Sensitivity In Risk Analyses With Uncertain Numbers
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Sensitivity In Risk Analyses With Uncertain Numbers
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Author : Scott Ferson
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2006
Sensitivity In Risk Analyses With Uncertain Numbers written by Scott Ferson and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2006 with Dempster-Shafer theory categories.
Sensitivity In Risk Analyses With Uncertain Numbers
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Author : W. Troy Tucker
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2006
Sensitivity In Risk Analyses With Uncertain Numbers written by W. Troy Tucker and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2006 with categories.
Sensitivity analysis is a study of how changes in the inputs to a model influence the results of the model. Many techniques have recently been proposed for use when the model is probabilistic. This report considers the related problem of sensitivity analysis when the model includes uncertain numbers that can involve both aleatory and epistemic uncertainty and the method of calculation is Dempster-Shafer evidence theory or probability bounds analysis. Some traditional methods for sensitivity analysis generalize directly for use with uncertain numbers, but, in some respects, sensitivity analysis for these analyses differs from traditional deterministic or probabilistic sensitivity analyses. A case study of a dike reliability assessment illustrates several methods of sensitivity analysis, including traditional probabilistic assessment, local derivatives, and a ''pinching'' strategy that hypothetically reduces the epistemic uncertainty or aleatory uncertainty, or both, in an input variable to estimate the reduction of uncertainty in the outputs. The prospects for applying the methods to black box models are also considered.
Literature Review Of Methods For Representing Uncertainty
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Author : Enrico Zio
language : en
Publisher: FonCSI
Release Date : 2013-03-01
Literature Review Of Methods For Representing Uncertainty written by Enrico Zio and has been published by FonCSI this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-03-01 with Technology & Engineering categories.
This document provides a critical review of different frameworks for uncertainty analysis, in a risk analysis context : classical probabilistic analysis, imprecise probability (interval analysis), probability bound analysis, evidence theory, and possibility theory. The driver of the critical analysis is the decision-making process and the need to feed it with representative information derived from the risk assessment, to robustly support the decision. Technical details of the different frameworks are exposed only to the extent necessary to analyze and judge how these contribute to the communication of risk and the representation of the associated uncertainties to decision-makers, in the typical settings of high-consequence risk analysis of complex systems with limited knowledge on their behaviour.
Uncertainty Propagation And Importance Measure Assessment
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Author : Enrico Zio
language : en
Publisher: FonCSI
Release Date : 2013-12-14
Uncertainty Propagation And Importance Measure Assessment written by Enrico Zio and has been published by FonCSI this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-12-14 with Technology & Engineering categories.
The authors investigate the effects that different representations of epistemic uncertainty have on practical risk assessment problems. Two different application problems are considered: 1. the estimation of component importance measures in the presence of epistemic uncertainties; 2. the propagation of uncertainties through a risk flooding model. The focus is on the epistemic uncertainty affecting the parameters of the models that describe the components’ failures due to incomplete knowledge of their values. This epistemic uncertainty is represented using probability distributions when sufficient data is available for statistical analysis, and by possibility distributions when the information available to define the parameters’ values comes from experts, in the form of imprecise quantitative statements or judgments. Three case studies of increasing complexity are presented: a pedagogical example of importance measure assessment on a three-component system from the literature; assessment of importance measures for the auxiliary feed water system of a nuclear pressurized water reactor; an application in environmental modelling, with an analysis of uncertainty propagation in a hydraulic model for the risk-based design of a flood protection dike.
Dependability Modelling Under Uncertainty
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Author : Philipp Limbourg
language : en
Publisher: Springer
Release Date : 2008-09-08
Dependability Modelling Under Uncertainty written by Philipp Limbourg and has been published by Springer this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2008-09-08 with Computers categories.
Mechatronic design processes have become shorter and more parallelized, induced by growing time-to-market pressure. Methods that enable quantitative analysis in early design stages are required, should dependability analyses aim to influence the design. Due to the limited amount of data in this phase, the level of uncertainty is high and explicit modeling of these uncertainties becomes necessary. This work introduces new uncertainty-preserving dependability methods for early design stages. These include the propagation of uncertainty through dependability models, the activation of data from similar components for analyses and the integration of uncertain dependability predictions into an optimization framework. It is shown that Dempster-Shafer theory can be an alternative to probability theory in early design stage dependability predictions. Expert estimates can be represented, input uncertainty is propagated through the system and prediction uncertainty can be measured and interpreted. The resulting coherent methodology can be applied to represent the uncertainty in dependability models.
Uncertainty In Risk Assessment
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Author : Terje Aven
language : en
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Release Date : 2014-02-03
Uncertainty In Risk Assessment written by Terje Aven and has been published by John Wiley & Sons this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014-02-03 with Mathematics categories.
Explores methods for the representation and treatment of uncertainty in risk assessment In providing guidance for practical decision-making situations concerning high-consequence technologies (e.g., nuclear, oil and gas, transport, etc.), the theories and methods studied in Uncertainty in Risk Assessment have wide-ranging applications from engineering and medicine to environmental impacts and natural disasters, security, and financial risk management. The main focus, however, is on engineering applications. While requiring some fundamental background in risk assessment, as well as a basic knowledge of probability theory and statistics, Uncertainty in Risk Assessment can be read profitably by a broad audience of professionals in the field, including researchers and graduate students on courses within risk analysis, statistics, engineering, and the physical sciences. Uncertainty in Risk Assessment: Illustrates the need for seeing beyond probability to represent uncertainties in risk assessment contexts. Provides simple explanations (supported by straightforward numerical examples) of the meaning of different types of probabilities, including interval probabilities, and the fundamentals of possibility theory and evidence theory. Offers guidance on when to use probability and when to use an alternative representation of uncertainty. Presents and discusses methods for the representation and characterization of uncertainty in risk assessment. Uses examples to clearly illustrate ideas and concepts.
Principles Of Risk Analysis
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Author : Charles Yoe
language : en
Publisher: CRC Press
Release Date : 2011-09-15
Principles Of Risk Analysis written by Charles Yoe and has been published by CRC Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2011-09-15 with Technology & Engineering categories.
In every decision context there are things we know and things we do not know. Risk analysis uses science and the best available evidence to assess what we know—and it is intentional in the way it addresses the importance of the things we don’t know. Principles of Risk Analysis: Decision Making Under Uncertainty lays out the tasks of risk analysis in a straightforward, conceptual manner that is consistent with the risk models of all communities of practice. It answers the questions "what is risk analysis?" and "how do I do this?" Distilling the common principles of the many risk tribes and dialects into serviceable definitions and narratives, the book provides a foundation for the practice of risk analysis and decision making under uncertainty for professionals from all walks of life. In the first part of the book, readers learn the language, models, and concepts of risk analysis and its three component tasks—risk management, assessment, and communication. The second part of the book supplies the tools, techniques, and methodologies to help readers apply the principles. From problem identification and brainstorming to model building and choosing a probability distribution, the author walks readers through the how-to of risk assessment. Addressing the critical task of risk communication, he explains how to present the results of assessments and how to develop effective messages. The book’s simple and straightforward style—based on the author’s decades of experience as a risk analyst, trainer, and educator—strips away the mysterious aura that often accompanies risk analysis. It describes the principles in a manner that empowers readers to begin the practice of risk analysis, to better understand and use the models and practice of their individual fields, and to gain access to the rich and sophisticated professional literature on risk analysis. Additional exercises as well as a free student version of the Palisade Corporation DecisionTools® Suite software and files used in the preparation of this book are available for download.
Water Resource Systems Planning And Management
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Author : Daniel P. Loucks
language : en
Publisher: Springer
Release Date : 2017-03-02
Water Resource Systems Planning And Management written by Daniel P. Loucks and has been published by Springer this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017-03-02 with Technology & Engineering categories.
This book is open access under a CC BY-NC 4.0 license. This revised, updated textbook presents a systems approach to the planning, management, and operation of water resources infrastructure in the environment. Previously published in 2005 by UNESCO and Deltares (Delft Hydraulics at the time), this new edition, written again with contributions from Jery R. Stedinger, Jozef P. M. Dijkman, and Monique T. Villars, is aimed equally at students and professionals. It introduces readers to the concept of viewing issues involving water resources as a system of multiple interacting components and scales. It offers guidelines for initiating and carrying out water resource system planning and management projects. It introduces alternative optimization, simulation, and statistical methods useful for project identification, design, siting, operation and evaluation and for studying post-planning issues. The authors cover both basin-wide and urban water issues and present ways of identifying and evaluating alternatives for addressing multiple-purpose and multi-objective water quantity and quality management challenges. Reinforced with cases studies, exercises, and media supplements throughout, the text is ideal for upper-level undergraduate and graduate courses in water resource planning and management as well as for practicing planners and engineers in the field.
Public Health Risk Assessment For Human Exposure To Chemicals
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Author : K. Asante-Duah
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2002-09-30
Public Health Risk Assessment For Human Exposure To Chemicals written by K. Asante-Duah and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2002-09-30 with Medical categories.
In fact, with the control and containment of most infectious conditions and diseases of the past millennium having been achieved in most developed countries, and with the resultant increase in life expectancies, much more attention seems to have shifted to degenerative health problems. Many of the degenerative health conditions have been linked to thousands of chemicals regularly encountered in human living and occupational/work environments. It is important, therefore, that human health risk assessments are undertaken on a consistent basis - in order to determine the potential impacts of the target chemicals on public health.
Computer Aided Systems Theory Eurocast 2013
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Author : Roberto Moreno-Díaz
language : en
Publisher: Springer
Release Date : 2013-12-12
Computer Aided Systems Theory Eurocast 2013 written by Roberto Moreno-Díaz and has been published by Springer this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-12-12 with Computers categories.
The two-volume set LNCS 8111 and LNCS 8112 constitute the papers presented at the 14th International Conference on Computer Aided Systems Theory, EUROCAST 2013, held in February 2013 in Las Palmas de Gran Canaria, Spain. The total of 131 papers presented were carefully reviewed and selected for inclusion in the books. The contributions are organized in topical sections on modelling biological systems; systems theory and applications; intelligent information processing; theory and applications of metaheuristic algorithms; model-based system design, verification and simulation; process modeling simulation and system optimization; mobile and autonomous transportation systems; computer vision, sensing, image processing and medical applications; computer-based methods and virtual reality for clinical and academic medicine; digital signal processing methods and applications; mechatronic systems, robotics and marine robots; mobile computing platforms and technologies; systems applications.