Nowcasting

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Nowcasting

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Author : K. A. Browning
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1982

Nowcasting written by K. A. Browning and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1982 with Nature categories.

Seeing In The Dark

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Author : Mr.Andrew Tiffin
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2016-03-08

Seeing In The Dark written by Mr.Andrew Tiffin and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016-03-08 with Computers categories.

Macroeconomic analysis in Lebanon presents a distinct challenge. For example, long delays in the publication of GDP data mean that our analysis often relies on proxy variables, and resembles an extended version of the “nowcasting” challenge familiar to many central banks. Addressing this problem—and mindful of the pitfalls of extracting information from a large number of correlated proxies—we explore some recent techniques from the machine learning literature. We focus on two popular techniques (Elastic Net regression and Random Forests) and provide an estimation procedure that is intuitively familiar and well suited to the challenging features of Lebanon’s data.

Nowcasting Geodynamics

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Author : Stephan De Spiegeleire
language : en
Publisher: The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies
Release Date : 2017-02-20

Nowcasting Geodynamics written by Stephan De Spiegeleire and has been published by The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017-02-20 with categories.

HCSS’ original term “nowcasting” – as opposed to forecasting – describes the process of monitoring, depicting, and analyzing ongoing developments in international relations as they occur. Once again, our study “Nowcasting Geodynamics” uses a rich base of quantitative data to move beyond the anecdotal, and towards the systematic. We intend our empirical approach to add to debates across all domains – diplomatic, economics, legal, military, etc. – and across all countries, whether they are great powers such as the United States or China, or smaller but strategically important states, such as Indonesia, and Egypt. This year’s analysis covers the geodynamic trends of countries across the world and traverses the different domains in order to give perspectives on the “now” trends, and where they might lead us in the future. This study is part of the 2016-2017 HCSS StratMon.

Identifying Optimal Indicators And Lag Terms For Nowcasting Models

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Author : Jing Xie
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2023-03-03

Identifying Optimal Indicators And Lag Terms For Nowcasting Models written by Jing Xie and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2023-03-03 with Business & Economics categories.

Many central banks and government agencies use nowcasting techniques to obtain policy relevant information about the business cycle. Existing nowcasting methods, however, have two critical shortcomings for this purpose. First, in contrast to machine-learning models, they do not provide much if any guidance on selecting the best explantory variables (both high- and low-frequency indicators) from the (typically) larger set of variables available to the nowcaster. Second, in addition to the selection of explanatory variables, the order of the autoregression and moving average terms to use in the baseline nowcasting regression is often set arbitrarily. This paper proposes a simple procedure that simultaneously selects the optimal indicators and ARIMA(p,q) terms for the baseline nowcasting regression. The proposed AS-ARIMAX (Adjusted Stepwise Autoregressive Moving Average methods with exogenous variables) approach significantly reduces out-of-sample root mean square error for nowcasts of real GDP of six countries, including India, Argentina, Australia, South Africa, the United Kingdom, and the United States.

Nowcasting Gdp A Scalable Approach Using Dfm Machine Learning And Novel Data Applied To European Economies

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Author : Mr. Jean-Francois Dauphin
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2022-03-11

Nowcasting Gdp A Scalable Approach Using Dfm Machine Learning And Novel Data Applied To European Economies written by Mr. Jean-Francois Dauphin and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2022-03-11 with Business & Economics categories.

This paper describes recent work to strengthen nowcasting capacity at the IMF’s European department. It motivates and compiles datasets of standard and nontraditional variables, such as Google search and air quality. It applies standard dynamic factor models (DFMs) and several machine learning (ML) algorithms to nowcast GDP growth across a heterogenous group of European economies during normal and crisis times. Most of our methods significantly outperform the AR(1) benchmark model. Our DFMs tend to perform better during normal times while many of the ML methods we used performed strongly at identifying turning points. Our approach is easily applicable to other countries, subject to data availability.

Impact Of Covid 19 Nowcasting And Big Data To Track Economic Activity In Sub Saharan Africa

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Author : Brandon Buell
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2021-05

Impact Of Covid 19 Nowcasting And Big Data To Track Economic Activity In Sub Saharan Africa written by Brandon Buell and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021-05 with Business & Economics categories.

The COVID-19 pandemic underscores the critical need for detailed, timely information on its evolving economic impacts, particularly for Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) where data availability and lack of generalizable nowcasting methodologies limit efforts for coordinated policy responses. This paper presents a suite of high frequency and granular country-level indicator tools that can be used to nowcast GDP and track changes in economic activity for countries in SSA. We make two main contributions: (1) demonstration of the predictive power of alternative data variables such as Google search trends and mobile payments, and (2) implementation of two types of modelling methodologies, machine learning and parametric factor models, that have flexibility to incorporate mixed-frequency data variables. We present nowcast results for 2019Q4 and 2020Q1 GDP for Kenya, Nigeria, South Africa, Uganda, and Ghana, and argue that our factor model methodology can be generalized to nowcast and forecast GDP for other SSA countries with limited data availability and shorter timeframes.

Nowcasting Annual National Accounts With Quarterly Indicators

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Author : Mr.Marco Marini
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2016-03-23

Nowcasting Annual National Accounts With Quarterly Indicators written by Mr.Marco Marini and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016-03-23 with Business & Economics categories.

Benchmarking methods can be used to extrapolate (or “nowcast”) low-frequency benchmarks on the basis of available high-frequency indicators. Quarterly national accounts are a typical example, where a number of monthly and quarterly indicators of economic activity are used to calculate preliminary annual estimates of GDP. Using both simulated and real-life national accounts data, this paper aims at assessing the prediction accuracy of three benchmarking methods widely used in the national accounts compilation: the proportional Denton method, the proportional Cholette-Dagum method with first-order autoregressive error, and the regression-based Chow-Lin method. The results show that the Cholette-Dagum method provides the most accurate extrapolations when the indicator and the annual benchmarks move along the same trend. However, the Denton and Chow-Lin methods could prevail in real-life cases when the quarterly indicator temporarily deviates from the target series.

Nowcasting Co2 Emissions Early Estimates Or Nowcasts For Monitoring Changes In Greenhouse Gas Emissions Ghgs

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Author : Pandis Iveroth, Sofie
language : en
Publisher: Nordic Council of Ministers
Release Date : 2022-08-16

Nowcasting Co2 Emissions Early Estimates Or Nowcasts For Monitoring Changes In Greenhouse Gas Emissions Ghgs written by Pandis Iveroth, Sofie and has been published by Nordic Council of Ministers this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2022-08-16 with Science categories.

Available online: https://pub.norden.org/temanord2022-537/ Anthesis AB, Real-Zero Consulting HB, PlanMiljø Aps and Kausal Ltd have conducted a survey on the use and the possible uses of early estimates or “nowcasts” for monitoring changes in greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs) with a focus on fossil CO2. Nordic countries report emission statistics to the UNFCCC as well as EU. Due to more ambitious national mitigation targets, there is need for more timely emission statistics. The project suggests a development of early estimates through:- further analysis of the need and possibilities for nowcasting, focusing on a clear understanding of what timely emission estimates will be used for.- instigate a climate policy lab, given the complexity to overview and communicate the need and possibilities for nowcasting data.- create a portal collecting available emission statistics, as currently it is a complex task to overview available emission statistics.

Panel Nowcasting For Countries Whose Quarterly Gdps Are Unavailable

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Author : Omer Faruk Akbal
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2023-08-04

Panel Nowcasting For Countries Whose Quarterly Gdps Are Unavailable written by Omer Faruk Akbal and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2023-08-04 with Business & Economics categories.

Quarterly GDP statistics facilitate timely economic assessment, but the availability of such data are limited for more than 60 developing economies, including about 20 countries in sub-Saharan Africa as well as more than two-thirds of fragile and conflict-affected states. To address this limited data availablity, this paper proposes a panel approach that utilizes a statistical relationship estimated from countries where data are available, to estimate quarterly GDP statistics for countries that do not publish such statistics by leveraging the indicators readily available for many countries. This framework demonstrates potential, especially when applied for similar country groups, and could provide valuable real-time insights into economic conditions supported by empirical evidence.

Nowcasting The Business Cycle

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Author : James Picerno
language : en
Publisher: CreateSpace
Release Date : 2014-04

Nowcasting The Business Cycle written by James Picerno and has been published by CreateSpace this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014-04 with Business & Economics categories.

Nowcasting The Business Cycle presents a practical guide for analyzing recession risk—the primary risk factor that drives success and failure in business, finance, wealth management, and so much more. Whether you're an individual investor watching over your retirement account; the owner of a small business; a manager running a billion-dollar pension fund; or a CEO in charge of a global corporation, a large portion of triumph and defeat is closely linked with the broad swings in the economy. The business cycle, in other words, is the mother of all known (and recurring) risk factors. Accordingly, developing a process for assessing the likelihood of this threat is critical. Everyone needs a reliable, timely warning system that's relatively uncomplicated and transparent. Drawing on economic theory and macro's historical record, Nowcasting The Business Cycle outlines a simple but effective model for identifying those times when a new recession has probably started. This isn't forecasting, which is a fool's errand when it comes to the economy. Instead, the goal is recognizing when a majority of key indicators have already reached a tipping point. That may sound like a trivial advantage, but most people—including many economists—don't fully recognize when a recession has begun until the deterioration is obvious. By that point, the opportunity has probably passed for taking defensive measures in your investment portfolio, your business, or your career. The real challenge is less about predicting and more about developing solid intuition for recognizing when the macro threat is exceptionally high. Even a small degree of progress here can provide a considerable boost to your strategic insight. If we can learn the techniques for recognizing a cyclical downturn's presence relatively early—soon after it's begun, or just as it's starting—we'll have an advantage that tends to elude most folks. Nowcasting The Business Cycle provides a roadmap for ensuring that you won't be caught by surprise when the next recession strikes. That's a crucial advantage for one powerful reason: There's always another recession coming.