatively rigid regimes appear to offer some anti-inflation credibility gain without compromising growth objectives. As countries develop economically and institutionally, there appear to be considerable benefits to more flexible regimes. For developed countries that are not in a currency union, relatively flexible exchange rate regimes appear to offer higher growth without any cost in credibility.
Robustness Of Equilibrium Exchange Rate Calculations To Alternative Assumptions And Methodologies
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Author : Tamim Bayoumi
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1994
Robustness Of Equilibrium Exchange Rate Calculations To Alternative Assumptions And Methodologies written by Tamim Bayoumi and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1994 with Foreign exchange rates categories.
Exchange Rate Misalignment
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Author : Lawrence E. Hinkle
language : en
Publisher: World Bank Publications
Release Date : 1999
Exchange Rate Misalignment written by Lawrence E. Hinkle and has been published by World Bank Publications this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1999 with Business & Economics categories.
The study cautiously identifies exchange rate misalignment as an important element in most of the exchange rate crises that plagued the developing world during the last decade. Given that the increasing integration of world capital markets, has escalated the costs of such crises, a broad consensus emerged in recent years, that the overriding objective of exchange rate policy in developing countries, should be to avoid episodes of prolonged, and substantial misalignment, i.e., situations in which the actual real exchange rate differs significantly from its long-run equilibrium value. It was the Bank's involvement in one such misalignment episode, that eventually led to this book. Following an overview on the concepts and measurement of exchange rate misalignment, its impact on the purchasing power parity, and the relationship between the external real exchange rate (RER), and the two-good internal RER for tradables non-tradables, the study presents methodologies - empirical applications - for estimating the RER equilibrium. The study reaches an optimistic conclusion - that enough is known to identify cases of misalignment, and be able to sound clear warning signals. The implication for exchange rate policy is that ignorance about the empirical value of the equilibrium exchange rate, cannot be used to clinch arguments for extreme exchange arrangements, such as clean floats, currency boards, and "dollarization."
Recognizing Reality Unification Of Official And Parallel Market Exchange Rates
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Author : Mr.Simon T Gray
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2021-02-05
Recognizing Reality Unification Of Official And Parallel Market Exchange Rates written by Mr.Simon T Gray and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021-02-05 with Business & Economics categories.
Some central banks have maintained overvalued official exchange rates, while unable to ensure that supply of foreign exchange meets legitimate demand for current account transactions at that price. A parallel exchange rate market develops, in such circumstances; and when the spread between the official and parallel rates is both substantial and sustained, price levels in the economy typically reflect the parallel market exchange rate. “Recognizing reality” by allowing economic agents to use a market clearing rate benefits economic activity without necessarily leading to more inflation. But a unified, market-clearing exchange rate will not stabilize without a supportive fiscal and monetary context. A number of country case studies are included; my thanks to Jie Ren for pulling together all the data for the country case studies, and the production of the charts.
Dominant Currency Paradigm A New Model For Small Open Economies
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Author : Camila Casas
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2017-11-22
Dominant Currency Paradigm A New Model For Small Open Economies written by Camila Casas and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017-11-22 with Business & Economics categories.
Most trade is invoiced in very few currencies. Despite this, the Mundell-Fleming benchmark and its variants focus on pricing in the producer’s currency or in local currency. We model instead a ‘dominant currency paradigm’ for small open economies characterized by three features: pricing in a dominant currency; pricing complementarities, and imported input use in production. Under this paradigm: (a) the terms-of-trade is stable; (b) dominant currency exchange rate pass-through into export and import prices is high regardless of destination or origin of goods; (c) exchange rate pass-through of non-dominant currencies is small; (d) expenditure switching occurs mostly via imports, driven by the dollar exchange rate while exports respond weakly, if at all; (e) strengthening of the dominant currency relative to non-dominant ones can negatively impact global trade; (f) optimal monetary policy targets deviations from the law of one price arising from dominant currency fluctuations, in addition to the inflation and output gap. Using data from Colombia we document strong support for the dominant currency paradigm.
Capital Controls And Capital Flows In Emerging Economies
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Author : Sebastian Edwards
language : en
Publisher: University of Chicago Press
Release Date : 2009-02-15
Capital Controls And Capital Flows In Emerging Economies written by Sebastian Edwards and has been published by University of Chicago Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2009-02-15 with Business & Economics categories.
Some scholars argue that the free movement of capital across borders enhances welfare; others claim it represents a clear peril, especially for emerging nations. In Capital Controls and Capital Flows in Emerging Economies, an esteemed group of contributors examines both the advantages and the pitfalls of restricting capital mobility in these emerging nations. In the aftermath of the East Asian currency crises of 1997, the authors consider mechanisms that eight countries have used to control capital inflows and evaluate their effectiveness in altering the maturity of the resulting external debt and reducing macroeconomic vulnerability. This volume is essential reading for all those interested in emerging nations and the costs and benefits of restricting international capital flows.