Uncertainty In Industrial Practice
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Uncertainty In Industrial Practice
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Author : Etienne de Rocquigny
language : en
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Release Date : 2008-09-15
Uncertainty In Industrial Practice written by Etienne de Rocquigny and has been published by John Wiley & Sons this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2008-09-15 with Mathematics categories.
Managing uncertainties in industrial systems is a daily challenge to ensure improved design, robust operation, accountable performance and responsive risk control. Authored by a leading European network of experts representing a cross section of industries, Uncertainty in Industrial Practice aims to provide a reference for the dissemination of uncertainty treatment in any type of industry. It is concerned with the quantification of uncertainties in the presence of data, model(s) and knowledge about the system, and offers a technical contribution to decision-making processes whilst acknowledging industrial constraints. The approach presented can be applied to a range of different business contexts, from research or early design through to certification or in-service processes. The authors aim to foster optimal trade-offs between literature-referenced methodologies and the simplified approaches often inevitable in practice, owing to data, time or budget limitations of technical decision-makers. Uncertainty in Industrial Practice: Features recent uncertainty case studies carried out in the nuclear, air & space, oil, mechanical and civil engineering industries set in a common methodological framework. Presents methods for organizing and treating uncertainties in a generic and prioritized perspective. Illustrates practical difficulties and solutions encountered according to the level of complexity, information available and regulatory and financial constraints. Discusses best practice in uncertainty modeling, propagation and sensitivity analysis through a variety of statistical and numerical methods. Reviews recent standards, references and available software, providing an essential resource for engineers and risk analysts in a wide variety of industries. This book provides a guide to dealing with quantitative uncertainty in engineering and modelling and is aimed at practitioners, including risk-industry regulators and academics wishing to develop industry-realistic methodologies.
Uncertainty Management For Robust Industrial Design In Aeronautics
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Author : Charles Hirsch
language : en
Publisher: Springer
Release Date : 2018-07-21
Uncertainty Management For Robust Industrial Design In Aeronautics written by Charles Hirsch and has been published by Springer this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018-07-21 with Technology & Engineering categories.
This book covers cutting-edge findings related to uncertainty quantification and optimization under uncertainties (i.e. robust and reliable optimization), with a special emphasis on aeronautics and turbomachinery, although not limited to these fields. It describes new methods for uncertainty quantification, such as non-intrusive polynomial chaos, collocation methods, perturbation methods, as well as adjoint based and multi-level Monte Carlo methods. It includes methods for characterization of most influential uncertainties, as well as formulations for robust and reliable design optimization. A distinctive element of the book is the unique collection of test cases with prescribed uncertainties, which are representative of the current engineering practice of the industrial consortium partners involved in UMRIDA, a level 1 collaborative project within the European Commission's Seventh Framework Programme (FP7). All developed methods are benchmarked against these industrial challenges. Moreover, the book includes a section dedicated to Best Practice Guidelines for uncertainty quantification and robust design optimization, summarizing the findings obtained by the consortium members within the UMRIDA project. All in all, the book offers a authoritative guide to cutting-edge methodologies for uncertainty management in engineering design, covers a wide range of applications and discusses new ideas for future research and interdisciplinary collaborations.
Modelling Under Risk And Uncertainty
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Author : Etienne de Rocquigny
language : en
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Release Date : 2012-04-12
Modelling Under Risk And Uncertainty written by Etienne de Rocquigny and has been published by John Wiley & Sons this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-04-12 with Mathematics categories.
Modelling has permeated virtually all areas of industrial, environmental, economic, bio-medical or civil engineering: yet the use of models for decision-making raises a number of issues to which this book is dedicated: How uncertain is my model ? Is it truly valuable to support decision-making ? What kind of decision can be truly supported and how can I handle residual uncertainty ? How much refined should the mathematical description be, given the true data limitations ? Could the uncertainty be reduced through more data, increased modeling investment or computational budget ? Should it be reduced now or later ? How robust is the analysis or the computational methods involved ? Should / could those methods be more robust ? Does it make sense to handle uncertainty, risk, lack of knowledge, variability or errors altogether ? How reasonable is the choice of probabilistic modeling for rare events ? How rare are the events to be considered ? How far does it make sense to handle extreme events and elaborate confidence figures ? Can I take advantage of expert / phenomenological knowledge to tighten the probabilistic figures ? Are there connex domains that could provide models or inspiration for my problem ? Written by a leader at the crossroads of industry, academia and engineering, and based on decades of multi-disciplinary field experience, Modelling Under Risk and Uncertainty gives a self-consistent introduction to the methods involved by any type of modeling development acknowledging the inevitable uncertainty and associated risks. It goes beyond the “black-box” view that some analysts, modelers, risk experts or statisticians develop on the underlying phenomenology of the environmental or industrial processes, without valuing enough their physical properties and inner modelling potential nor challenging the practical plausibility of mathematical hypotheses; conversely it is also to attract environmental or engineering modellers to better handle model confidence issues through finer statistical and risk analysis material taking advantage of advanced scientific computing, to face new regulations departing from deterministic design or support robust decision-making. Modelling Under Risk and Uncertainty: Addresses a concern of growing interest for large industries, environmentalists or analysts: robust modeling for decision-making in complex systems. Gives new insights into the peculiar mathematical and computational challenges generated by recent industrial safety or environmental control analysis for rare events. Implements decision theory choices differentiating or aggregating the dimensions of risk/aleatory and epistemic uncertainty through a consistent multi-disciplinary set of statistical estimation, physical modelling, robust computation and risk analysis. Provides an original review of the advanced inverse probabilistic approaches for model identification, calibration or data assimilation, key to digest fast-growing multi-physical data acquisition. Illustrated with one favourite pedagogical example crossing natural risk, engineering and economics, developed throughout the book to facilitate the reading and understanding. Supports Master/PhD-level course as well as advanced tutorials for professional training Analysts and researchers in numerical modeling, applied statistics, scientific computing, reliability, advanced engineering, natural risk or environmental science will benefit from this book.
Impact Of Design Research On Industrial Practice
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Author : Amaresh Chakrabarti
language : en
Publisher: Springer
Release Date : 2015-07-11
Impact Of Design Research On Industrial Practice written by Amaresh Chakrabarti and has been published by Springer this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2015-07-11 with Technology & Engineering categories.
Showcasing exemplars of how various aspects of design research were successfully transitioned into and influenced, design practice, this book features chapters written by eminent international researchers and practitioners from industry on the Impact of Design Research on Industrial Practice. Chapters written by internationally acclaimed researchers of design analyse the findings (guidelines, methods and tools), technologies/products and educational approaches that have been transferred as tools, technologies and people to transform industrial practice of engineering design, whilst the chapters that are written by industrial practitioners describe their experience of how various tools, technologies and training impacted design practice. The main benefit of this book, for educators, researchers and practitioners in (engineering) design, will be access to a comprehensive coverage of case studies of successful transfer of outcomes of design research into practice; as well as guidelines and platforms for successful transfer of research into practice.
Uncertainty Quantification In Scientific Computing
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Author : Andrew Dienstfrey
language : en
Publisher: Springer
Release Date : 2012-08-11
Uncertainty Quantification In Scientific Computing written by Andrew Dienstfrey and has been published by Springer this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-08-11 with Computers categories.
This book constitutes the refereed post-proceedings of the 10th IFIP WG 2.5 Working Conference on Uncertainty Quantification in Scientific Computing, WoCoUQ 2011, held in Boulder, CO, USA, in August 2011. The 24 revised papers were carefully reviewed and selected from numerous submissions. They are organized in the following topical sections: UQ need: risk, policy, and decision making, UQ theory, UQ tools, UQ practice, and hot topics. The papers are followed by the records of the discussions between the participants and the speaker.
Dependability Modelling Under Uncertainty
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Author : Philipp Limbourg
language : en
Publisher: Springer
Release Date : 2008-09-08
Dependability Modelling Under Uncertainty written by Philipp Limbourg and has been published by Springer this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2008-09-08 with Computers categories.
Mechatronic design processes have become shorter and more parallelized, induced by growing time-to-market pressure. Methods that enable quantitative analysis in early design stages are required, should dependability analyses aim to influence the design. Due to the limited amount of data in this phase, the level of uncertainty is high and explicit modeling of these uncertainties becomes necessary. This work introduces new uncertainty-preserving dependability methods for early design stages. These include the propagation of uncertainty through dependability models, the activation of data from similar components for analyses and the integration of uncertain dependability predictions into an optimization framework. It is shown that Dempster-Shafer theory can be an alternative to probability theory in early design stage dependability predictions. Expert estimates can be represented, input uncertainty is propagated through the system and prediction uncertainty can be measured and interpreted. The resulting coherent methodology can be applied to represent the uncertainty in dependability models.
Uncertainty In Risk Assessment
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Author : Terje Aven
language : en
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Release Date : 2013-12-17
Uncertainty In Risk Assessment written by Terje Aven and has been published by John Wiley & Sons this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-12-17 with Mathematics categories.
Explores methods for the representation and treatment of uncertainty in risk assessment In providing guidance for practical decision-making situations concerning high-consequence technologies (e.g., nuclear, oil and gas, transport, etc.), the theories and methods studied in Uncertainty in Risk Assessment have wide-ranging applications from engineering and medicine to environmental impacts and natural disasters, security, and financial risk management. The main focus, however, is on engineering applications. While requiring some fundamental background in risk assessment, as well as a basic knowledge of probability theory and statistics, Uncertainty in Risk Assessment can be read profitably by a broad audience of professionals in the field, including researchers and graduate students on courses within risk analysis, statistics, engineering, and the physical sciences. Uncertainty in Risk Assessment: Illustrates the need for seeing beyond probability to represent uncertainties in risk assessment contexts. Provides simple explanations (supported by straightforward numerical examples) of the meaning of different types of probabilities, including interval probabilities, and the fundamentals of possibility theory and evidence theory. Offers guidance on when to use probability and when to use an alternative representation of uncertainty. Presents and discusses methods for the representation and characterization of uncertainty in risk assessment. Uses examples to clearly illustrate ideas and concepts.
System Dependability Evaluation Including S Dependency And Uncertainty
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Author : Hans-Dieter Kochs
language : en
Publisher: Springer
Release Date : 2017-11-14
System Dependability Evaluation Including S Dependency And Uncertainty written by Hans-Dieter Kochs and has been published by Springer this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017-11-14 with Technology & Engineering categories.
The book focuses on system dependability modeling and calculation, considering the impact of s-dependency and uncertainty. The best suited approaches for practical system dependability modeling and calculation, (1) the minimal cut approach, (2) the Markov process approach, and (3) the Markov minimal cut approach as a combination of (1) and (2) are described in detail and applied to several examples. The stringently used Boolean logic during the whole development process of the approaches is the key for the combination of the approaches on a common basis. For large and complex systems, efficient approximation approaches, e.g. the probable Markov path approach, have been developed, which can take into account s-dependencies be-tween components of complex system structures. A comprehensive analysis of aleatory uncertainty (due to randomness) and epistemic uncertainty (due to lack of knowledge), and their combination, developed on the basis of basic reliability indices and evaluated with the Monte Carlo simulation method, has been carried out. The uncertainty impact on system dependability is investigated and discussed using several examples with different levels of difficulty. The applications cover a wide variety of large and complex (real-world) systems. Actual state-of-the-art definitions of terms of the IEC 60050-192:2015 standard, as well as the dependability indices, are used uniformly in all six chapters of the book.
Mechanical Engineering In Uncertainties From Classical Approaches To Some Recent Developments
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Author :
language : en
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Release Date : 2021-03-05
Mechanical Engineering In Uncertainties From Classical Approaches To Some Recent Developments written by and has been published by John Wiley & Sons this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021-03-05 with Science categories.
Considering the uncertainties in mechanical engineering in order to improve the performance of future products or systems is becoming a competitive advantage, sometimes even a necessity, when seeking to guarantee an increasingly high safety requirement. Mechanical Engineering in Uncertainties deals with modeling, quantification and propagation of uncertainties. It also examines how to take into account uncertainties through reliability analyses and optimization under uncertainty. The spectrum of the methods presented ranges from classical approaches to more recent developments and advanced methods. The methodologies are illustrated by concrete examples in various fields of mechanics (civil engineering, mechanical engineering and fluid mechanics). This book is intended for both (young) researchers and engineers interested in the treatment of uncertainties in mechanical engineering.
Knowledge In Risk Assessment And Management
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Author : Terje Aven
language : en
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Release Date : 2017-12-19
Knowledge In Risk Assessment And Management written by Terje Aven and has been published by John Wiley & Sons this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017-12-19 with Business & Economics categories.
Exciting new developments in risk assessment and management Risk assessment and management is fundamentally founded on the knowledge available on the system or process under consideration. While this may be self-evident to the laymen, thought leaders within the risk community have come to recognize and emphasize the need to explicitly incorporate knowledge (K) in a systematic, rigorous, and transparent framework for describing and modeling risk. Featuring contributions by an international team of researchers and respected practitioners in the field, this book explores the latest developments in the ongoing effort to use risk assessment as a means for characterizing knowledge and/or lack of knowledge about a system or process of interest. By offering a fresh perspective on risk assessment and management, the book represents a significant contribution to the development of a sturdier foundation for the practice of risk assessment and for risk-informed decision making. How should K be described and evaluated in risk assessment? How can it be reflected and taken into account in formulating risk management strategies? With the help of numerous case studies and real-world examples, this book answers these and other critical questions at the heart of modern risk assessment, while identifying many practical challenges associated with this explicit framework. This book, written by international scholars and leaders in the field, and edited to make coverage both conceptually advanced and highly accessible: Offers a systematic, rigorous and transparent perspective and framework on risk assessment and management, explicitly strengthening the links between knowledge and risk Clearly and concisely introduces the key risk concepts at the foundation of risk assessment and management Features numerous cases and real-world examples, many of which focused on various engineering applications across an array of industries Knowledge of Risk Assessment and Management is a must-read for risk assessment and management professionals, as well as graduate students, researchers and educators in the field. It is also of interest to policy makers and business people who are eager to gain a better understanding of the foundations and boundaries of risk assessment, and how its outcomes should be used for decision-making.