The Effects On Growth Of Commodity Price Uncertainty And Shocks
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The Effects On Growth Of Commodity Price Uncertainty And Shocks
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Author : Jan Dehn
language : en
Publisher: World Bank Publications
Release Date : 2000
The Effects On Growth Of Commodity Price Uncertainty And Shocks written by Jan Dehn and has been published by World Bank Publications this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2000 with Agricultural prices categories.
The Effects On Growth Of Commodity Price Uncertainty And Shocks
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Author : Dehn
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2013
The Effects On Growth Of Commodity Price Uncertainty And Shocks written by Dehn and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013 with categories.
The Effects On Growth Of Commodity Price Uncertainty And Shocks
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Author : Jan Dehn
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2016
The Effects On Growth Of Commodity Price Uncertainty And Shocks written by Jan Dehn and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016 with categories.
Commodity export dependency confers ex post shocks and ex ante uncertainty upon producing countries. What reduces growth is not the prospect of volatile world prices, but the actual realization of negative shocks.Dehn estimates the effects on growth of commodity price shocks and uncertainty within an established empirical growth model. Ex post shocks and ex ante uncertainty have been treated in the empirical literature as if they were synonymous. But they are distinct concepts and it is both theoretically and empirically inappropriate to treat them as synonymous.He shows that the interaction between policy and aid is robust to the inclusion of variables capturing commodity price movements. More important, his approach departs in three ways from earlier empirical studies of the subject:- It deals with issues of endogeneity without incurring an excessive loss of efficiency.- It defines the dependent variable to allow an assessment of the longer-term implications of temporary trade shocks.- It imposes no priors on how commodity price movements affect growth, but compares and contrasts a range of competing shock and uncertainty specifications.Dehn resolves the disagreement about the long-run effect of positive shocks on growth, finding that positive shocks have no long-run impact on growth (that windfalls from trade shocks do not translate into sustainable increases in income).He shows that negative shocks have large, highly significant, and negative effects on growth, but that commodity price uncertainty does not affect growth.This paper - a product of Rural Development, Development Research Group - is part of a larger effort in the group to analyze the impact of commodity price risks on developing economies. The author may be contacted at [email protected].
Methods To Analyse Agricultural Commodity Price Volatility
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Author : Isabelle Piot-Lepetit
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2011-06-10
Methods To Analyse Agricultural Commodity Price Volatility written by Isabelle Piot-Lepetit and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2011-06-10 with Business & Economics categories.
This book examines the issue of price volatility in agricultural commodities markets and how this phenomenon has evolved in recent years. The factors underlying the price spike of 2007-08 appear to be global and macroeconomic in nature, including the rapid growth in demand by developing countries, the international financial crisis, and exchange rate movements. Some of these factors are new, appearing as influences on price volatility only in the last decade. Although volatility has always been a feature of agricultural commodity markets, the evidence suggests that volatility has increased in certain commodity markets. A growing problem is that agricultural price shocks and volatility disrupt agricultural markets, economic incentives and incomes. With increased globalization and integration of financial and energy markets with agricultural commodity markets, the relationships between markets are expanding and becoming more complex. When a crisis such as a regional drought, food safety scare or a financial crisis hits a particular market, policy-makers often do not know the extent to which it will impact on other markets and affect producer, consumer and trader decisions. Including contributions from experts at the World Bank, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, the USDA, and the European Commission, the research developed throughout the chapters of this book is based on current methodologies that can be used to analyze price volatility and provide directions for understanding this volatility and the development of new agricultural policies. The book highlights the challenges facing policy makers in dealing with the changing nature of agricultural commodities markets, and offers recommendations for anticipating price movements and managing their consequences. It will be a practical guide for both present and future policy-makers in deciding on potential price-stabilizing interventions, and will also serve as a useful resource for researchers and students in agricultural economics.
The Impact Of Commodity Price Changes On Rural Households
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Author :
language : en
Publisher: World Bank Publications
Release Date : 2006
The Impact Of Commodity Price Changes On Rural Households written by and has been published by World Bank Publications this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2006 with Coffee categories.
Policies and external shocks affecting agriculture, the main source of income for rural households, can be expected to have a significant impact on poverty. The authors study the case of Uganda. Throughout the 1990s, more than 90 percent of its poor lived in rural areas and, during the same period, large international price fluctuations as well as an extensive domestic deregulation affected the coffee sector, its main source of export revenues. Using data from three household surveys covering the 1990s, the authors confirm a strong correlation between changes in coffee prices (in a liberalized market) and poverty reduction. This is highlighted by comparing the performance of different households grouped according to their dependence on coffee farming. Regression analysis (based on pooled data from the three surveys) of consumption expenditure on coffee-related variables, other controls, and time-fixed effects corroborates that the mentioned correlation is not spurious. The authors also find that while both poor and rich farmers enter the coffee sector, the price boom benefits the poorer households relatively more, whereas the liberalization seems to create more opportunities for richer farmers. Finally, notwithstanding the importance of the coffee price boom, the agricultural policy framework and the thorough structural reforms in which the coffee market liberalization was embedded have certainly played a role in triggering overall agricultural growth. These factors appear to matter especially in the second half of the 1990s when prices went down but poverty reduction continued.
Managing Economic Volatility And Crises
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Author : Joshua Aizenman
language : en
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Release Date : 2005-10-03
Managing Economic Volatility And Crises written by Joshua Aizenman and has been published by Cambridge University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2005-10-03 with Business & Economics categories.
Economic volatility has come into its own after being treated for decades as a secondary phenomenon in the business cycle literature. This evolution has been driven by the recognition that non-linearities, long buried by the economist's penchant for linearity, magnify the negative effects of volatility on long-run growth and inequality, especially in poor countries. This collection organizes empirical and policy results for economists and development policy practitioners into four parts: basic features, including the impact of volatility on growth and poverty; commodity price volatility; the financial sector's dual role as an absorber and amplifier of shocks; and the management and prevention of macroeconomic crises. The latter section includes a cross-country study, case studies on Argentina and Russia, and lessons from the debt default episodes of the 1980s and 1990s.
Annual World Bank Conference On Development Economics 2006
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Author : François Bourguignon
language : en
Publisher: World Bank Publications
Release Date : 2006-01-01
Annual World Bank Conference On Development Economics 2006 written by François Bourguignon and has been published by World Bank Publications this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2006-01-01 with Business & Economics categories.
The Annual World Bank Conference on Development Economics (ABCDE) brings together the world's leading scholars and development practitioners for a lively debate on state-of-the-art thinking in development policy and the implications for the global economy. The 17th conference was held in Dakar, Senegal, on January 27, 2005. The theme of the conference was growth and integration, which was divided into five topics: growth and integration, financial reforms, economic development, trade and development, and investment climate.
The Economics And Finance Of Commodity Price Shocks
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Author : Mikidadu Mohammed
language : en
Publisher: Routledge
Release Date : 2021-11-25
The Economics And Finance Of Commodity Price Shocks written by Mikidadu Mohammed and has been published by Routledge this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021-11-25 with Business & Economics categories.
The behaviour of commodity prices never ceases to marvel economists, financial analysts, industry experts, and policymakers. Unexpected swings in commodity prices used to occur infrequently but have now become a permanent feature of global commodity markets. This book is about modelling commodity price shocks. It is intended to provide insights into the theoretical, conceptual, and empirical modelling of the underlying causes of global commodity price shocks. Three main objectives motivated the writing of this book. First, to provide a variety of modelling frameworks for documenting the frequency and intensity of commodity price shocks. Second, to evaluate existing approaches used for forecasting large movements in future commodity prices. Third, to cover a wide range and aspects of global commodities including currencies, rare–hard–lustrous transition metals, agricultural commodities, energy, and health pandemics. Some attempts have already been made towards modelling commodity price shocks. However, most tend to narrowly focus on a subset of commodity markets, i.e., agricultural commodities market and/or the energy market. In this book, the author moves the needle forward by operationalizing different models, which allow researchers to identify the underlying causes and effects of commodity price shocks. Readers also learn about different commodity price forecasting models. The author presents the topics to readers assuming less prior or specialist knowledge. Thus, the book is accessible to industry analysts, researchers, undergraduate and graduate students in economics and financial economics, academic and professional economists, investors, and financial professionals working in different sectors of the commodity markets. Another advantage of the book’s approach is that readers are not only exposed to several innovative modelling techniques to add to their modelling toolbox but are also exposed to diverse empirical applications of the techniques presented.
Annual World Bank Conference On Development Economics 2000
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Author : Boris Pleskovic
language : en
Publisher: World Bank Publications
Release Date : 2001
Annual World Bank Conference On Development Economics 2000 written by Boris Pleskovic and has been published by World Bank Publications this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2001 with Political Science categories.
Annotation This 12th Annual World Bank Conference on Development Economics focuses mainly on four areas: new development thinking, crises and recovery, corporate governance and restructuring, and social security including public and private savings.
Agricultural Trade Liberalization And The Least Developed Countries
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Author : Niek Koning
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2007-05-07
Agricultural Trade Liberalization And The Least Developed Countries written by Niek Koning and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2007-05-07 with Technology & Engineering categories.
Developing countries as a group stand to gain very substantially from trade reform in agricultural commodities. Agricultural Trade Liberalization and the Least Developed Countries is the first book to address important questions relating to this subject. The authors are world renowned experts on international trade and development and they address a very important and timely issue.