Thinking In Bets
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Thinking In Bets
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Author : Annie Duke
language : en
Publisher: Penguin
Release Date : 2018-02-06
Thinking In Bets written by Annie Duke and has been published by Penguin this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018-02-06 with Business & Economics categories.
Wall Street Journal bestseller! Poker champion turned business consultant Annie Duke teaches you how to get comfortable with uncertainty and make better decisions as a result. In Super Bowl XLIX, Seahawks coach Pete Carroll made one of the most controversial calls in football history: With 26 seconds remaining, and trailing by four at the Patriots' one-yard line, he called for a pass instead of a hand off to his star running back. The pass was intercepted and the Seahawks lost. Critics called it the dumbest play in history. But was the call really that bad? Or did Carroll actually make a great move that was ruined by bad luck? Even the best decision doesn't yield the best outcome every time. There's always an element of luck that you can't control, and there is always information that is hidden from view. So the key to long-term success (and avoiding worrying yourself to death) is to think in bets: How sure am I? What are the possible ways things could turn out? What decision has the highest odds of success? Did I land in the unlucky 10% on the strategy that works 90% of the time? Or is my success attributable to dumb luck rather than great decision making? Annie Duke, a former World Series of Poker champion turned business consultant, draws on examples from business, sports, politics, and (of course) poker to share tools anyone can use to embrace uncertainty and make better decisions. For most people, it's difficult to say "I'm not sure" in a world that values and, even, rewards the appearance of certainty. But professional poker players are comfortable with the fact that great decisions don't always lead to great outcomes and bad decisions don't always lead to bad outcomes. By shifting your thinking from a need for certainty to a goal of accurately assessing what you know and what you don't, you'll be less vulnerable to reactive emotions, knee-jerk biases, and destructive habits in your decision making. You'll become more confident, calm, compassionate and successful in the long run.
How To Decide
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Author : Annie Duke
language : en
Publisher: Penguin
Release Date : 2020-10-13
How To Decide written by Annie Duke and has been published by Penguin this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020-10-13 with Business & Economics categories.
Through a blend of compelling exercises, illustrations, and stories, the bestselling author of Thinking in Bets will train you to combat your own biases, address your weaknesses, and help you become a better and more confident decision-maker. What do you do when you're faced with a big decision? If you're like most people, you probably make a pro and con list, spend a lot of time obsessing about decisions that didn't work out, get caught in analysis paralysis, endlessly seek other people's opinions to find just that little bit of extra information that might make you sure, and finally go with your gut. What if there was a better way to make quality decisions so you can think clearly, feel more confident, second-guess yourself less, and ultimately be more decisive and be more productive? Making good decisions doesn't have to be a series of endless guesswork. Rather, it's a teachable skill that anyone can sharpen. In How to Decide, bestselling author Annie Duke and former professional poker player lays out a series of tools anyone can use to make better decisions. You'll learn: • To identify and dismantle hidden biases. • To extract the highest quality feedback from those whose advice you seek. • To more accurately identify the influence of luck in the outcome of your decisions. • When to decide fast, when to decide slow, and when to decide in advance. • To make decisions that more effectively help you to realize your goals and live your values. Through interactive exercises and engaging thought experiments, this book helps you analyze key decisions you've made in the past and troubleshoot those you're making in the future. Whether you're picking investments, evaluating a job offer, or trying to figure out your romantic life, How to Decide is the key to happier outcomes and fewer regrets.
Quit
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Author : Annie Duke
language : en
Publisher: Penguin
Release Date : 2022-10-04
Quit written by Annie Duke and has been published by Penguin this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2022-10-04 with Business & Economics categories.
From the bestselling author of Thinking in Bets comes a toolkit for mastering the skill of quitting to achieve greater success Business leaders, with millions of dollars down the drain, struggle to abandon a new app or product that just isn’t working. Governments, caught in a hopeless conflict, believe that the next tactic will finally be the one that wins the war. And in our own lives, we persist in relationships or careers that no longer serve us. Why? According to Annie Duke, in the face of tough decisions, we’re terrible quitters. And that is significantly holding us back. In Quit, Duke teaches you how to get good at quitting. Drawing on stories from elite athletes like Mount Everest climbers, founders of leading companies like Stewart Butterfield, the CEO of Slack, and top entertainers like Dave Chappelle, Duke explains why quitting is integral to success, as well as strategies for determining when to hold em, and when to fold em, that will save you time, energy, and money. You’ll learn: How the paradox of quitting influences decision making: If you quit on time, you will feel you quit early What forces work against good quitting behavior, such as escalation commitment, desire for certainty, and status quo bias How to think in expected value in order to make better decisions, as well as other best practices, such as increasing flexibility in goal-setting, establishing “quitting contracts,” anticipating optionality, and conducting premortems and backcasts Whether you’re facing a make-or-break business decision or life-altering personal choice, mastering the skill of quitting will help you make the best next move.
Thinking In Bets
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Author : Annie Duke
language : en
Publisher: Penguin
Release Date : 2018-02-06
Thinking In Bets written by Annie Duke and has been published by Penguin this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018-02-06 with Business & Economics categories.
NATIONAL BESTSELLER • Poker champion turned business consultant Annie Duke teaches you how to get comfortable with uncertainty and make better decisions as a result in “the ultimate guide to thinking about risk” (Charles Duhigg, author of The Power of Habit). “A big favorite among investors these days.”—The New York Times “Outstanding.”—Jason Zweig, The Wall Street Journal In Super Bowl XLIX, Seahawks coach Pete Carroll made one of the most controversial calls in football history: With 26 seconds remaining, and trailing by four at the Patriots' one-yard line, he called for a pass instead of a hand off to his star running back. The pass was intercepted and the Seahawks lost. Critics called it the dumbest play in history. But was the call really that bad? Or did Carroll actually make a great move that was ruined by bad luck? Even the best decision doesn't yield the best outcome every time. There's always an element of luck that you can't control, and there is always information that is hidden from view. So the key to long-term success (and avoiding worrying yourself to death) is to think in bets: How sure am I? What are the possible ways things could turn out? What decision has the highest odds of success? Did I land in the unlucky 10% on the strategy that works 90% of the time? Or is my success attributable to dumb luck rather than great decision making? Annie Duke, a former World Series of Poker champion turned business consultant, draws on examples from business, sports, politics, and (of course) poker to share tools anyone can use to embrace uncertainty and make better decisions. For most people, it's difficult to say "I'm not sure" in a world that values and, even, rewards the appearance of certainty. But professional poker players are comfortable with the fact that great decisions don't always lead to great outcomes and bad decisions don't always lead to bad outcomes. By shifting your thinking from a need for certainty to a goal of accurately assessing what you know and what you don't, you'll be less vulnerable to reactive emotions, knee-jerk biases, and destructive habits in your decision making. You'll become more confident, calm, compassionate and successful in the long run.
Little Bets
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Author : Peter Sims
language : en
Publisher: Simon and Schuster
Release Date : 2011-04-19
Little Bets written by Peter Sims and has been published by Simon and Schuster this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2011-04-19 with Business & Economics categories.
“An enthusiastic, example-rich argument for innovating in a particular way—by deliberately experimenting and taking small exploratory steps in novel directions. Light, bright, and packed with tidy anecdotes” (The Wall Street Journal). What do Apple CEO Steve Jobs, comedian Chris Rock, prize-winning architect Frank Gehry, and the story developers at Pixar films all have in common? Bestselling author Peter Sims found that rather than start with a big idea or plan a whole project in advance, they make a methodical series of little bets, learning critical information from lots of little failures and from small but significant wins. Reporting on a fascinating range of research, from the psychology of creative blocks to the influential field of design thinking, Sims offers engaging and illuminating accounts of breakthrough innovators at work, and a whole new way of thinking about how to navigate uncertain situations and unleash our untapped creative powers.
Understanding Uncertainty
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Author : Dennis V. Lindley
language : en
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Release Date : 2006-08-28
Understanding Uncertainty written by Dennis V. Lindley and has been published by John Wiley & Sons this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2006-08-28 with Mathematics categories.
A lively and informal introduction to the role of uncertainty and probability in people's lives from an everyday perspective From television game shows and gambling techniques to weather forecasting and the financial markets, virtually every aspect of modern life involves situations in which the outcomes are uncertain and of varying qualities. But as noted statistician Dennis Lindley writes in this distinctive text, "We want you to face up to uncertainty, not hide it away under false concepts, but to understand it and, moreover, to use the recent discoveries so that you can act in the face of uncertainty more sensibly than would have been possible without the skill." Accessibly written at an elementary level, this outstanding text examines uncertainty in various everyday situations and introduces readers to three rules--craftily laid out in the book--that prove uncertainty can be handled with as much confidence as ordinary logic. Combining a concept of utility with probability, the book insightfully demonstrates how uncertainty can be measured and used in everyday life, especially in decision-making and science. With a focus on understanding and using probability calculations, Understanding Uncertainty demystifies probability and: * Explains in straightforward detail the logic of uncertainty, its truths, and its falsehoods * Explores what has been learned in the twentieth century about uncertainty * Provides a logical, sensible method for acting in the face of uncertainty * Presents vignettes of great discoveries made in the twentieth century * Shows readers how to discern if another person--whether a lawyer, politician, scientist, or journalist--is talking sense, posing the right questions, or obtaining sound answers Requiring only a basic understanding of mathematical concepts and operations, Understanding Uncertainty is useful as a text for all students who have probability or statistics as part of their course, even at the most introductory level.
The Net And The Butterfly
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Author : Olivia Fox Cabane
language : en
Publisher: Penguin
Release Date : 2017-02-07
The Net And The Butterfly written by Olivia Fox Cabane and has been published by Penguin this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017-02-07 with Business & Economics categories.
In The Charisma Myth, Olivia Fox Cabane offered a groundbreaking approach to becoming more charismatic. Now she teams up with Judah Pollack to reveal how anyone can train their brain to have more eureka insights. The creative mode in your brain is like a butterfly. It's beautiful and erratic, hard to catch and highly valued as a result. If you want to capture it, you need a net. Enter the executive mode, the task-oriented network in your brain that help you tie your shoes, run a meeting, or pitch a client. To succeed, you need both modes to work together--your inner butterfly to be active and free, but your inner net to be ready to spring at the right time and create that "aha!" moment. But is there any way to trigger these insights, beyond dumb luck? Thanks to recent neuroscience discoveries, we can now explain these breakthrough moments--and also induce them through a series of specific practices. It turns out there's a hidden pattern to all these seemingly random breakthrough ideas. From Achimedes' iconic moment in the bathtub to designer Adam Cheyer's idea for Siri, accidental breakthroughs throughout history share a common origin story. In this book, you will learn to master the skills that will transform your brain into a consistent generator of insights. Drawing on their extensive coaching and training practice with top Silicon Valley firms, Cabane and Pollack provide a step-by-step process for accessing the part of the brain that produces breakthroughs and systematically removing internal blocks. Their tactics range from simple to zany, such as: · Imagine an alternate universe where gravity doesn’t exist, and the social and legal rules that govern it. · Map Disney’s Pocahontas story onto James Cameron’s Avatar. · Rid yourself of imposter syndrome through mental exercises. · Literally change your perspective by climbing a tree. · Stimulate your butterfly mode by watching a foreign film without subtitles. By trying the exercises in this book, readers will emerge with a powerful new capacity for breakthrough thinking.
Betting Game
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Author : Heather M. O'Connor
language : en
Publisher: Orca Book Publishers
Release Date : 2015-10-20
Betting Game written by Heather M. O'Connor and has been published by Orca Book Publishers this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2015-10-20 with Juvenile Fiction categories.
Jack’s a star player on an elite soccer team along with his brother, Alex. The Lancers are on top of the league, even favored to win the National Championship. But the game’s about to change. A slick bookie wins Jack’s friendship and introduces him to illegal betting. Before long, Jack is hooked on the adrenaline rush, and early wins convince him that gambling could make him rich. Meanwhile, an ever-widening rift is forming between the two brothers. Suddenly, Jack’s “system” fails and his luck runs out. How could a few losses pile up to a gut-kicking ten grand? When he can’t pay, the bookie gives Jack one way out—throw the National Championship. But can he betray his brother, his team and himself? This short novel is a high-interest, low-reading level book for middle-grade readers who are building reading skills, want a quick read or say they don’t like to read!
Live On The Margin
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Author : Patrick Schulte
language : en
Publisher: bumfuzzle.com
Release Date : 2012-12-16
Live On The Margin written by Patrick Schulte and has been published by bumfuzzle.com this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-12-16 with Business & Economics categories.
What would you do if money were no longer a concern? Surf the best breaks, sail oceans, climb mountains, build schools in third-world countries, write a book, raise Peruvian fainting goats? What would you do if you didn't have to show up for work tomorrow morning? Making that dream happen-stepping into an unknowable future for a life of adventure takes courage, decisiveness, an unwavering belief in yourself, and the willingness to take 100%% responsibility for the outcome. Those happen to be the very same traits that define the successful trader. The skills you learn in pursuing your dream-through trading-might just remove money from the list of reasons you think that you can't fulfill it. This book is about more than trading and personal finance strategies-we propose an entirely new way to evaluate risk, in life as well as in finances. By taking the right risks and ignoring the imagined ones, you'll be paid with the one priceless commodity that is truly limited in your life-time.
101 Bets You Will Always Win
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Author : Richard Wiseman
language : en
Publisher: Macmillan + ORM
Release Date : 2016-09-27
101 Bets You Will Always Win written by Richard Wiseman and has been published by Macmillan + ORM this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016-09-27 with Games & Activities categories.
YouTube sensation, psychologist Richard Wiseman, shows you how to astound your friends with 101 Bets You Will Always Win Everyone loves a winner. Imagine being able to challenge anyone with seemingly impossible bets, safe in the knowledge that you will always win. Imagine no more. Richard Wiseman is a psychologist who has traveled the globe in search of the world's greatest bets and in "101 Bets You Will Always Win" he shows you how to use science, logic and a healthy dose of trickery always to be on the winning side of every bet you make. Using coins, dice, matchsticks and ordinary objects, you'll discover, among many other things, - how to balance a coin on the edge of a dollar bill - pick a cup up with a balloon - balance two forks and a matchstick on your fingertip - separate two glasses without touching them In explaining the bets, Wiseman also explains the science behind them making what at first seems mystifying as natural as the laws of gravity. Let YouTube sensation Richard Wiseman turn you into one of those smart people who can say "I'll bet I can..." and know that you'll never lose.