The Art Of Causal Conjecture
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The Art Of Causal Conjecture
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Author : Glenn Shafer
language : en
Publisher: MIT Press
Release Date : 1996
The Art Of Causal Conjecture written by Glenn Shafer and has been published by MIT Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1996 with Computers categories.
In The Art of Causal Conjecture, Glenn Shafer lays out a new mathematical and philosophical foundation for probability and uses it to explain concepts of causality used in statistics, artificial intelligence, and philosophy. The various disciplines that use causal reasoning differ in the relative weight they put on security and precision of knowledge as opposed to timeliness of action. The natural and social sciences seek high levels of certainty in the identification of causes and high levels of precision in the measurement of their effects. The practical sciences -- medicine, business, engineering, and artificial intelligence -- must act on causal conjectures based on more limited knowledge. Shafer's understanding of causality contributes to both of these uses of causal reasoning. His language for causal explanation can guide statistical investigation in the natural and social sciences, and it can also be used to formulate assumptions of causal uniformity needed for decision making in the practical sciences. Causal ideas permeate the use of probability and statistics in all branches of industry, commerce, government, and science. The Art of Causal Conjecture shows that causal ideas can be equally important in theory. It does not challenge the maxim that causation cannot be proven from statistics alone, but by bringing causal ideas into the foundations of probability, it allows causal conjectures to be more clearly quantified, debated, and confronted by statistical evidence.
Actual Causality
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Author : Joseph Y. Halpern
language : en
Publisher: MIT Press
Release Date : 2019-02-19
Actual Causality written by Joseph Y. Halpern and has been published by MIT Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019-02-19 with Philosophy categories.
A new approach for defining causality and such related notions as degree of responsibility, degrees of blame, and causal explanation. Causality plays a central role in the way people structure the world; we constantly seek causal explanations for our observations. But what does it even mean that an event C “actually caused” event E? The problem of defining actual causation goes beyond mere philosophical speculation. For example, in many legal arguments, it is precisely what needs to be established in order to determine responsibility. The philosophy literature has been struggling with the problem of defining causality since Hume. In this book, Joseph Halpern explores actual causality, and such related notions as degree of responsibility, degree of blame, and causal explanation. The goal is to arrive at a definition of causality that matches our natural language usage and is helpful, for example, to a jury deciding a legal case, a programmer looking for the line of code that cause some software to fail, or an economist trying to determine whether austerity caused a subsequent depression. Halpern applies and expands an approach to causality that he and Judea Pearl developed, based on structural equations. He carefully formulates a definition of causality, and building on this, defines degree of responsibility, degree of blame, and causal explanation. He concludes by discussing how these ideas can be applied to such practical problems as accountability and program verification. Technical details are generally confined to the final section of each chapter and can be skipped by non-mathematical readers.
Observational Studies
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Author : Paul R. Rosenbaum
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2013-04-17
Observational Studies written by Paul R. Rosenbaum and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-04-17 with Mathematics categories.
A sound statistical account of the principles and methods for the design and analysis of observational studies. Readers are assumed to have a working knowledge of basic probability and statistics, but otherwise the account is reasonably self- contained. Throughout there are extended discussions of actual observational studies to illustrate the ideas discussed, drawn from topics as diverse as smoking and lung cancer, lead in children, nuclear weapons testing, and placement programs for students. As a result, many researchers will find this an invaluable companion in their work.
The Dappled World
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Author : Nancy Cartwright
language : en
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Release Date : 1999-09-23
The Dappled World written by Nancy Cartwright and has been published by Cambridge University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1999-09-23 with Philosophy categories.
This important and innovative collection of essays argues for a patchwork of laws of nature.
Bayesian Decision Analysis
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Author : Jim Q. Smith
language : en
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Release Date : 2010-09-23
Bayesian Decision Analysis written by Jim Q. Smith and has been published by Cambridge University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2010-09-23 with Mathematics categories.
Bayesian decision analysis supports principled decision making in complex domains. This textbook takes the reader from a formal analysis of simple decision problems to a careful analysis of the sometimes very complex and data rich structures confronted by practitioners. The book contains basic material on subjective probability theory and multi-attribute utility theory, event and decision trees, Bayesian networks, influence diagrams and causal Bayesian networks. The author demonstrates when and how the theory can be successfully applied to a given decision problem, how data can be sampled and expert judgements elicited to support this analysis, and when and how an effective Bayesian decision analysis can be implemented. Evolving from a third-year undergraduate course taught by the author over many years, all of the material in this book will be accessible to a student who has completed introductory courses in probability and mathematical statistics.
Mathematical Aspects Of Artificial Intelligence
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Author : Frederick Hoffman
language : en
Publisher: American Mathematical Soc.
Release Date : 1998
Mathematical Aspects Of Artificial Intelligence written by Frederick Hoffman and has been published by American Mathematical Soc. this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1998 with Computers categories.
There exists a history of great expectations and large investments involving artificial intelligence (AI). There are also notable shortfalls and memorable disappointments. One major controversy regarding AI is just how mathematical a field it is or should be. This text includes contributions that examine the connections between AI and mathematics, demonstrating the potential for mathematical applications and exposing some of the more mathematical areas within AI. The goal is to stimulate interest in people who can contribute to the field or use its results. Included in the work by M. Newborn on the famous Deep BLue chess match. He discusses highly mathematical techniques involving graph theory, combinatorics and probability and statistics. G. Shafer offers his development of probability through probability trees with some of the results appearing here for the first time. M. Golumbic treats temporal reasoning with ties to the famous Frame Problem. His contribution involves logic, combinatorics and graph theory and leads to two chapters with logical themes. H. Kirchner explains how ordering techniques in automated reasoning systems make deduction more efficient. Constraint logic programming is discussed by C. Lassez, who shows its intimate ties to linear programming with crucial theorems going back to Fourier. V. Nalwa's work provides a brief tour of computer vision, tying it to mathematics - from combinatorics, probability and geometry to partial differential equations. All authors are gifted expositors and are current contributors to the field. The wide scope of the volume includes research problems, research tools and good motivational material for teaching.
Expert Judgement In Risk And Decision Analysis
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Author : Anca M. Hanea
language : en
Publisher: Springer Nature
Release Date : 2021-02-19
Expert Judgement In Risk And Decision Analysis written by Anca M. Hanea and has been published by Springer Nature this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021-02-19 with Business & Economics categories.
This book pulls together many perspectives on the theory, methods and practice of drawing judgments from panels of experts in assessing risks and making decisions in complex circumstances. The book is divided into four parts: Structured Expert Judgment (SEJ) current research fronts; the contributions of Roger Cooke and the Classical Model he developed; process, procedures and education; and applications. After an Introduction by the Editors, the first part presents chapters on expert elicitation of parameters of multinomial models; the advantages of using performance weighting by advancing the “random expert” hypothesis; expert elicitation for specific graphical models; modelling dependencies between experts’ assessments within a Bayesian framework; preventive maintenance optimization in a Bayesian framework; eliciting life time distributions to parametrize a Dirichlet process; and on an adversarial risk analysis approach for structured expert judgment studies. The second part includes Roger Cooke’s oration from 1995 on taking up his chair at Delft University of Technology; one of the editors reflections on the early decade of the Classical Model development and use; a current overview of the theory of the Classical Model, providing a deep and comprehensive perspective on its foundations and its application; and an interview with Roger Cooke. The third part starts with an interview with Professor Dame Anne Glover, who served as the Chief Scientific Advisor to the President of the European Commission. It then presents chapters on the characteristics of good elicitations by reviewing those advocated and applied; the design and development of a training course for SEJ; and on specific experiences with SEJ protocols with the intention of presenting the challenges and insights collected during these journeys. Finally, the fourth (and largest) part begins with some reflections from Willy Aspinall on his many experiences in applying the Classical Model in several application domains; it continues with related reflections on imperfect elicitations; and then it presents chapters with applications on medicines policy and management, supply chain cyber risk management, geo-political risks, terrorism and the risks facing businesses looking to internationalise.
Symbolic And Quantitative Approaches To Reasoning With Uncertainty
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Author : Sébastien Destercke
language : en
Publisher: Springer
Release Date : 2015-07-11
Symbolic And Quantitative Approaches To Reasoning With Uncertainty written by Sébastien Destercke and has been published by Springer this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2015-07-11 with Computers categories.
This book constitutes the refereed proceedings of the 13th European Conference on Symbolic and Quantitative Approaches to Reasoning with Uncertainty, ECSQARU 2015, held in Compiègne, France, in July 2015. The 49 revised full papers presented were carefully reviewed and selected from 69 submissions and cover topics on decision theory and preferences; argumentation; conditionals; game theory; belief update; classification; inconsistency; graphical models; Bayesian networks; belief functions; logic; and probabilistic graphical models for scalable data analytics. Papers come from researchers interested in advancing the technology and from practitioners using uncertainty techniques in real-world applications. The scope of the ECSQARU conferences encompasses fundamental issues, representation, inference, learning, and decision making in qualitative and numeric uncertainty paradigms.
Explanation And Cognition
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Author : Frank C. Keil
language : en
Publisher: MIT Press
Release Date : 2000
Explanation And Cognition written by Frank C. Keil and has been published by MIT Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2000 with Psychology categories.
These essays address basic questions about explanation: how do explanatory capacities develop, are there kinds of explanation do explanations correspond to domains of knowledge, why do we seek explanations, and how central are causes to explanation?
Trends In Lifestyle And Health
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Author : Laura V. Kinger
language : en
Publisher: Nova Publishers
Release Date : 2005
Trends In Lifestyle And Health written by Laura V. Kinger and has been published by Nova Publishers this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2005 with Health & Fitness categories.
Trends In Lifestyle & Health