The Logic Of Intelligence Analysis
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The Logic Of Intelligence Analysis
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Author : Karl Spielmann
language : en
Publisher: Routledge
Release Date : 2018-06-12
The Logic Of Intelligence Analysis written by Karl Spielmann and has been published by Routledge this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018-06-12 with Political Science categories.
This book discusses the application of hypothesis testing to the practice of intelligence analysis. By drawing on longstanding procedures of scientific method, particularly hypothesis testing, this book strongly critiques standard intelligence analytic practices. It shows these practices to be inadequate, as they are illogical in terms of what formal philosophy says any intelligence analysts can realistically be expected to know, and for the future when analysts will face pressures to adapt to digital age modeling techniques. The methodology focuses on identifying and remedying analytic errors caused by analyst cognitive biases and by foreign denial and deception. To demonstrate that it is a practical tool, it walks analysts through a case study, step by step, to show how its hypothesis testing can be implemented. It also invites a comparative test in the real world with any other intelligence methodologies to assess its strengths and weaknesses in predicting the outcome of an actual "live" intelligence issue. This book will be of much interest to students of intelligence studies, public policy and national security, as well as practitioners.
Reasoning For Intelligence Analysts
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Author : Noel Hendrickson
language : en
Publisher: Bloomsbury Publishing PLC
Release Date : 2018-03-29
Reasoning For Intelligence Analysts written by Noel Hendrickson and has been published by Bloomsbury Publishing PLC this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018-03-29 with Political Science categories.
The goal of Reasoning for Intelligence Analysts is to address the three distinct dimensions of an analyst’s thinking: the person of the analyst (their traits), the processes they use (their techniques), and the problems they face (their targets). Based on a decade of academic research and university teaching in a program for aspiring intelligence analysts, this multidimensional approach will help the reader move beyond the traditional boundaries of accumulating knowledge or critical thinking with techniques to assess the unique targets of reasoning in the information age. This approach is not just a set of techniques, but covers all elements of reasoning by discussing the personal, procedural, and problem-specific aspects. It also addresses key challenges, such as uncertain data, irrelevant or misleading information, indeterminate outcomes, and significance for clients through an extensive examination of hypothesis development, causal analysis, futures exploration, and strategy assessment. Both critical and creative thinking, which are essential to reasoning in intelligence, are integrated throughout. Structured around independently readable chapters, this text offers a systematic approach to reasoning a long with an extensive toolkit that will serve the needs of both students and intelligence professionals.
Psychology Of Intelligence Analysis
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Author : Richards J Heuer
language : en
Publisher: Pickle Partners Publishing
Release Date : 2020-03-05
Psychology Of Intelligence Analysis written by Richards J Heuer and has been published by Pickle Partners Publishing this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020-03-05 with History categories.
In this seminal work, published by the C.I.A. itself, produced by Intelligence veteran Richards Heuer discusses three pivotal points. First, human minds are ill-equipped ("poorly wired") to cope effectively with both inherent and induced uncertainty. Second, increased knowledge of our inherent biases tends to be of little assistance to the analyst. And lastly, tools and techniques that apply higher levels of critical thinking can substantially improve analysis on complex problems.
Critical Thinking And Intelligence Analysis
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Author : David T. Moore
language : en
Publisher: DIANE Publishing
Release Date : 2010-10
Critical Thinking And Intelligence Analysis written by David T. Moore and has been published by DIANE Publishing this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2010-10 with Political Science categories.
Contents: (1) How Do People Reason?; (2) What is Critical Thinking?; (3) What Can Be Learned from the Past?: Thinking Critically about Cuba: Deploying the Missiles; Assessing the Implications; Between Dogmatism and Refutation; Lacking: Disconfirmation; The Roles of Critical Thinking in the Cuban Crisis; Winners and Losers: The Crisis in Context; Ten Years Later, They Meet Again; Judgment; (4) How Can Intelligence Analysts Employ Critical Thinking?; (5) How Can Intelligence Analysts be Taught to Think Critically?; (6) How Does Critical Thinking Transform?; (7) What Other Points of View Exist?; (8) What Does the Future Hold?; (9) NSA¿s Critical Thinking and Structured Analysis Class Syllabus. Charts and tables.
Rigid Flexibility
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Author : Pei Wang
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2006-09-01
Rigid Flexibility written by Pei Wang and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2006-09-01 with Computers categories.
This book is the most comprehensive description of the decades-long Non-Axiomatic Reasoning System (NARS) project, including its philosophical foundation, methodological consideration, conceptual design details, implications in the related fields, and its similarities and differences to many related works in cognitive science. While most current works in Artificial Intelligence (AI) focus on individual aspects of intelligence and cognition, NARS is designed and developed to attack the AI problem as a whole.
Cognitive Bias In Intelligence Analysis
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Author : Whitesmith Martha Whitesmith
language : en
Publisher: Edinburgh University Press
Release Date : 2020-09-21
Cognitive Bias In Intelligence Analysis written by Whitesmith Martha Whitesmith and has been published by Edinburgh University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020-09-21 with Political Science categories.
Tests whether the analysis of competing hypotheses reduces cognitive bias, and proposes a more effective approachReveals that a key element of current training provided to the UK and US intelligence communities (and likely all 5-EYES and several European agencies) does not have a proven ability to mitigate cognitive biasesDemonstrates that judging the credibility of information from human sources means that intelligence analysis faces greater complexity and cognitive strain than non-intelligence analysisExplains the underlying causes cognitive biases, based on meta-analyses of existing researchShows that identifying the ideal conditions for intelligence analysis is a more effective way of reducing the risk of cognitive bias than the use of ACHRecent high-profile intelligence failures - from 9/11 to the 2003 Iraq war - prove that cognitive bias in intelligence analysis can have catastrophic consequences. This book critiques the reliance of Western intelligence agencies on the use of a method for intelligence analysis developed by the CIA in the 1990s, the Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH). The author puts ACH to the test in an experimental setting against two key cognitive biases with unique empirical research facilitated by UK's Professional Heads of Intelligence Analysis unit at the Cabinet Office, and finds that the theoretical basis of the ACH method is significantly flawed. Combining the insight of a practitioner with over 11 years of experience in intelligence with both philosophical theory and experimental research, the author proposes an alternative approach to mitigating cognitive bias that focuses on creating the optimum environment for analysis, challenging current leading theories.
Artificial General Intelligence
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Author : Ben Goertzel
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2007-01-17
Artificial General Intelligence written by Ben Goertzel and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2007-01-17 with Computers categories.
“Only a small community has concentratedon general intelligence. No one has tried to make a thinking machine . . . The bottom line is that we really haven’t progressed too far toward a truly intelligent machine. We have collections of dumb specialists in small domains; the true majesty of general intelligence still awaits our attack. . . . We have got to get back to the deepest questions of AI and general intelligence. . . ” –MarvinMinsky as interviewed in Hal’s Legacy, edited by David Stork, 2000. Our goal in creating this edited volume has been to ?ll an apparent gap in the scienti?c literature, by providing a coherent presentation of a body of contemporary research that, in spite of its integral importance, has hitherto kept a very low pro?le within the scienti?c and intellectual community. This body of work has not been given a name before; in this book we christen it “Arti?cial General Intelligence” (AGI). What distinguishes AGI work from run-of-the-mill “arti?cial intelligence” research is that it is explicitly focused on engineering general intelligence in the short term. We have been active researchers in the AGI ?eld for many years, and it has been a pleasure to gather together papers from our colleagues working on related ideas from their own perspectives. In the Introduction we give a conceptual overview of the AGI ?eld, and also summarize and interrelate the key ideas of the papers in the subsequent chapters.
Intelligence And Crime Analysis
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Author : David Cariens
language : en
Publisher: Lulu.com
Release Date : 2011
Intelligence And Crime Analysis written by David Cariens and has been published by Lulu.com this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2011 with Self-Help categories.
"Critical Thinking through Writing" is an essential book for all intelligence officers, analysts, and managers who want their intelligence to be read and understood. Drawing on his extensive CIA and teaching experience, David Cariens offers salient lessons in writing, critical thinking, and ethics. The English language is complex and this book offers practical instruction designed specifically for intelligence personnel. The writing and analysis exercises are invaluable and will improve the skills of any analyst, regardless of their prior experience. With the knowledge from this book, intelligence personnel will ensure their message is clear and concise. --Aaron Clack, Division Criminal Analysis Section Manager, Royal Canadian Mounted Police
Analyzing Intelligence
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Author : Roger Z. George
language : en
Publisher: Georgetown University Press
Release Date : 2008-04-09
Analyzing Intelligence written by Roger Z. George and has been published by Georgetown University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2008-04-09 with Political Science categories.
Drawing on the individual and collective experience of recognized intelligence experts and scholars in the field, Analyzing Intelligence provides the first comprehensive assessment of the state of intelligence analysis since 9/11. Its in-depth and balanced evaluation of more than fifty years of U.S. analysis includes a critique of why it has under-performed at times. It provides insights regarding the enduring obstacles as well as new challenges of analysis in the post-9/11 world, and suggests innovative ideas for improved analytical methods, training, and structured approaches. The book's six sections present a coherent plan for improving analysis. Early chapters examine how intelligence analysis has evolved since its origins in the mid-20th century, focusing on traditions, culture, successes, and failures. The middle sections examine how analysis supports the most senior national security and military policymakers and strategists, and how analysts must deal with the perennial challenges of collection, politicization, analytical bias, knowledge building and denial and deception. The final sections of the book propose new ways to address enduring issues in warning analysis, methodology (or "analytical tradecraft") and emerging analytic issues like homeland defense. The book suggests new forms of analytic collaboration in a global intelligence environment, and imperatives for the development of a new profession of intelligence analysis. Analyzing Intelligence is written for the national security expert who needs to understand the role of intelligence and its strengths and weaknesses. Practicing and future analysts will also find that its attention to the enduring challenges provides useful lessons-learned to guide their own efforts. The innovations section will provoke senior intelligence managers to consider major changes in the way analysis is currently organized and conducted, and the way that analysts are trained and perform.
Cases In Intelligence Analysis
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Author : Sarah Miller Beebe
language : en
Publisher: CQ Press
Release Date : 2014-04-28
Cases In Intelligence Analysis written by Sarah Miller Beebe and has been published by CQ Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014-04-28 with Political Science categories.
In their Second Edition of Cases in Intelligence Analysis: Structured Analytic Techniques in Action, accomplished instructors and intelligence practitioners Sarah Miller Beebe and Randolph H. Pherson offer robust, class-tested cases studies of events in foreign intelligence, counterintelligence, terrorism, homeland security, law enforcement, and decision-making support. Designed to give analysts-in-training an opportunity to apply structured analytic techniques and tackle real-life problems, each turnkey case delivers a captivating narrative, discussion questions, recommended readings, and a series of engaging analytic exercises.