State Of The Art Deep Learning For Multi Product Intermittent Time Series Forecasting
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State Of The Art Deep Learning For Multi Product Intermittent Time Series Forecasting
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Author : Ronish Samir Raval
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2021
State Of The Art Deep Learning For Multi Product Intermittent Time Series Forecasting written by Ronish Samir Raval and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021 with categories.
Deep learning is gaining traction and considerable attention due to the state-of-the-art results obtained in computer vision, object detection, natural language processing, sequential analysis, and multiple other domains. Study of literature reveals that time series analysis is a good candidate for modeling using deep learning techniques. Time series analysis has applications from finance to supply chain domains and proves to be critical in driving organizations' profit and strategic growth. In a retail setting, product demand forecasting helps in minimizing inventory, optimizing service levels, and maximizing revenue. When dealing with demand forecasting, a much complex branch of intermittent demand profiles arises. When forecasting time series, the standard option comes down to statistical learning methods such as ARIMA, exponential smoothing, and several other models. However, in case of intermittency in demand and forecasting multiple time series at once, statistical learning methods fail to provide a high level of accuracy and can sometimes become computationally expensive as well. Deep learning algorithms enter the fray, as they can be applied to tackle the problem of forecasting intermittent sales while solving the problem in a computationally frugal manner. The study focuses on solving these two problems using a state-of-the-art based approach. It helps us answer the questions of -- How to implement neural networks in a value-add manner? And which models and architectures work best in our time series prediction problem with similar real-world applications? The study reveals that recurrent and convolutional architectures exhibit versatility and value in solving this problem, helping us understand the deep learning models and their application architectures in real-world scenarios. In this thesis, we have tried to answer these two important questions. The data was obtained from Kaggle for the M5 forecasting competition. The dataset relates to the daily Walmart sales of 3,000 products ranging across 10 stores. The data comprises of 3 different categories and 7 sub-categories, making it a multi-time series forecasting problem. We have applied the methods of statistical learning and deep learning to solve this problem. Statistical models of naïve method, moving average, ARIMA, Croston forecasting have been implemented. In deep learning, we initially use the deep feed-forward neural network to forecast the sales. Then recurrent architectures of RNN, LSTM and GRU are applied. Sequence learning and Attention mechanism have been implemented. Convolutional architectures of CNN, Wavenet, and temporal convolutional network have also been experimented for our problem. For the methodology, we initially select a single time series from the dataset and apply the statistical and deep learning models. This step in the methodology provides us with a strong fundamental understanding of how deep learning models are tuned to obtain the optimal architecture. Then, using the results from a single time series forecasting problem, we shortlist the most optimal deep learning models and their optimal architectures, to solve the problem of time series forecasting. We conclude that recurrent architectures provide the optimal solutions for our analysis (we define optimality through error minimization), and state-of-the-art models such as attention mechanism and sequence learning provide results within acceptable range, but their models are too computationally expensive to learn for multiple epochs and forecasts. We then conclude our analysis by providing important areas to focus on deep learning for time series forecasting in our future work.
Proceedings Of The 2nd International Conference On Neural Networks And Machine Learning 2023 Icnnml 2023
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Author : Ika Hesti Agustin
language : en
Publisher: Springer Nature
Release Date : 2024-06-27
Proceedings Of The 2nd International Conference On Neural Networks And Machine Learning 2023 Icnnml 2023 written by Ika Hesti Agustin and has been published by Springer Nature this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2024-06-27 with Mathematics categories.
This is an open access book.It is with my great pleasure and honor to announce The 2nd International Conference on Neural Networks and Machine Learning which will be held from 7th – 8th November 2023 in the University of Jember, East Java, Indonesia. The selected paper will be Published in Advances in Intelligent System Research by Atlantis Press. It is the second international conference organized by CGANT Research Group, University of Jember.
Deep Learning
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Author : Ian Goodfellow
language : en
Publisher: MIT Press
Release Date : 2016-11-10
Deep Learning written by Ian Goodfellow and has been published by MIT Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016-11-10 with Computers categories.
An introduction to a broad range of topics in deep learning, covering mathematical and conceptual background, deep learning techniques used in industry, and research perspectives. “Written by three experts in the field, Deep Learning is the only comprehensive book on the subject.” —Elon Musk, cochair of OpenAI; cofounder and CEO of Tesla and SpaceX Deep learning is a form of machine learning that enables computers to learn from experience and understand the world in terms of a hierarchy of concepts. Because the computer gathers knowledge from experience, there is no need for a human computer operator to formally specify all the knowledge that the computer needs. The hierarchy of concepts allows the computer to learn complicated concepts by building them out of simpler ones; a graph of these hierarchies would be many layers deep. This book introduces a broad range of topics in deep learning. The text offers mathematical and conceptual background, covering relevant concepts in linear algebra, probability theory and information theory, numerical computation, and machine learning. It describes deep learning techniques used by practitioners in industry, including deep feedforward networks, regularization, optimization algorithms, convolutional networks, sequence modeling, and practical methodology; and it surveys such applications as natural language processing, speech recognition, computer vision, online recommendation systems, bioinformatics, and videogames. Finally, the book offers research perspectives, covering such theoretical topics as linear factor models, autoencoders, representation learning, structured probabilistic models, Monte Carlo methods, the partition function, approximate inference, and deep generative models. Deep Learning can be used by undergraduate or graduate students planning careers in either industry or research, and by software engineers who want to begin using deep learning in their products or platforms. A website offers supplementary material for both readers and instructors.
Core Concepts And Methods In Load Forecasting
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Author : Stephen Haben
language : en
Publisher: Springer Nature
Release Date : 2023-06-01
Core Concepts And Methods In Load Forecasting written by Stephen Haben and has been published by Springer Nature this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2023-06-01 with Technology & Engineering categories.
This comprehensive open access book enables readers to discover the essential techniques for load forecasting in electricity networks, particularly for active distribution networks. From statistical methods to deep learning and probabilistic approaches, the book covers a wide range of techniques and includes real-world applications and a worked examples using actual electricity data (including an example implemented through shared code). Advanced topics for further research are also included, as well as a detailed appendix on where to find data and additional reading. As the smart grid and low carbon economy continue to evolve, the proper development of forecasting methods is vital. This book is a must-read for students, industry professionals, and anyone interested in forecasting for smart control applications, demand-side response, energy markets, and renewable utilization.
Sales Forecasting Management
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Author : John T. Mentzer
language : en
Publisher: SAGE
Release Date : 2004-11-23
Sales Forecasting Management written by John T. Mentzer and has been published by SAGE this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2004-11-23 with Business & Economics categories.
Incorporating 25 years of sales forecasting management research with more than 400 companies, Sales Forecasting Management, Second Edition is the first text to truly integrate the theory and practice of sales forecasting management. This research includes the personal experiences of John T. Mentzer and Mark A. Moon in advising companies how to improve their sales forecasting management practices. Their program of research includes two major surveys of companies′ sales forecasting practices, a two-year, in-depth study of sales forecasting management practices of 20 major companies, and an ongoing study of how to apply the findings from the two-year study to conducting sales forecasting audits of additional companies. The book provides comprehensive coverage of the techniques and applications of sales forecasting analysis, combined with a managerial focus to give managers and users of the sales forecasting function a clear understanding of the forecasting needs of all business functions. New to This Edition: The author′s well-regarded Multicaster software system demo, previously available on cassette, has been updated and is now available for download from the authors′ Web site New insights on the critical area of qualitative forecasting are presented The results of additional surveys done since the publication of the first edition have been added The discussion of the four dimensions of forecasting management has been significantly enhanced Significant reorganization and updating has been done to strengthen and improve the material for the second edition. Sales Forecasting Management is an ideal text for graduate courses in sales forecasting management. Practitioners in marketing, sales, finance/accounting, production/purchasing, and logistics will also find this easy-to-understand volume essential.
Bayesian Reasoning And Machine Learning
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Author : David Barber
language : en
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Release Date : 2012-02-02
Bayesian Reasoning And Machine Learning written by David Barber and has been published by Cambridge University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-02-02 with Computers categories.
A practical introduction perfect for final-year undergraduate and graduate students without a solid background in linear algebra and calculus.
Information Science And Applications Icisa 2016
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Author : Kuinam J. Kim
language : en
Publisher: Springer
Release Date : 2017-02-21
Information Science And Applications Icisa 2016 written by Kuinam J. Kim and has been published by Springer this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017-02-21 with Technology & Engineering categories.
This book contains selected papers from the 7th International Conference on Information Science and Applications (ICISA 2016) and provides a snapshot of the latest issues encountered in technical convergence and convergences of security technology. It explores how information science is core to most current research, industrial and commercial activities and consists of contributions covering topics including Ubiquitous Computing, Networks and Information Systems, Multimedia and Visualization, Middleware and Operating Systems, Security and Privacy, Data Mining and Artificial Intelligence, Software Engineering, and Web Technology. The contributions describe the most recent developments in information technology and ideas, applications and problems related to technology convergence, illustrated through case studies, and reviews converging existing security techniques. Through this volume, readers will gain an understanding of the current state-of-the-art information strategies and technologies of convergence security. The intended readers are researchers in academia, industry and other research institutes focusing on information science and technology.
Forecasting With Exponential Smoothing
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Author : Rob Hyndman
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2008-06-19
Forecasting With Exponential Smoothing written by Rob Hyndman and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2008-06-19 with Mathematics categories.
Exponential smoothing methods have been around since the 1950s, and are still the most popular forecasting methods used in business and industry. However, a modeling framework incorporating stochastic models, likelihood calculation, prediction intervals and procedures for model selection, was not developed until recently. This book brings together all of the important new results on the state space framework for exponential smoothing. It will be of interest to people wanting to apply the methods in their own area of interest as well as for researchers wanting to take the ideas in new directions. Part 1 provides an introduction to exponential smoothing and the underlying models. The essential details are given in Part 2, which also provide links to the most important papers in the literature. More advanced topics are covered in Part 3, including the mathematical properties of the models and extensions of the models for specific problems. Applications to particular domains are discussed in Part 4.
Developments Of Artificial Intelligence Technologies In Computation And Robotics Proceedings Of The 14th International Flins Conference Flins 2020
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Author : Zhong Li
language : en
Publisher: World Scientific
Release Date : 2020-08-04
Developments Of Artificial Intelligence Technologies In Computation And Robotics Proceedings Of The 14th International Flins Conference Flins 2020 written by Zhong Li and has been published by World Scientific this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020-08-04 with Technology & Engineering categories.
FLINS, an acronym introduced in 1994 and originally for Fuzzy Logic and Intelligent Technologies in Nuclear Science, is now extended into a well-established international research forum to advance the foundations and applications of computational intelligence for applied research in general and for complex engineering and decision support systems.The principal mission of FLINS is bridging the gap between machine intelligence and real complex systems via joint research between universities and international research institutions, encouraging interdisciplinary research and bringing multidiscipline researchers together.FLINS 2020 is the fourteenth in a series of conferences on computational intelligence systems.
Advanced Statistical Modeling Forecasting And Fault Detection In Renewable Energy Systems
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Author : Fouzi Harrou
language : en
Publisher: BoD – Books on Demand
Release Date : 2020-04-01
Advanced Statistical Modeling Forecasting And Fault Detection In Renewable Energy Systems written by Fouzi Harrou and has been published by BoD – Books on Demand this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020-04-01 with Technology & Engineering categories.
Fault detection, control, and forecasting have a vital role in renewable energy systems (Photovoltaics (PV) and wind turbines (WTs)) to improve their productivity, ef?ciency, and safety, and to avoid expensive maintenance. For instance, the main crucial and challenging issue in solar and wind energy production is the volatility of intermittent power generation due mainly to weather conditions. This fact usually limits the integration of PV systems and WTs into the power grid. Hence, accurately forecasting power generation in PV and WTs is of great importance for daily/hourly efficient management of power grid production, delivery, and storage, as well as for decision-making on the energy market. Also, accurate and prompt fault detection and diagnosis strategies are required to improve efficiencies of renewable energy systems, avoid the high cost of maintenance, and reduce risks of fire hazards, which could affect both personnel and installed equipment. This book intends to provide the reader with advanced statistical modeling, forecasting, and fault detection techniques in renewable energy systems.