The Logic Of Intelligence Analysis
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The Logic Of Intelligence Analysis
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Author : Karl Spielmann
language : en
Publisher: Routledge
Release Date : 2018-06-12
The Logic Of Intelligence Analysis written by Karl Spielmann and has been published by Routledge this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018-06-12 with Political Science categories.
This book discusses the application of hypothesis testing to the practice of intelligence analysis. By drawing on longstanding procedures of scientific method, particularly hypothesis testing, this book strongly critiques standard intelligence analytic practices. It shows these practices to be inadequate, as they are illogical in terms of what formal philosophy says any intelligence analysts can realistically be expected to know, and for the future when analysts will face pressures to adapt to digital age modeling techniques. The methodology focuses on identifying and remedying analytic errors caused by analyst cognitive biases and by foreign denial and deception. To demonstrate that it is a practical tool, it walks analysts through a case study, step by step, to show how its hypothesis testing can be implemented. It also invites a comparative test in the real world with any other intelligence methodologies to assess its strengths and weaknesses in predicting the outcome of an actual "live" intelligence issue. This book will be of much interest to students of intelligence studies, public policy and national security, as well as practitioners.
Psychology Of Intelligence Analysis
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Author : Richards J Heuer
language : en
Publisher: Pickle Partners Publishing
Release Date : 2020-03-05
Psychology Of Intelligence Analysis written by Richards J Heuer and has been published by Pickle Partners Publishing this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020-03-05 with History categories.
In this seminal work, published by the C.I.A. itself, produced by Intelligence veteran Richards Heuer discusses three pivotal points. First, human minds are ill-equipped ("poorly wired") to cope effectively with both inherent and induced uncertainty. Second, increased knowledge of our inherent biases tends to be of little assistance to the analyst. And lastly, tools and techniques that apply higher levels of critical thinking can substantially improve analysis on complex problems.
Psychology Of Intelligence Analysis
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Author : Richards J. Heuer
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1999
Psychology Of Intelligence Analysis written by Richards J. Heuer and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1999 with Human information processing categories.
Critical Thinking And Intelligence Analysis
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Author : David T. Moore
language : en
Publisher: DIANE Publishing
Release Date : 2010-10
Critical Thinking And Intelligence Analysis written by David T. Moore and has been published by DIANE Publishing this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2010-10 with Political Science categories.
Contents: (1) How Do People Reason?; (2) What is Critical Thinking?; (3) What Can Be Learned from the Past?: Thinking Critically about Cuba: Deploying the Missiles; Assessing the Implications; Between Dogmatism and Refutation; Lacking: Disconfirmation; The Roles of Critical Thinking in the Cuban Crisis; Winners and Losers: The Crisis in Context; Ten Years Later, They Meet Again; Judgment; (4) How Can Intelligence Analysts Employ Critical Thinking?; (5) How Can Intelligence Analysts be Taught to Think Critically?; (6) How Does Critical Thinking Transform?; (7) What Other Points of View Exist?; (8) What Does the Future Hold?; (9) NSA¿s Critical Thinking and Structured Analysis Class Syllabus. Charts and tables.
Reasoning For Intelligence Analysts
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Author : Noel Hendrickson
language : en
Publisher: Rowman & Littlefield
Release Date : 2018-03-29
Reasoning For Intelligence Analysts written by Noel Hendrickson and has been published by Rowman & Littlefield this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018-03-29 with Political Science categories.
The goal of Reasoning for Intelligence Analysts is to address the three distinct dimensions of an analyst’s thinking: the person of the analyst (their traits), the processes they use (their techniques), and the problems they face (their targets). Based on a decade of academic research and university teaching in a program for aspiring intelligence analysts, this multidimensional approach will help the reader move beyond the traditional boundaries of accumulating knowledge or critical thinking with techniques to assess the unique targets of reasoning in the information age. This approach is not just a set of techniques, but covers all elements of reasoning by discussing the personal, procedural, and problem-specific aspects. It also addresses key challenges, such as uncertain data, irrelevant or misleading information, indeterminate outcomes, and significance for clients through an extensive examination of hypothesis development, causal analysis, futures exploration, and strategy assessment. Both critical and creative thinking, which are essential to reasoning in intelligence, are integrated throughout. Structured around independently readable chapters, this text offers a systematic approach to reasoning a long with an extensive toolkit that will serve the needs of both students and intelligence professionals.
Structured Analytic Techniques For Intelligence Analysis
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Author : Richards J. Heuer
language : en
Publisher: CQ Press
Release Date : 2011
Structured Analytic Techniques For Intelligence Analysis written by Richards J. Heuer and has been published by CQ Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2011 with Political Science categories.
This book takes the relatively new concept of structured analytic techniques and defines its place in a taxonomy of analytic methods. It describes 50 techniques divided into eight categories, each corresponding. to a book chapter. These techniques are especially needed in the field of intelligence analysis where analysts typically deal with incomplete, ambiguous and sometimes deceptive information.
Intelligence Analysis Fundamentals
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Author : Godfrey Garner
language : en
Publisher: CRC Press
Release Date : 2018-08-06
Intelligence Analysis Fundamentals written by Godfrey Garner and has been published by CRC Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018-08-06 with Business & Economics categories.
There are a limited number of intelligence analysis books available on the market. Intelligence Analysis Fundamentals is an introductory, accessible text for college level undergraduate and graduate level courses. While the principles outlined in the book largely follow military intelligence terminology and practice, concepts are presented to correlate with intelligence gathering and analysis performed in law enforcement, homeland security, and corporate and business security roles. Most of the existing texts on intelligence gathering and analysis focus on specific types of intelligence such as ‘target centric’ intelligence, and many of these, detail information from a position of prior knowledge. In other words, they are most valuable to the consumer who has a working-level knowledge of the subject. The book is general enough in nature that a lay student—interested in pursuing a career in intelligence, Homeland Security, or other related areas of law enforcement—will benefit from it. No prior knowledge of intelligence analysis, functions, or operations is assumed. Chapters illustrate methods and techniques that, over the years, have consistently demonstrate results, superior to those achieved with other means. Chapters describe such analytical methods that are most widely used in the intelligence community and serve as recognized standards and benchmarks in the practice of intelligence analysis. All techniques have been selected for inclusion for their specific application to homeland security, criminal investigations, and intelligence operations. Uses numerous hands-on activities—that can easily be modified by instructors to be more or less challenging depending on the course level—to reinforce concepts As current and active members of the intelligence community, the authors draw on their decades of experience in intelligence to offer real-world examples to illustrate concepts All methodologies reflect the latest trends in the intelligence communities assessment, analysis, and reporting processes with all presented being open source, non-classified information As such, the non-sensitive information presented is appropriate—and methods applicable—for use for education and training overseas and internationally Military-style collection and analysis methods are the primary ones presented, but all are directly correlated intelligence to current concepts, functions and practices within Homeland Security and the law communities Covers the counterterrorism environment where joint operations and investigative efforts combine military, private sector, and law enforcement action and information sharing The book will be a welcome addition to the body of literature available and a widely used reference for professionals and students alike.
Intelligence Analysis
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Author : National Research Council
language : en
Publisher: National Academies Press
Release Date : 2011-04-08
Intelligence Analysis written by National Research Council and has been published by National Academies Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2011-04-08 with Social Science categories.
The U.S. intelligence community (IC) is a complex human enterprise whose success depends on how well the people in it perform their work. Although often aided by sophisticated technologies, these people ultimately rely on their own intellect to identify, synthesize, and communicate the information on which the nation's security depends. The IC's success depends on having trained, motivated, and thoughtful people working within organizations able to understand, value, and coordinate their capabilities. Intelligence Analysis provides up-to-date scientific guidance for the intelligence community (IC) so that it might improve individual and group judgments, communication between analysts, and analytic processes. The papers in this volume provide the detailed evidentiary base for the National Research Council's report, Intelligence Analysis for Tomorrow: Advances from the Behavioral and Social Sciences. The opening chapter focuses on the structure, missions, operations, and characteristics of the IC while the following 12 papers provide in-depth reviews of key topics in three areas: analytic methods, analysts, and organizations. Informed by the IC's unique missions and constraints, each paper documents the latest advancements of the relevant science and is a stand-alone resource for the IC's leadership and workforce. The collection allows readers to focus on one area of interest (analytic methods, analysts, or organizations) or even one particular aspect of a category. As a collection, the volume provides a broad perspective of the issues involved in making difficult decisions, which is at the heart of intelligence analysis.
Structured Analytic Techniques For Intelligence Analysis
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Author : Richards J. Heuer Jr.
language : en
Publisher: CQ Press
Release Date : 2014-05-28
Structured Analytic Techniques For Intelligence Analysis written by Richards J. Heuer Jr. and has been published by CQ Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014-05-28 with Political Science categories.
In this Second Edition of Structured Analytic Techniques for Intelligence Analysis, authors Richards J. Heuer Jr. and Randolph H. Pherson showcase fifty-five structured analytic techniques—five new to this edition—that represent the most current best practices in intelligence, law enforcement, homeland security, and business analysis.
Psychology Of Intelligence Analysis
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Author : Richards J. Heuer
language : en
Publisher: Central Intelligence Agency
Release Date : 1999
Psychology Of Intelligence Analysis written by Richards J. Heuer and has been published by Central Intelligence Agency this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1999 with Cognition categories.
Written to help intelligence analysts achieve a higher level of performance. Shows how people make judgments based on incomplete and ambiguous information. Offers simple tools and concepts for improving analytical skills.