Statistical Demography And Forecasting
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Statistical Demography And Forecasting
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Author : Juha Alho
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2006-05-27
Statistical Demography And Forecasting written by Juha Alho and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2006-05-27 with Social Science categories.
Sustainability of pension systems, intergeneration fiscal equity under population aging, and accounting for health care benefits for future retirees are examples of problems that cannot be solved without understanding the nature of population forecasts and their uncertainty. Similarly, the accuracy of population estimates directly affects both the distributions of formula-based government allocations to sub-national units and the apportionment of political representation. The book develops the statistical foundation for addressing such issues. Areas covered include classical mathematical demography, event history methods, multi-state methods, stochastic population forecasting, sampling and census coverage, and decision theory. The methods are illustrated with empirical applications from Europe and the U.S. For statisticians the book provides a unique introduction to demographic problems in a familiar language. For demographers, actuaries, epidemiologists, and professionals in related fields, the book presents a unified statistical outlook on both classical methods of demography and recent developments. To facilitate its classroom use, exercises are included. Over half of the book is readily accessible to undergraduates, but more maturity may be required to benefit fully from the complete text. Knowledge of differential and integral calculus, matrix algebra, basic probability theory, and regression analysis is assumed. Juha M. Alho is Professor of Statistics, University of Joensuu, Finland, and Bruce D. Spencer is Professor of Statistics and Faculty Fellow at the Institute for Policy Research, Northwestern University. Both have contributed extensively to statistical demography and served in advisory roles and as statistical consultants in the field.
Old And New Perspectives On Mortality Forecasting
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Author : Tommy Bengtsson
language : en
Publisher: Springer
Release Date : 2019-03-28
Old And New Perspectives On Mortality Forecasting written by Tommy Bengtsson and has been published by Springer this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019-03-28 with Social Science categories.
This open access book describes methods of mortality forecasting and discusses possible improvements. It contains a selection of previously unpublished and published papers, which together provide a state-of-the-art overview of statistical approaches as well as behavioural and biological perspectives. The different parts of the book provide discussions of current practice, probabilistic forecasting, the linearity in the increase of life expectancy, causes of death, and the role of cohort factors. The key question in the book is whether it is possible to project future mortality accurately, and if so, what is the best approach. This makes the book a valuable read to demographers, pension planners, actuaries, and all those interested and/or working in modelling and forecasting mortality.
Forecasting International Migration In Europe A Bayesian View
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Author : Jakub Bijak
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2010-10-23
Forecasting International Migration In Europe A Bayesian View written by Jakub Bijak and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2010-10-23 with Social Science categories.
International migration is becoming an increasingly important element of contemporary demographic dynamics and yet, due to its high volatility, it remains the most unpredictable element of population change. In Europe, population forecasting is especially difficult because good-quality data on migration are lacking. There is a clear need for reliable methods of predicting migration since population forecasts are indispensable for rational decision making in many areas, including labour markets, social security or spatial planning and organisation. In addressing these issues, this book adopts a Bayesian statistical perspective, which allows for a formal incorporation of expert judgement, while describing uncertainty in a coherent and explicit manner. No prior knowledge of Bayesian statistics is assumed. The outcomes are discussed from the point of view of forecast users (decision makers), with the aim to show the relevance and usefulness of the presented methods in practical applications.
Demographic Forecasting
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Author : Federico Girosi
language : en
Publisher: Princeton University Press
Release Date : 2018-06-05
Demographic Forecasting written by Federico Girosi and has been published by Princeton University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018-06-05 with Social Science categories.
Demographic Forecasting introduces new statistical tools that can greatly improve forecasts of population death rates. Mortality forecasting is used in a wide variety of academic fields, and for policymaking in global health, social security and retirement planning, and other areas. Federico Girosi and Gary King provide an innovative framework for forecasting age-sex-country-cause-specific variables that makes it possible to incorporate more information than standard approaches. These new methods more generally make it possible to include different explanatory variables in a time-series regression for each cross section while still borrowing strength from one regression to improve the estimation of all. The authors show that many existing Bayesian models with explanatory variables use prior densities that incorrectly formalize prior knowledge, and they show how to avoid these problems. They also explain how to incorporate a great deal of demographic knowledge into models with many fewer adjustable parameters than classic Bayesian approaches, and develop models with Bayesian priors in the presence of partial prior ignorance. By showing how to include more information in statistical models, Demographic Forecasting carries broad statistical implications for social scientists, statisticians, demographers, public-health experts, policymakers, and industry analysts. Introduces methods to improve forecasts of mortality rates and similar variables Provides innovative tools for more effective statistical modeling Makes available free open-source software and replication data Includes full-color graphics, a complete glossary of symbols, a self-contained math refresher, and more
Demography And Health Issues
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Author : Christos H. Skiadas
language : en
Publisher: Springer
Release Date : 2018-05-28
Demography And Health Issues written by Christos H. Skiadas and has been published by Springer this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018-05-28 with Social Science categories.
This book provides new theories, applications and quantitative methods in demography, population studies and statistics. It presents and applies data analysis, statistics and stochastic modeling techniques focusing on demography, population aging, mortality and health sciences. The book describes diverse stochastic processes as well as Markov and semi-Markov models in demography and population studies, along with chapters on statistical models and methods in biostatistics and epidemiology. As such the book will be a valuable source to demographers, health scientists, statisticians, economists and sociologists.
Forecasting Mortality In Developed Countries
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Author : E. Tabeau
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2001-02-28
Forecasting Mortality In Developed Countries written by E. Tabeau and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2001-02-28 with Business & Economics categories.
Information on future mortality trends is essential for population forecasts, public health policy, actuarial studies, and many other purposes. Realising the importance of such needs, this volume contains contributions to the theory and practice of forecasting mortality in the relatively favourable circumstances in developed countries of Western Europe. In this context techniques from mathematical statistics and econometrics can provide useful descriptions of past mortality. The naive forecast obtained by extrapolating a fitted model may give as good a forecast as any but forecasting by extrapolation requires careful justification since it assumes the prolongation of historical conditions. On the other hand, whilst it is generally accepted that scientific and other advances will continue to impact on mortality, perhaps dramatically so, it is impossible to quantify more than the outline of future consequences with a strong degree of confidence. The decision to modify an extrapolation of a model fitted to historical data (or conversely choosing not to modify it) in order to obtain a forecast is therefore strongly influenced by subjective and judgmental elements, with the quality of the latter dependent on demographic, epidemiological and indeed perhaps more general considerations. The thread running through the book reflects therefore the necessity of integrating demographic, epidemiological, and statistical factors to obtain an improvement in the prediction of mortality.
Developments In Demographic Forecasting
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Author : Stefano Mazzuco
language : en
Publisher: Springer
Release Date : 2021-09-30
Developments In Demographic Forecasting written by Stefano Mazzuco and has been published by Springer this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021-09-30 with Social Science categories.
This open access book presents new developments in the field of demographic forecasting, covering both mortality, fertility and migration. For each component emerging methods to forecast them are presented. Moreover, instruments for forecasting evaluation are provided. Bayesian models, nonparametric models, cohort approaches, elicitation of expert opinion, evaluation of probabilistic forecasts are some of the topics covered in the book. In addition, the book is accompanied by complementary material on the web allowing readers to practice with some of the ideas exposed in the book. Readers are encouraged to use this material to apply the new methods to their own data. The book is an important read for demographers, applied statisticians, as well as other social scientists interested or active in the field of population forecasting. Professional population forecasters in statistical agencies will find useful new ideas in various chapters.
Mathematical Demography
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Author : David P. Smith
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2013-07-23
Mathematical Demography written by David P. Smith and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-07-23 with Social Science categories.
Mathematical demography is the centerpiece of quantitative social science. The founding works of this field from Roman times to the late Twentieth Century are collected here, in a new edition of a classic work by David R. Smith and Nathan Keyfitz. Commentaries by Smith and Keyfitz have been brought up to date and extended by Kenneth Wachter and Hervé Le Bras, giving a synoptic picture of the leading achievements in formal population studies. Like the original collection, this new edition constitutes an indispensable source for students and scientists alike, and illustrates the deep roots and continuing vitality of mathematical demography.
The Oxford Handbook Of Economic Forecasting
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Author : Michael P. Clements
language : en
Publisher: OUP USA
Release Date : 2011-07-08
The Oxford Handbook Of Economic Forecasting written by Michael P. Clements and has been published by OUP USA this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2011-07-08 with Business & Economics categories.
Greater data availability has been coupled with developments in statistical theory and economic theory to allow more elaborate and complicated models to be entertained. These include factor models, DSGE models, restricted vector autoregressions, and non-linear models.
The Methods And Materials Of Demography
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Author : Jacob S. Siegel
language : en
Publisher: Elsevier
Release Date : 2004-03-17
The Methods And Materials Of Demography written by Jacob S. Siegel and has been published by Elsevier this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2004-03-17 with Business & Economics categories.
This is a thorough update of 'Methods and Materials of Demography' (1976). Like the original, this text presents a systematic and comprehensive exposition of the methods used by technicians and research workers in dealing with demographic data.