Summary Of Superforecasting Review Keypoints And Take Aways
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Summary Of Superforecasting Review Keypoints And Take Aways
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Author : PenZen Summaries
language : en
Publisher: by Mocktime Publication
Release Date : 2022-11-29
Summary Of Superforecasting Review Keypoints And Take Aways written by PenZen Summaries and has been published by by Mocktime Publication this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2022-11-29 with Study Aids categories.
The summary of Superforecasting – The Art and Science of Prediction presented here include a short review of the book at the start followed by quick overview of main points and a list of important take-aways at the end of the summary. The Summary of The book "Superforecasting," published in 2015, details how to improve the accuracy of your forecasts, whether you're trying to anticipate shifts in the stock market, politics, or your day-to-day life. The book's findings are based on decades of research and the outcomes of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. Superforecasting summary includes the key points and important takeaways from the book Superforecasting by Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner. Disclaimer: 1. This summary is meant to preview and not to substitute the original book. 2. We recommend, for in-depth study purchase the excellent original book. 3. In this summary key points are rewritten and recreated and no part/text is directly taken or copied from original book. 4. If original author/publisher wants us to remove this summary, please contact us at [email protected].
Superforecasting
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Author : Philip Tetlock
language : en
Publisher: Random House
Release Date : 2015-09-24
Superforecasting written by Philip Tetlock and has been published by Random House this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2015-09-24 with Social Science categories.
The international bestseller 'A manual for thinking clearly in an uncertain world. Read it.' Daniel Kahneman, author of Thinking, Fast and Slow _________________________ What if we could improve our ability to predict the future? Everything we do involves forecasts about how the future will unfold. Whether buying a new house or changing job, designing a new product or getting married, our decisions are governed by implicit predictions of how things are likely to turn out. The problem is, we're not very good at it. In a landmark, twenty-year study, Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed that the average expert was only slightly better at predicting the future than a layperson using random guesswork. Tetlock's latest project – an unprecedented, government-funded forecasting tournament involving over a million individual predictions – has since shown that there are, however, some people with real, demonstrable foresight. These are ordinary people, from former ballroom dancers to retired computer programmers, who have an extraordinary ability to predict the future with a degree of accuracy 60% greater than average. They are superforecasters. In Superforecasting, Tetlock and his co-author Dan Gardner offer a fascinating insight into what we can learn from this elite group. They show the methods used by these superforecasters which enable them to outperform even professional intelligence analysts with access to classified data. And they offer practical advice on how we can all use these methods for our own benefit – whether in business, in international affairs, or in everyday life. _________________________ 'The techniques and habits of mind set out in this book are a gift to anyone who has to think about what the future might bring. In other words, to everyone.' Economist 'A terrific piece of work that deserves to be widely read . . . Highly recommended.' Independent 'The best thing I have read on predictions . . . Superforecasting is an indispensable guide to this indispensable activity.' The Times
Expert Political Judgment
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Author : Philip E. Tetlock
language : en
Publisher: Princeton University Press
Release Date : 2017-08-29
Expert Political Judgment written by Philip E. Tetlock and has been published by Princeton University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017-08-29 with Political Science categories.
Since its original publication, Expert Political Judgment by New York Times bestselling author Philip Tetlock has established itself as a contemporary classic in the literature on evaluating expert opinion. Tetlock first discusses arguments about whether the world is too complex for people to find the tools to understand political phenomena, let alone predict the future. He evaluates predictions from experts in different fields, comparing them to predictions by well-informed laity or those based on simple extrapolation from current trends. He goes on to analyze which styles of thinking are more successful in forecasting. Classifying thinking styles using Isaiah Berlin's prototypes of the fox and the hedgehog, Tetlock contends that the fox--the thinker who knows many little things, draws from an eclectic array of traditions, and is better able to improvise in response to changing events--is more successful in predicting the future than the hedgehog, who knows one big thing, toils devotedly within one tradition, and imposes formulaic solutions on ill-defined problems. He notes a perversely inverse relationship between the best scientific indicators of good judgement and the qualities that the media most prizes in pundits--the single-minded determination required to prevail in ideological combat. Clearly written and impeccably researched, the book fills a huge void in the literature on evaluating expert opinion. It will appeal across many academic disciplines as well as to corporations seeking to develop standards for judging expert decision-making. Now with a new preface in which Tetlock discusses the latest research in the field, the book explores what constitutes good judgment in predicting future events and looks at why experts are often wrong in their forecasts.
Thinking Fast And Slow
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Author : Daniel Kahneman
language : en
Publisher: Penguin UK
Release Date : 2011
Thinking Fast And Slow written by Daniel Kahneman and has been published by Penguin UK this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2011 with Business & Economics categories.
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Hacking Darwin
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Author : Jamie Metzl
language : en
Publisher: Sourcebooks, Inc.
Release Date : 2019-04-23
Hacking Darwin written by Jamie Metzl and has been published by Sourcebooks, Inc. this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019-04-23 with Science categories.
"A gifted and thoughtful writer, Metzl brings us to the frontiers of biology and technology, and reveals a world full of promise and peril." — Siddhartha Mukherjee MD, New York Times bestselling author of The Emperor of All Maladies and The Gene A groundbreaking exploration of genetic engineering and its impact on the future of our species from leading geopolitical expert and technology futurist, Jamie Metzl. At the dawn of the genetics revolution, our DNA is becoming as readable, writable, and hackable as our information technology. But as humanity starts retooling our own genetic code, the choices we make today will be the difference between realizing breathtaking advances in human well-being and descending into a dangerous and potentially deadly genetic arms race. Enter the laboratories where scientists are turning science fiction into reality. In this captivating and thought-provoking nonfiction science book, Jamie Metzl delves into the ethical, scientific, political, and technological dimensions of genetic engineering, and shares how it will shape the course of human evolution. Cutting-edge insights into the field of genetic engineering and its implications for humanity's future Explores the transformative power of genetic technologies and their potential to reshape human life Examines the ethical considerations surrounding genetic engineering and the choices we face as a species Engaging narrative that delves into the scientific breakthroughs and real-world applications of genetic technologies Provides a balanced perspective on the promises and risks associated with genetic engineering Raises thought-provoking questions about the future of reproduction, human health, and our relationship with nature Drawing on his extensive background in genetics, national security, and foreign policy, Metzl paints a vivid picture of a world where advancements in technology empower us to take control of our own evolution, but also cautions against the pitfalls and ethical dilemmas that could arise if not properly managed. Hacking Darwin is a must-read for anyone interested in the intersection of science, technology, and humanity's future.
The Creative Curve
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Author : Allen Gannett
language : en
Publisher: Crown Currency
Release Date : 2018-06-12
The Creative Curve written by Allen Gannett and has been published by Crown Currency this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018-06-12 with Business & Economics categories.
Big data entrepreneur Allen Gannett overturns the mythology around creative genius, and reveals the science and secrets behind achieving breakout commercial success in any field. We have been spoon-fed the notion that creativity is the province of genius -- of those favored, brilliant few whose moments of insight arrive in unpredictable flashes of divine inspiration. And if we are not a genius, we might as well pack it in and give up. Either we have that gift, or we don’t. But Allen shows that simply isn’t true. Recent research has shown that there is a predictable science behind achieving commercial success in any creative endeavor, from writing a popular novel to starting up a successful company to creating an effective marketing campaign. As the world’s most creative people have discovered, we are enticed by the novel and the familiar. By understanding the mechanics of what Gannett calls “the creative curve” – the point of optimal tension between the novel and the familiar – everyone can better engineer mainstream success. In a thoroughly entertaining book that describes the stories and insights of everyone from the Broadway team behind Dear Evan Hansen, to the founder of Reddit, from the Chief Content Officer of Netflix to Michelin star chefs, Gannett reveals the four laws of creative success and identifies the common patterns behind their achievement.
Risk
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Author : Dan Gardner
language : en
Publisher: Random House
Release Date : 2008-09-04
Risk written by Dan Gardner and has been published by Random House this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2008-09-04 with Social Science categories.
We are the safest humans who ever lived - the statistics prove it. And yet the media tells a different story with its warnings and scare stories. How is it possible that anxiety has become the stuff of daily life? In this ground-breaking, compulsively readable book, Dan Gardner shows how our flawed strategies for perceiving risk influence our lives, often with unforeseen and sometimes-tragic consequences. He throws light on our paranoia about everything from paedophiles to terrorism and reveals how the most significant threats are actually the mundane risks to which we pay little attention. Speaking to psychologists and scientists, as well as looking at the influence of the media and politicians, Gardner uncovers one of the central puzzles of our time: why are the safest people in history living in a culture of fear?
Mastermind
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Author : Maria Konnikova
language : en
Publisher: Canongate Books
Release Date : 2013-01-17
Mastermind written by Maria Konnikova and has been published by Canongate Books this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-01-17 with Psychology categories.
No fictional character is more renowned for his extraordinary powers of mind than Sherlock Holmes. But what exactly is it that sets him apart as a detective of the highest order, and can we harness his genius? In Mastermind, psychologist Maria Konnikova shows us how we can all channel Holmes's famous powers of deduction, observation, memory and imagination. Drawing on the latest research in neuroscience and psychology, Konnikova unpacks the mental strategies that can help sharpen our perceptions, improve our logic and enhance our creative powers. Mastermind is a remarkable and entertaining guide to upgrading the mind.
Hooked
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Author : Michael Moss
language : en
Publisher: Random House
Release Date : 2021-03-02
Hooked written by Michael Moss and has been published by Random House this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021-03-02 with Business & Economics categories.
NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER • From the author of Salt Sugar Fat comes a “gripping” (The Wall Street Journal) exposé of how the processed food industry exploits our evolutionary instincts, the emotions we associate with food, and legal loopholes in their pursuit of profit over public health. “The processed food industry has managed to avoid being lumped in with Big Tobacco—which is why Michael Moss’s new book is so important.”—Charles Duhigg, author of The Power of Habit Everyone knows how hard it can be to maintain a healthy diet. But what if some of the decisions we make about what to eat are beyond our control? Is it possible that food is addictive, like drugs or alcohol? And to what extent does the food industry know, or care, about these vulnerabilities? In Hooked, Pulitzer Prize–winning investigative reporter Michael Moss sets out to answer these questions—and to find the true peril in our food. Moss uses the latest research on addiction to uncover what the scientific and medical communities—as well as food manufacturers—already know: that food, in some cases, is even more addictive than alcohol, cigarettes, and drugs. Our bodies are hardwired for sweets, so food giants have developed fifty-six types of sugar to add to their products, creating in us the expectation that everything should be cloying; we’ve evolved to prefer fast, convenient meals, hence our modern-day preference for ready-to-eat foods. Moss goes on to show how the processed food industry—including major companies like Nestlé, Mars, and Kellogg’s—has tried not only to evade this troubling discovery about the addictiveness of food but to actually exploit it. For instance, in response to recent dieting trends, food manufacturers have simply turned junk food into junk diets, filling grocery stores with “diet” foods that are hardly distinguishable from the products that got us into trouble in the first place. As obesity rates continue to climb, manufacturers are now claiming to add ingredients that can effortlessly cure our compulsive eating habits. A gripping account of the legal battles, insidious marketing campaigns, and cutting-edge food science that have brought us to our current public health crisis, Hooked lays out all that the food industry is doing to exploit and deepen our addictions, and shows us why what we eat has never mattered more.
Creative Acts For Curious People
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Author : Sarah Stein Greenberg
language : en
Publisher: Penguin UK
Release Date : 2021-09-16
Creative Acts For Curious People written by Sarah Stein Greenberg and has been published by Penguin UK this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021-09-16 with Self-Help categories.
'Packed end to end with ways to see the world in new ways' Mike Krieger, cofounder, Instagram 'Designed to spark creativity, help solve problems, foster connection and make our lives better' Gretchen Rubin 'Navigate today's world with agility, resilience and imagination' Lorraine Twohill, CMO, Google What do they teach you at the most prestigious design school in the world? For the first time, you can find out. This highly-visual guide brings to life the philosophies of some of the d.school's most inventive and unconventional minds, including founder David Kelley, Choreographer Aleta Hayes and Google Chief Innovation Evangelist Frederik Pferdt and more. Creative Acts for Curious People is packed with ideas about the art of learning, discovery and leading through creative problem solving. With exercises including: - 'Expert Eyes' to test your observation skills - 'How to Talk to Strangers' to foster understanding - 'Designing Tools for Teams' to build creative leadership Revealing the hidden dynamics of design, and delving inside the minds of the profession's most celebrated thought-leaders, this definitive guide will help you live up to your creative potential.