Utility Theory For Decision Making
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Utility Theory For Decision Making
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Author : Peter C. Fishburn
language : en
Publisher: Huntington, N.Y. : R. E. Krieger Publishing Company
Release Date : 1979-01-01
Utility Theory For Decision Making written by Peter C. Fishburn and has been published by Huntington, N.Y. : R. E. Krieger Publishing Company this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1979-01-01 with Decision-making categories.
Introduction To Statistical Decision Theory
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Author : Silvia Bacci
language : en
Publisher: CRC Press
Release Date : 2019-07-11
Introduction To Statistical Decision Theory written by Silvia Bacci and has been published by CRC Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019-07-11 with Mathematics categories.
Introduction to Statistical Decision Theory: Utility Theory and Causal Analysis provides the theoretical background to approach decision theory from a statistical perspective. It covers both traditional approaches, in terms of value theory and expected utility theory, and recent developments, in terms of causal inference. The book is specifically designed to appeal to students and researchers that intend to acquire a knowledge of statistical science based on decision theory. Features Covers approaches for making decisions under certainty, risk, and uncertainty Illustrates expected utility theory and its extensions Describes approaches to elicit the utility function Reviews classical and Bayesian approaches to statistical inference based on decision theory Discusses the role of causal analysis in statistical decision theory
Utility Theories Measurements And Applications
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Author : Ward Edwards
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2013-12-01
Utility Theories Measurements And Applications written by Ward Edwards and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-12-01 with Business & Economics categories.
The Conference on "Utility: Theories, Measurements, and Applications" met at the Inn at Pasatiempo in Santa Cruz, California, from June II to 15, 1989. The all-star cast of attendees are listed as authors in the Table of Contents of this book (see p. V), except for Soo Hong Chew and Amos Tversky. The purpose of the conference, and of National Science Foundation Grant No. SES-8823012 that supported it, was to confront proponents of new generalized theories of utility with leading decision analysts com mitted to the implementation, in practice, of the more traditional theory that these new theories reject. That traditional model is variously iden tified in this book as expected utility or subjectively expected utility maximization (EU or SEU for short) and variously attributed to von Neumann and Morgenstern or Savage. I had feared that the conference might consist of an acrimonious debate between Olympian normative theorists uninterested in what people actually do and behavioral modelers obsessed with the cognitive illusions and uninterested in helping people to make wise decisions. I was entirely wrong. The conferees, in two dramatic straw votes at the open ing session, unanimously endorsed traditional SEU as the appropriate normative model and unanimously agreed that people don't act as that model requires. (These votes had a profound impact on my thinking; detail about them and about that impact is located in Chapter 10.
Utility Probability And Human Decision Making
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Author : D. Wendt
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2012-12-06
Utility Probability And Human Decision Making written by D. Wendt and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-12-06 with Social Science categories.
Human decision making involves problems which are being studied with increasing interest and sophistication. They range from controversial political decisions via individual consumer decisions to such simple tasks as signal discriminations. Although it would seem that decisions have to do with choices among available actions of any kind, there is general agreement that decision making research should pertain to choice prob lems which cannot be solved without a predecisional stage of finding choice alternatives, weighing evidence, and judging values. The ultimate objective of scientific research on decision making is two-fold: (a) to develop a theoretically sound technology for the optimal solution of decision problems, and (b) to formulate a descriptive theory of human decision making. The latter may, in tum, protect decision makers from being caught in the traps of their own limitations and biases. Recently, in decision making research the strong emphasis on well defined laboratory tasks is decreasing in favour of more realistic studies in various practical settings. This may well have been caused by a growing awareness of the fact that decision-behaviour is strongly determined by situational factors, which makes it necessary to look into processes of interaction between the decision maker and the relevant task environ ment. Almost inevitably there is a parallel shift of interest towards problems of utility measurement and the evaluation of consequences.
Experiments On Decisions Under Risk The Expected Utility Hypothesis
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Author : P.J.H. Schoemaker
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2013-11-11
Experiments On Decisions Under Risk The Expected Utility Hypothesis written by P.J.H. Schoemaker and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-11-11 with Business & Economics categories.
In this valuable book, Paul Schoemaker summarizes recent experimental and field research that he and others have undertaken regarding the descrip tive validity of expected utility theory as a model of choice under uncer tainty. His principal message is that this paradigm is too narrow in its con ception and misses some of the important elements of a descriptive model of individual choice. In particular, Schoemaker calls attention to the impor tance of individual differences, task effects, and context effects as they influence behavior. The expected utility hypothesis has come under scrutiny in recent years from a number of different quarters. This book brings together these many studies and relates them to the large body of literature on individual de cision making under risk. Although this paradigm may be appropriate for describing behavior under many conditions of uncertainty, Schoemaker presents convincing evidence that it does not do well with respect to protec tion against low-probability events. For example, he shows that the insur ance purchase decision is influenced by the way information is presented to the client, as well as by the statistical knowledge of the respondents.
Decision Making Under Risk And Uncertainty
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Author : J. Geweke
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2012-12-06
Decision Making Under Risk And Uncertainty written by J. Geweke and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-12-06 with Business & Economics categories.
As desired, the infonnation demand correspondence is single valued at equilibrium prices. Hence no planner is needed to assign infonnation allocations to individuals. Proposition 4. For any given infonnation price system p E . P (F *), almost every a E A demands a unique combined infonnation structure (although traders may be indifferent among partial infonnation sales from different information allocations, etc. ). In particular, the aggregate excess demand correspondence for net combined infonnation trades is a continuous function. Proof Uniqueness fails only if an agent can obtain the same expected utility from two or more net combined infonnation allocations. If this happens, appropriate slight perturbations of personal probability vectors destroy the equality unless the utility functions and wealth allocations were independent across states. Yet, when utilities and wealths don't depend on states in S, no infonnation to distinguish the states is desired, so that the demand for such infonnation structures must equal zero. To show the second claim, recall that if the correspondence is single valued for almost every agent, then its integral is also single valued. Finally, note that an upper hemicontinuous (by Proposition 2) correspondence which is single valued everywhere is, in fact, a continuous function. [] REFERENCES Allen, Beth (1986a). "The Demand for (Differentiated) Infonnation"; Review of Economic Studies. 53. (311-323). Allen, Beth (1986b). "General Equilibrium with Infonnation Sales"; Theory and Decision. 21. (1-33). Allen, Beth (1990). "Infonnation as an Economic Commodity"; American Economic Review. 80. (268-273).
Multiperson Decision Making Models Using Fuzzy Sets And Possibility Theory
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Author : J. Kacprzyk
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2012-12-06
Multiperson Decision Making Models Using Fuzzy Sets And Possibility Theory written by J. Kacprzyk and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-12-06 with Business & Economics categories.
Decision making is certainly a very crucial component of many human activities. It is, therefore, not surprising that models of decisions play a very important role not only in decision theory but also in areas such as operations Research, Management science, social Psychology etc . . The basic model of a decision in classical normative decision theory has very little in common with real decision making: It portrays a decision as a clear-cut act of choice, performed by one individual decision maker and in which states of nature, possible actions, results and preferences are well and crisply defined. The only compo nent in which uncertainty is permitted is the occurence of the different states of nature, for which probabilistic descriptions are allowed. These probabilities are generally assumed to be known numerically, i. e. as single probabili ties or as probability distribution functions. Extensions of this basic model can primarily be conceived in three directions: 1. Rather than a single decision maker there are several decision makers involved. This has lead to the areas of game theory, team theory and group decision theory. 2. The preference or utility function is not single valued but rather vector valued. This extension is considered in multiattribute utility theory and in multicritieria analysis. 3.
Judgment And Decision Making
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Author : Jacques Frank Yates
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1990
Judgment And Decision Making written by Jacques Frank Yates and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1990 with Psychology categories.
Decisions With Multiple Objectives
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Author : Ralph L. Keeney
language : en
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Release Date : 1993-07
Decisions With Multiple Objectives written by Ralph L. Keeney and has been published by Cambridge University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1993-07 with Business & Economics categories.
This book describes how a confused decision maker, who wishes to make a reasonable and responsible choice among alternatives, can systematically probe their thoughts and feelings in order to make the critically important trade-offs between incommensurable objectives.
Decision Probability And Utility
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Author : Peter Gärdenfors
language : en
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Release Date : 1988-04-29
Decision Probability And Utility written by Peter Gärdenfors and has been published by Cambridge University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1988-04-29 with Business & Economics categories.
Decision theory and the theory of rational choice have recently been the subjects of considerable research by philosophers and economists. However, no adequate anthology exists which can be used to introduce students to the field. This volume is designed to meet that need. The essays included are organized into five parts covering the foundations of decision theory, the conceptualization of probability and utility, pholosophical difficulties with the rules of rationality and with the assessment of probability, and causal decision theory. The editors provide an extensive introduction to the field and introductions to each part.