Domestic Amplifiers Of External Shocks Growth Accelerations And Reversals In Emerging Market And Developing Economies
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Domestic Amplifiers Of External Shocks Growth Accelerations And Reversals In Emerging Market And Developing Economies
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Author : Bertrand Gruss
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2019-06-17
Domestic Amplifiers Of External Shocks Growth Accelerations And Reversals In Emerging Market And Developing Economies written by Bertrand Gruss and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019-06-17 with Business & Economics categories.
External conditions have been found to influence the tendency of emerging market and developing economies to experience episodes of growth accelerations and reversals. In this paper we study the role of domestic policies and other structural attributes in amplifying or mitigating the effect that shifts in external conditions have on growth patterns in emerging market and developing economies over the past five decades. We find that these economies can enhance the growth impulse from external conditions by strengthening their institutional frameworks and adopting a policy mix that protects trade integration; permits exchange rate flexibility; and ensures that vulnerabilities stemming from high current account deficits and external debt, as well as high public debt, are contained.
Growth Accelerations And Reversals In Emerging Market And Developing Economies The Role Of External Conditions
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Author : Bertrand Gruss
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2018-03-12
Growth Accelerations And Reversals In Emerging Market And Developing Economies The Role Of External Conditions written by Bertrand Gruss and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018-03-12 with Business & Economics categories.
This paper investigates how country-specific external demand, external financial conditions, and terms of trade affect medium-term growth in Emerging Market and Developing Economies and the occurrence of growth accelerations and reversals. The importance of country-specific external conditions for medium-term growth has increased over time—in particular, the growing contribution of external financial conditions accounts for one-third of the increase in average income per capita growth between 1995–2004 and 2005–14. Stronger external demand and financial conditions significantly increase the probability of growth accelerations, while a strengthening of any of the three conditions significantly decreases the probability of reversals.
Domestic Amplifiers Of External Shocks Growth Accelerations And Reversals In Emerging Market And Developing Economies
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Author : Bertrand Gruss
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2019-06-17
Domestic Amplifiers Of External Shocks Growth Accelerations And Reversals In Emerging Market And Developing Economies written by Bertrand Gruss and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019-06-17 with Business & Economics categories.
External conditions have been found to influence the tendency of emerging market and developing economies to experience episodes of growth accelerations and reversals. In this paper we study the role of domestic policies and other structural attributes in amplifying or mitigating the effect that shifts in external conditions have on growth patterns in emerging market and developing economies over the past five decades. We find that these economies can enhance the growth impulse from external conditions by strengthening their institutional frameworks and adopting a policy mix that protects trade integration; permits exchange rate flexibility; and ensures that vulnerabilities stemming from high current account deficits and external debt, as well as high public debt, are contained.
The Rising Resilience Of Emerging Market And Developing Economies
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Author : Mr.Abdul Abiad
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2012-12-20
The Rising Resilience Of Emerging Market And Developing Economies written by Mr.Abdul Abiad and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-12-20 with Business & Economics categories.
Economic performance in many emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) improved substantially over the past twenty years. The past decade was particularly good—for the first time EMDEs spent more time in expansion and had smaller downturns thanadvanced economies. In this paper we document the history of EMDEs’ resilience over the past sixty years, and investigate what factors have been associated with it. We find that their improved performance in recent years is accounted for by both good policies and a lowerincidence of external and domestic shocks—better policies account for about three-fifths of their improved resilience, while less frequent shocks account for the remainder.
How External Factors Affect Domestic Economy
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Author : Mr.Serhat Solmaz
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2015-12-23
How External Factors Affect Domestic Economy written by Mr.Serhat Solmaz and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2015-12-23 with Business & Economics categories.
External headwinds, together with domestic vulnerabilities, have loomed over the prospects of emerging markets in recent years. We propose an empirical toolbox to quantify the impact of external macro-financial shocks on domestic economies in parsimonious way. Our model is a Bayesian VAR consisting of two blocks representing home and foreign factors, which is particularly useful for small open economies. By exploiting the mixed-frequency nature of the model, we show how the toolbox can be used for “nowcasting” the output growth. The conditional forecast results illustrate that regular updates of external information, as well as domestic leading indicators, would significantly enhance the accuracy of forecasts. Moreover, the analysis of variance decompositions shows that external shocks are important drivers of the domestic business cycle.
Global Waves Of Debt
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Author : M. Ayhan Kose
language : en
Publisher: World Bank Publications
Release Date : 2021-03-03
Global Waves Of Debt written by M. Ayhan Kose and has been published by World Bank Publications this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021-03-03 with Business & Economics categories.
The global economy has experienced four waves of rapid debt accumulation over the past 50 years. The first three debt waves ended with financial crises in many emerging market and developing economies. During the current wave, which started in 2010, the increase in debt in these economies has already been larger, faster, and broader-based than in the previous three waves. Current low interest rates mitigate some of the risks associated with high debt. However, emerging market and developing economies are also confronted by weak growth prospects, mounting vulnerabilities, and elevated global risks. A menu of policy options is available to reduce the likelihood that the current debt wave will end in crisis and, if crises do take place, will alleviate their impact.
Inflation In Emerging And Developing Economies
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Author : Jongrim Ha
language : en
Publisher: World Bank Publications
Release Date : 2019-02-24
Inflation In Emerging And Developing Economies written by Jongrim Ha and has been published by World Bank Publications this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019-02-24 with Business & Economics categories.
This is the first comprehensive study in the context of EMDEs that covers, in one consistent framework, the evolution and global and domestic drivers of inflation, the role of expectations, exchange rate pass-through and policy implications. In addition, the report analyzes inflation and monetary policy related challenges in LICs. The report documents three major findings: In First, EMDE disinflation over the past four decades was to a significant degree a result of favorable external developments, pointing to the risk of rising EMDE inflation if global inflation were to increase. In particular, the decline in EMDE inflation has been supported by broad-based global disinflation amid rapid international trade and financial integration and the disruption caused by the global financial crisis. While domestic factors continue to be the main drivers of short-term movements in EMDE inflation, the role of global factors has risen by one-half between the 1970s and the 2000s. On average, global shocks, especially oil price swings and global demand shocks have accounted for more than one-quarter of domestic inflation variatio--and more in countries with stronger global linkages and greater reliance on commodity imports. In LICs, global food and energy price shocks accounted for another 12 percent of core inflation variatio--half more than in advanced economies and one-fifth more than in non-LIC EMDEs. Second, inflation expectations continue to be less well-anchored in EMDEs than in advanced economies, although a move to inflation targeting and better fiscal frameworks has helped strengthen monetary policy credibility. Lower monetary policy credibility and exchange rate flexibility have also been associated with higher pass-through of exchange rate shocks into domestic inflation in the event of global shocks, which have accounted for half of EMDE exchange rate variation. Third, in part because of poorly anchored inflation expectations, the transmission of global commodity price shocks to domestic LIC inflation (combined with unintended consequences of other government policies) can have material implications for poverty: the global food price spikes in 2010-11 tipped roughly 8 million people into poverty.
Capital Flows At Risk Taming The Ebbs And Flows
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Author : Mr.R. G Gelos
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2019-12-20
Capital Flows At Risk Taming The Ebbs And Flows written by Mr.R. G Gelos and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019-12-20 with Business & Economics categories.
The volatility of capital flows to emerging markets continues to pose challenges to policymakers. In this paper, we propose a new framework to answer critical policy questions: What policies and policy frameworks are most effective in dampening sharp capital flow movements in response to global shocks? What are the near- versus medium-term trade-offs of different policies? We tackle these questions using a quantile regression framework to predict the entire future probability distribution of capital flows to emerging markets, based on current domestic structural characteristics, policies, and global financial conditions. This new approach allows policymakers to quantify capital flows risks and evaluate policy tools to mitigate them, thus building the foundation of a risk management framework for capital flows.
A Decade After The Global Recession
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Author : M. Ayhan Kose
language : en
Publisher: World Bank Publications
Release Date : 2021-03-19
A Decade After The Global Recession written by M. Ayhan Kose and has been published by World Bank Publications this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021-03-19 with Business & Economics categories.
This year marks the tenth anniversary of the 2009 global recession. Most emerging market and developing economies weathered the global recession relatively well, in part by using the sizable fiscal and monetary policy ammunition accumulated during prior years of strong growth. However, their growth prospects have weakened since then, and many now have less policy space. This study provides the first comprehensive stocktaking of the past decade from the perspective of emerging market and developing economies. Many of these economies have now become more vulnerable to economic shocks. The study discusses lessons from the global recession and policy options for these economies to strengthen growth and prepare for the possibility of another global downturn.
Global Financial Stability Report April 2012
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Author : International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2012-04-18
Global Financial Stability Report April 2012 written by International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-04-18 with Business & Economics categories.
The April 2012 Global Financial Stability Report assesses changes in risks to financial stability over the past six months, focusing on sovereign vulnerabilities, risks stemming from private sector deleveraging, and assessing the continued resilience of emerging markets. The report probes the implications of recent reforms in the financial system for market perception of safe assets, and investigates the growing public and private costs of increased longevity risk from aging populations.