Informality Trends And Cycles
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Informality Trends And Cycles
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Author : Norman Loayza
language : en
Publisher: World Bank Publications
Release Date : 2006
Informality Trends And Cycles written by Norman Loayza and has been published by World Bank Publications this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2006 with Informal sector (Economics) categories.
This paper studies the trends and cycles of informal employment. It first presents a theoretical model where the size of informal employment is determined by the relative costs and benefits of informality and the distribution of workers' skills. In the long run, informal employment varies with the trends in these variables, and in the short run it reacts to accommodate transient shocks and to close the gap that separates it from its trend level. The paper then uses an error-correction framework to examine empirically informality's long- and short-run relationships. For this purpose, it uses country-level data at annual frequency for a sample of industrial and developing countries, with the share of self-employment in the labor force as the proxy for informal employment. The paper finds that, in the long run, informality is larger in countries that have lower GDP per capita and impose more costs to formal firms in the form of more rigid business regulations, less valuable police and judicial services, and weaker monitoring of informality. In the short run, informal employment is found to be counter-cyclical for the majority of countries, with the degree of counter-cyclicality being lower in countries with larger informal employment and better police and judicial services. Moreover, informal employment follows a stable, trend-reverting process. These results are robust to changes in the sample and to the influence of outliers, even when only developing countries are considered in the analysis.
Informality Trends And Cycles
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Author : Norman Loayza
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2016
Informality Trends And Cycles written by Norman Loayza and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016 with categories.
This paper studies the trends and cycles of informal employment. It first presents a theoretical model where the size of informal employment is determined by the relative costs and benefits of informality and the distribution of workers' skills. In the long run, informal employment varies with the trends in these variables, and in the short run it reacts to accommodate transient shocks and to close the gap that separates it from its trend level. The paper then uses an error-correction framework to examine empirically informality's long- and short-run relationships. For this purpose, it uses country-level data at annual frequency for a sample of industrial and developing countries, with the share of self-employment in the labor force as the proxy for informal employment. The paper finds that, in the long run, informality is larger in countries that have lower GDP per capita and impose more costs to formal firms in the form of more rigid business regulations, less valuable police and judicial services, and weaker monitoring of informality. In the short run, informal employment is found to be counter-cyclical for the majority of countries, with the degree of counter-cyclicality being lower in countries with larger informal employment and better police and judicial services. Moreover, informal employment follows a stable, trend-reverting process. These results are robust to changes in the sample and to the influence of outliers, even when only developing countries are considered in the analysis.
Informality Trends And Cycles
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Author : Norman V. Loayza
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2012
Informality Trends And Cycles written by Norman V. Loayza and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012 with categories.
This paper studies the trends and cycles of informal employment. It first presents a theoretical model where the size of informal employment is determined by the relative costs and benefits of informality and the distribution of workers' skills. In the long run, informal employment varies with the trends in these variables, and in the short run it reacts to accommodate transient shocks and to close the gap that separates it from its trend level. The paper then uses an error-correction framework to examine empirically informality's long- and short-run relationships. For this purpose, it uses country-level data at annual frequency for a sample of industrial and developing countries, with the share of self-employment in the labor force as the proxy for informal employment. The paper finds that, in the long run, informality is larger in countries that have lower GDP per capita and impose more costs to formal firms in the form of more rigid business regulations, less valuable police and judicial services, and weaker monitoring of informality. In the short run, informal employment is found to be counter-cyclical for the majority of countries, with the degree of counter-cyclicality being lower in countries with larger informal employment and better police and judicial services. Moreover, informal employment follows a stable, trend-reverting process. These results are robust to changes in the sample and to the influence of outliers, even when only developing countries are considered in the analysis.
Informality Labor Market Dynamics And Business Cycles In North Africa
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Author : Olivier Bizimana
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2023-09-08
Informality Labor Market Dynamics And Business Cycles In North Africa written by Olivier Bizimana and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2023-09-08 with Business & Economics categories.
Employment informality is widespread across North Africa. This paper aims to shed light on the role played by the informal sector in labor market adjustments over the business cycle. It finds that the response of labor markets to output fluctuations is more muted in countries with higher informality levels, like the North African economies. The analysis also confirms that informal employment is countercyclical and acts as a buffer during economic downturns in countries with relatively higher informality. However, contrary to what took place in past recessions, informal employment contracted sharply during the 2020 pandemic recession in high informality economies, suggesting that it did not play its traditional countercyclical role. By contrast, employment informality tends to fall modestly or increase during economic upturns, including the post-pandemic recovery. This finding presages the persistence of a large informal sector in the post-covid era in medium- and high-informality countries.
Informality Development And The Business Cycle In North Africa
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Author : Mr. Roberto Cardarelli
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2022-06-09
Informality Development And The Business Cycle In North Africa written by Mr. Roberto Cardarelli and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2022-06-09 with Business & Economics categories.
North African economies are characterized by a significant share of informal activity and employment. About two-thirds of workers in North Africa operate without any formal arrangement and social protection, and about 30 percent of GDP is estimated to be produced by informal workers and firms. This paper finds that while a few key structural characteristics could explain “normal” informality in North Africa, policy distortions explain a large share of excess informality. Among the structural factors that can lead to high informality, the relatively lower level of human capital and younger population help explain the high informality in the region, as low-skilled and young people generally find it more difficult to operate in the formal sector. At the same time, gaps in a set of policy indicators also explain the relatively high informality in North Africa. In particular, this paper finds that gaps in the quality of governance explain about half of the excess informality experienced in North Africa compared with advanced economies. In this context, the expansion of the informal sector in Algeria and Tunisia from the mid-2000s partially reflects the deterioration in a few indicators of their governance and regulatory frameworks. In contrast, the decline in informality observed in Egypt, Mauritania, and Morocco over this period also reflects improved business regulations, governance, and tax systems, in addition to continued progress in economic development. While informality has traditionally buffered regional labor markets against the impact of recessions, the COVID-19 crisis has been different. North African economies have generally exhibited relatively stable unemployment rates, including during recessions, largely owing to their high levels of informality. However, informal employment has fallen significantly in North Africa during the pandemic, as lockdown measures have particularly affected high-informality service sectors. As the pandemic subsides and the lockdown measures are removed, the recovery of regional labor markets could exhibit a stronger-than-usual rebound of informal employment. Ensuring an inclusive recovery from the pandemic would call for renewed efforts to construct more modern (digitalized), more efficient, and fairer systems of social protection, building on the progress achieved in the region during the pandemic in extending safety nets to informal workers.
Informality
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Author : Guillermo Perry
language : en
Publisher: World Bank Publications
Release Date : 2007
Informality written by Guillermo Perry and has been published by World Bank Publications this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2007 with Business & Economics categories.
Analyzes informality in Latin America, exploring root causes and reasons for and implications of its growth. This book uses two distinct but complementary lenses. It concludes that reducing informality levels and overcoming the "culture of informality" will require actions to increase aggregate productivity in the economy.
Cyclical Movements In Unemployment And Informality In Developing Countries
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Author : Mariano Bosch
language : en
Publisher: World Bank Publications
Release Date :
Cyclical Movements In Unemployment And Informality In Developing Countries written by Mariano Bosch and has been published by World Bank Publications this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on with categories.
The Shadow Economy
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Author : Friedrich Schneider
language : en
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Release Date : 2013-02-14
The Shadow Economy written by Friedrich Schneider and has been published by Cambridge University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-02-14 with Business & Economics categories.
Illicit work, social security fraud, economic crime and other shadow economy activities are fast becoming an international problem. This second edition uses new data to reassess currency demand and the model approach to estimate the size of the shadow economy in 151 developing, transition, and OECD countries. This updated edition argues that during the 2000s the average size of the shadow economy varied from 19 per cent of GDP for OECD countries, to 30 per cent for transition countries, to 45 per cent for developing countries. It examines the causes and consequences of this development using an integrated approach to explain deviant behaviour that combines findings from economic, sociological, and psychological research. The authors suggest that increasing taxation and social security contributions, rising state regulatory activities, and the decline of the tax morale are all driving forces behind this growth, and they propose a reform of state public institutions in order to improve the dynamics of the official economy.
Informality Among Formal Firms
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Author : Roberta Gatti
language : en
Publisher: World Bank Publications
Release Date : 2007
Informality Among Formal Firms written by Roberta Gatti and has been published by World Bank Publications this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2007 with Business tax categories.
The Long Shadow Of Informality
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Author : Franziska Ohnsorge
language : en
Publisher: World Bank Publications
Release Date : 2022-03-01
The Long Shadow Of Informality written by Franziska Ohnsorge and has been published by World Bank Publications this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2022-03-01 with Business & Economics categories.
A large percentage of workers and firms operate in the informal economy, outside the line of sight of governments in emerging markets and developing economies. Widespread informality may hold back the recovery in these economies from the deep recessions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic—unless governments adopt a broad set of policies to address the challenges of widespread informality. This study is the first comprehensive analysis of the extent of informality and its implications for a durable economic recovery and for long-term development. It finds that pervasive informality is associated with significantly weaker economic outcomes—including lower government resources to combat recessions, lower per capita incomes, greater poverty, less financial development, and weaker investment and productivity.